Quick Recap: Bulls 88, Lakers 84

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The Chicago Bulls have not beaten the Los Angeles Lakers since December 19, 2006. Tonight, the Bulls bucked that trend by defeating the Lakers 88-84. If you missed the action, let me give you a quick recap.

Three Quarters of a Game

If you take out a dreadful second quarter (which you could never actually do), the Lakers outscored the Bulls 74-64. The Lakers only mustered 10 points in the second after starting so strongly in the first quarter. While I credit the lopsided second quarter to the Bulls finding their stroke from the field, part of the blame also goes to the Lakers' offensive approach. In the first quarter, the Lakers got out to a big lead by running the offense through Pau Gasol, who outplayed Joakim Noah early. Gasol shot 5-for-7 (10 points) in the first quarter and had 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 blocked shot. But in the second quarter, Pau was pretty much non-existent. All it took was one quarter--twelve minutes--of lackluster basketball and the Lakers started their road trip (I don't count an "away" game at Staples Center) off on the wrong foot.

M-V-P Chants in Chicago

After a slow start, Derrick Rose heated up and, to this minute, has probably not cooled off. In the first quarter, Rose was throwing up bricks left and right (2-for-8 from the field). After that, however, Rose was unstoppable. The star point guard dominated the second quarter by using his tenacious dribble penetration to get to the rim and make layups and draw multiple defenders and kick the ball out to three-point shooters. On numerous possessions, he demonstrated his great court vision by firing dazzling passes to cutters and spot-up shooters that the defense were not aware of.

In the third quarter, Rose showed off his new and improved three-point shot. Rose hit three three-balls in the game, giving him 32 on the season; interestingly, Rose hit 32 three-pointers in his first two NBA seasons combined.

But most impressively, Rose hit clutch shots down the stretch which had the Chicago fans on their feet chanting "M-V-P!" whenever he touched the ball. Whether he split a double team to get to the rim or threw up a step back jumper with the shot clock running down, Rose made the big plays when his team needed them most (when the Lakers made their late run).

No Answer Down Low

Don't let Carlos Boozer's 10 points fool you; the Lakers had trouble with the Bulls' big guy down low. Sure, Boozer wasn't raining buckets on the Lakers, but his low-post presence/threat caused a big mismatch that the Bulls exploited ad nauseum. Once the Bulls figured out that running the offense through Boozer would be the difference in the game--they did this in the second quarter--it was all over. Whenever the Lakers sent a double-down defender to help, Boozer, a great passing big man, would fire a pass to a spot-up three-point shooter (Rose on multiple occasions) or make a nice pass that would lead to an open shooter two passes later. This really was the difference in the game, despite how dominant Rose was. In summary, the Lakers need Andrew Bynum back.

Game Tape: What Auburn Can Learn from the Civil War

Bringing the House illustration

On Saturday night, the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers met for the 114th time in the rivalry's storied history. This meeting, however, was different. For the first time in the history of the Ducks' program, the team was on the verge of playing for a national championship. If Oregon could find a way to beat their instate rival, then they could book their tickets to Glendale, Arizona. Meanwhile, the Beavers looked not only to spoil the hopes of their hated counterpart, but also to notch an important sixth victory that would give them bowl eligibility.

Halfway through the annual affair, the destiny of each time was clear. Oregon, sticking to their trademark dizzying pace, dismantled the Beavers the same way that they have dismantled all of their other opponents this season. The Beavers, perhaps not surprisingly, couldn't get enough stops on defense and couldn't move the ball enough on offense.

Typically, I like to frame post-game perspective from a "What We Learned" perspective. But, from this showing, what did we learn that we didn't already know? Nothing. So, instead, let's approach the recap from Auburn's perspective; that is, what will Auburn see when they watch film of this game and see Oregon for possibly the first time. This is a synopsis of Oregon with examples of important points of emphasis drawn from the Oregon State victory. Let's jump right in…

1.  Full Speed Ahead

Anyone who has seen Oregon play this year knows that their offense looks like a blur to opposing defenses; the blur runs by you and before you know it the Ducks are celebrating in the end zone. Here are the scoring drives of the Ducks against the Beavers, with numbers of plays, yards, and time of possession:

• Touchdown #1:  9 plays, 60 yards, 2:43
• Field Goal #1:    4 plays, -7 yards, 0:52
• Touchdown #2:  7 plays, 74 yards, 1:48
• Touchdown #3:  7 plays, 79 yards, 1:43
• Touchdown #4:  6 plays, 71 yards, 2:34
• Touchdown #5:  5 plays, 43 yards, 2:43

As you can see above, the Ducks score fast and often. The problem for Auburn is that there is really no way to slow the Ducks down. The California Bears tried to fake injuries, and while one could argue that the strategy worked, it certainly didn't fit well with those who noticed. I can't imagine Auburn, or any championship-level team, resorting to a delay tactic like that. Realistically, Auburn needs to do three things:  1) Consistently score points on offense with long, grinding drives; 2) Force Oregon into committing turnovers; and 3) Work on the defense's conditioning to remain standing in the second half. There's no trickery involved. The players have to be in shape and prepared for the pace.

Side note:  On Oregon's final drive of the game, it was clear that Chip Kelly wanted to slow their own pace down and begin to burn some clock. Any football coach would have done the same in that situation. But wasn't it odd to see Oregon burn clock? It looked so unnatural. Quarterback Darron Thomas milled around the line of scrimmage for a bit, glanced at the clock, and waited until two seconds to line up under center and snap the ball. It looked like what you would see if you asked a mixed martial arts fighter to spar at only 50% intensity. It was just odd. And the funniest part? The fact that Oregon State still couldn't stop Oregon; LaMichael James ended the drive with a 10-yard touchdown run that began the celebration for the Ducks.

2.  Chippin' Away

Oregon coach Chip Kelly has officially arrived as a big-time head coach. Not only has he introduced and perfected an offensive scheme that maximizes his players' talents and creates dozens of mismatches throughout a game, but his in-game decision-making is very, very solid. In addition to making good decisions on fourth-down situations (Oregon was 2-for-3 against the Beavers on fourth-down), Kelly knows when to pull a trick out of his hat and really punch the other team in the face.

On Oregon's second drive in the second half, Oregon had a 4th and 3 on their own half of the field. Kelly sent out the punt team and had everyone in the stadium and everyone watching on television thinking punt. It was a given. Well, almost. Kelly called a direct snap to the up-back and the punter faked as if the ball had been snapped over his head. Oregon State's defense parted like the Red Sea and linebacker-turned-halfback Michael Clay burst down the field for 64 yards. Three plays later, Thomas completed a 19-yard pass to D.J. Davis for a touchdown and, just like that, Oregon was up 23-7. Kelly has tons of confidence in himself and his players, and that confidence is a powerful force that shows up whenever Oregon plays. He is not afraid to go for two, to onside kick, to fake punt or field goal…he is fearless.

Fortunately, for Auburn, the SEC conference has a Chip Kelly equivalent, at least in terms of gutsiness; his name is Les Miles. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik will have to bring his "A" game to the BCS National Championship if he wants to help Cam Newton take down the Ducks.

3.  Run, Baby, Run

If you cannot keep containment on the edges, Oregon will run wild on you. Just ask the Beavers. Oregon State actually did a decent job defending the run up the middle, likely because they have talented defensive tackle Stephen Paea. But the defensive ends and linebackers were not able to prevent LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner from getting to the edges.

James and Barner combined for 43 carries for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. They were always one step ahead of the defense. And even when it seemed like the Beavers had one of them stopped for a loss in the backfield, they found a way to get loose and turn it into a positive gain. But that's nothing new for James and Barner--they have done it all season long.

James, likely to be the Heisman Trophy runner-up behind Cam Newton, failed to reach 100 yards only twice this season (94 yards versus ASU and 91 yards versus California). He reached the 200-yard mark three times, with a season-high 257 yards against fourth-ranked Stanford. He also rushed for at least one touchdown in all but one game and rushed for two touchdowns or more in eight of eleven contests. James and company average 300 rush yards per game.

However, Auburn has quite a stellar rush defense--good for 10th in the nation. Led by Nick Fairley, the Tigers surrender only 108 rush yards per game, so clearly something has to give.

4.  Dependability

While Oregon's two-headed monster at running back (LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner) get all the attention, the team's quarterback and number-one wide receiver fly under the radar. But Auburn better not sleep on Darron Thomas and Jeff Maehl. While the two players aren't flashy, they will hurt you with their flawless execution.

Although Thomas is only a sophomore and a first-year start in Chip Kelly's system, he plays like a four-year veteran who has the discipline and composure to win a national championship. Never mind the fact that Thomas has only one 300-yard passing game this year; Kelly does not ask him to throw the lights out each week. Instead, Kelly asks him to use his judgment and make sound decisions in the read-option offense, something that many quarterbacks struggle to do. But Thomas seems to always make the right reads and right choices; he knows when to keep it himself, he knows when to give it up to James or Barner, and he knows when to pull the trigger and fire downfield. When he drops back in the pocket, he also shows lots of patience and goes through his progressions. Auburn--likely with Nick Fairley--will need to find a way to rattle Thomas and try to break him down.

Speaking of being rock solid, Oregon wide receiver Jeff Maehl is as dependable as they come. He doesn't have the star power of receivers like Julio Jones or A.J. Green, but Maehl has created a strong reputation for himself this season. Against the Beavers, Maehl finished the game with 7 catches and 86 yards. Surprisingly, Maehl didn't catch a touchdown pass. In fact, this was the first game since week two against Tennessee that Maehl did not catch a touchdown pass--he had caught a TD in nine consecutive games! Why doesn't he get more pub? He is physical, not afraid to go over the middle, has great hands, and is great after the catch. The Auburn secondary will have its hands full with Maehl.

5.  Don't Sleep on the Defense

Everyone knows Oregon can score, but did you know that Oregon can stop teams from scoring at a relatively solid rate? In fact, the Ducks are 14th in the nation in points against, surrendering only 18.4 points per game. To be fair, that number might be dragged down by shutouts against New Mexico and Portland State, but let me dive deeper.

According to cfbstats.com, Oregon ranks first in passes defended and passes broken up and ninth in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Additionally, they are five interceptions off the nation's leader, Alabama, and do not allow many big plays.

Against the Beavers, Oregon's defense set the tone from the very beginning when tenacious linebacker Casey Matthews leveled Beavers' quarterback Ryan Katz, leaving the freshman starter dazed and confused. Matthews and the rest of the Oregon front seven was able to get consistent pressure on Katz, which forced him into throwing four interceptions.

I think Auburn will have the power advantage, but Oregon will have the speed advantage--on both sides of the football. It will certainly be an interesting battle and test of styles. Will the speedy but undersized Oregon front seven be able to chase down and stop Cam Newton, who has been known to truck through defenders?

Conclusion

In summary, Auburn will have to digest a lot after they watch game tape of the Civil War. You can't find another team that is even remotely close to Oregon in style, and it will be tough to mimic in practice. But Auburn is in the big game for a reason and I expect their coaches to prepare them well. This will be a championship game to remember. I'll put up a full preview in the coming weeks.

A Trojan's Guide to the Crosstown Rivalry

At seven o'clock on Saturday night, the entire city of Los Angeles, along with its surrounding suburbs, will have its eyes fixated on the annual USC vs. UCLA football game. Like previous seasons, the game will feature two teams that vehemently despise one another. However, tomorrow's game marks the first time in recent memory that the highly anticipated crosstown showdown will be each team's final game of the season. Even with a victory, UCLA will not have enough wins to qualify for a bowl game. As for USC, well, you know why…

Don't be fooled, though. The lack of postseason implications takes nothing away from tomorrow's game. In fact, it probably adds something. You've got to figure that each team would like nothing more than to end the other's misery and then spend the next twelve months bragging about it. That said, let me spell out exactly what is at stake tomorrow, explain how each team can win the game, and provide some random and entertaining tidbits about the rivalry that I have collected from around the web. Consider this the 2010 guide to the Battle for Los Angeles--through cardinal and gold lenses, of course.

The Prize

Because neither team has an opportunity to play in a bowl game (I know, I've beaten this horse to death), the Trojans and Bruins are essentially playing for pride and for bragging rights, two things that actually matter a lot in this city. For a Trojan, losing to UCLA is simply unacceptable. For a Bruin, losing to USC is what you sign up for, but there is always hope that you will win "next time." To prove how big the upcoming game is, just look at what past coaches in the rivalry have said:

Henry "Red" Sanders (Hall of Fame coach at UCLA):  "Beating 'SC is not a matter of life or death, it's more important than that."

Pete Carroll:  "…this is a big game for…everybody that lives in southern California. [The game is] for our fans and our school. [The game is] an opportunity to own something that's really precious here. You get to anticipate it all year long. Then you get to live with the results of it, too, which are a big deal."

So don't buy any of Lane Kiffin's attempts to minimize the importance of tomorrow's game. It's huge.

In terms of a tangible prize, the winner of the game gains possession of the Victory Bell. Because of USC's recent domination over UCLA, fans that are any bit unfamiliar with the symbol may simply think that the bell is just another piece of the Trojan tradition, like Traveler or lighting the Los Angeles Coliseum's torch. But alas, even though one school may lay claim to the bell for a particular time period, it is technically a piece of both USC and UCLA's tradition. USC looks to renew its ownership rights to the bell for a fourth straight season.

Keys to Victory - UCLA

For the Bruins, the game plan will depend on who plays quarterback for USC. According to a report early Friday, Matt Barkley is expected to make his return and start the game. If that is the case, UCLA will have to cross their fingers and hope to win a shootout. The UCLA defense is terrible. They have given up an average of 30.5 points per game, including allowing an eye-popping 55 points to the Arizona State Sun Devils last weekend. In that game, the Bruins made ASU backup quarterback Brock Osweiler look like Auburn's Cam Newton; the sophomore from Kalispell, Montana, threw for 380 yards, 4 touchdowns, and ran for another score. If a no-name like Osweiler can put on some cleats and dismantle the Bruins like he did, just imagine what a seasoned passer like Barkley could do.

If Barkley does not play, and Mitch Mustain takes the snaps for the Trojans, then UCLA can afford to employ a different strategy. In that case, the Bruins would be better suited to play a slower, grind-it-out type of game. Against Mustain, the key for the Bruins defense would be to put pressure on him and rattle him. Last week versus Notre Dame, USC showed that it was not comfortable giving Mustain too loose of a leash; the offensive play-calling was very predictable and static. The Bruins, if Mustain plays quarterback tomorrow, should note that and play aggressive defense to make Mustain beat them.

Offensively, regardless of whether the Bruins need a shootout or a low-scoring game, the Bruins will rely heavily on their talented running backs to carry the load. If there is anything that the Bruins do well, it is run the football; they currently rank 33rd in the nation in rushing yards per game with 179.9, with a bunch of those yards usually supplied by sophomore Johnathan Franklin. Last week, Notre Dame showed that the Trojans, despite being solid up the middle, were vulnerable to a ground attack; the Irish's two-headed monster of Cierre Wood and Robert Hughes rushed 26 times for 158 yards and one touchdown collectively. Once UCLA establishes the run, the Trojans will be forced to put more guys in the box and play more aggressively at the line of scrimmage, giving quarterback Richard Brehaut some chances to take shots downfield. And while Brehaut is no Matt Barkley, Brehaut is coming off the best game of his career last week when he threw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. If USC has learned anything this season, it's that they cannot underestimate people.

Keys to Victory - USC

For the Trojans, there are two keys to this game. First, quarterback play. While we expect Barkley to start the game and finish the game, sometimes things happen and we have to alter our plans and expectations. Regardless of who takes the majority of snaps, one thing is clear:  the quarterback needs to take care of the football. It all starts with establishing the run game with Marc Tyler. If Barkley starts, the coaches will run early to help ease Barkley back into the swing of things; if Mustain starts, the coaches will run early to help ease Mustain into the swing of things. See a pattern? In order for this to work effectively, the offensive line needs to show up, something that they did not do last week against the Irish. If the run game is able to get going, the quarterback will be able to utilize play fakes and misdirections to create big-play opportunities. Finally, when those opportunities arise, the receivers need to capitalize and make the catches. Last week, countless receivers dropped easy catches. The Trojans need to be in this game mentally as much as they need to be in it physically.

On defense, it's really all up to Monte Kiffin. Last week, the Trojans showed a lot of progress in limiting the Notre Dame passing attack. Sure, they had trouble on the ground, and sure, UCLA is a ground-oriented team. But because UCLA is more run-heavy than Notre Dame, they are more predictable in a sense. Monte should expect and have prepared for plenty of the "pistol" formation. The "pistol" formation is an odd look that only UCLA features in the Pac-10, so main key for the players is to have seen the formation and understand how it works. Beyond that, I think you have to make Brehaut beat you. Yeah, he passed for 321 yards last week, but can he do it again? The Trojans should try to put pressure on him, hit him hard, and hope to take the fight out of him early.

UCLA Jokes

I scanned the internet for the best UCLA jokes/jabs that I could find that were decently creative and not outrageously over the top (e.g. How many light Bruins does it take to…). Here are my top five:

5. A security guard at the Rose Bowl notices two UCLA fans climbing a fence. The guard grabs them by the collars and says "Now just get back in there and watch the game until it finishes."

4. What's the difference between a UCLA football player and a dollar? You can get four quarters out of a dollar.

3. What do medical marijuana and UCLA have in common? They both get smoked in bowls.

2. Do you know why UCLA's football team doesn't have a website? Because they can't string three "Ws" together.

1. What does a UCLA fan do when his team has won the BCS Championship? He turns off the XBox.

NFL Hall of Famers

UCLA (4) - Tom Fears, Jimmy Johnson, Bob Waterfield, Troy Aikman

USC (11*) - Morris Badgro, Frank Gifford, Ronnie Lott, Willie Wood, Ron Yary, Ron Mix, O.J. Simpson, Bruce Matthews, Anthony Munoz, Marcus Allen, Lynn Swann

*Most by any college

Interesting Facts

• Lane Kiffin (35) will be the youngest person to coach his first game in this rivalry.

• The longest winning streak in the series is eight by UCLA from 1991 to 1998; USC's longest win streak is seven from 1999 to 2005.

• The 1967 game is nicknamed the "Game of the Century." Number four USC led by O.J. Simpson defeated the top-ranked Bruins 21-20. USC would go on to win the national championship.

• Staff of the Daily Bruin and Daily Trojan, the schools' respective newspapers, compete yearly in a flag football contest titled the "Blood Bowl," a tradition since at least 1950.

For Your Viewing Pleasure

NFL 2010 Pyramid Rankings: Third Quarter

Bringing the House illustration

With twelve weeks of football in the books, it is time for another round of the Bringing the House Pyramid Rankings. In a season filled with parity and surprises, we finally have a somewhat clear picture of where teams lie in relation to one another. While no one team has set itself apart from the rest, a group of six have clearly established that they have what it takes to win the Super Bowl. See where your team sits on the pyramid and let the debate begin!

 

Tier 7:  Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

32. Carolina Panthers (1-10)

The most anemic team in the league has only two legitimate chances to win another game:  this Sunday at Seattle and in Week 15 at home against Arizona. I doubt they win either contest, but as they say, "any given Sunday."

31. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)

After a year or two of life as a contender, the Bengals have regressed back to their days as the laughing stock of the NFL. The best days of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are behind them; Palmer has gradually declined each season since the 2005-2006 campaign, and Ochocinco has recorded more than 60 yards receiving in only three of his eleven games this season. Did anyone predict that T.O. would have a better season than Ochocinco? Did anyone predict that Ochocinco would have more tweets than yards at this point in the year?

30. Detroit Lions (2-9)

If I were running the Lions, I would shut Matthew Stafford down for the year and focus on next season. The Lions have a lot to look forward to in the future, as the performance of Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, and Stafford this season provided Detroit brass with some reassurance that they drafted wisely. Why risk Stafford's health for some pointless end-of-the-year games?

29. Arizona Cardinals (3-8)

By now, everyone has seen/heard Derek Anderson's ridiculous meltdown in front of the media after Monday night's embarrassing loss to the 49ers. Clearly, the Cardinals do not have adequate leadership to even resemble a stable NFL team. The team has lost six games in a row and looks as though they have thrown in the towel on the season. The saddest part of all of this may be the fact that Larry Fitzgerald's all-world talent is being wasted in its prime--regardless of who takes the snaps, the quarterback can't seem to get Fitzgerald the football (only 59 receptions so far this season).

28. Denver Broncos (3-8)

At this point, the Broncos are simply stat mongers; Kyle Orton continues his march at 3,000 passing yards and Brandon Lloyd continues to have a career season.

Tier 6:  Still Competitive

27. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)

America's Team seems to have its mojo back after the firing of Wade Phillips. But Roy Williams' fumble on Dallas' final drive versus the Saints was the perfect way to sum up an incredibly disappointing season.

26. Buffalo Bills (2-9)

After losing eight games in a row to start the season, the Bills rattled off back-to-back victories over the Lions and Bengals. If you remember my second quarter rankings, I predicted that the Bills would win two in a row, although I had said those wins would be against the Bears and Lions, not Lions and Bengals. The Bills had a third straight victory on its way against the Steelers until Steve Johnson made his infamous drop in the end zone during overtime. If you didn't know about Johnson until his recent gaffe, believe me, this guy is the real deal. He is a true deep threat that has given the fans in Buffalo something to cheer alongside Harvard grad and starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tier 5:  Too Little, Too Late

25. Minnesota Vikings (4-7)

Call me a visionary or consider me lucky, but I predicted before the season started that the Vikings would not make the playoffs. At 4-7, in a highly competitive division, you can officially lock it in. The Vikings just can't seem to find any consistency, and in a year filled with so much parity, consistency is key. On a side note, in their win agains the Redskins, Favre threw neither a touchdown nor an interception, marking the first time since 2006 that he recorded a similar stat line in a game.

24. Cleveland Browns (4-7)

Has there been a more intriguing team than the Browns this year? Not only did nobody expect them to jump the Bengals in the AFC North, but the Browns have arguably the most impressive two-game sweep of any team this season--a 30-17 win over the Saints at the Superdome followed by a 34-14 demolition of the Patriots. The following week, the Browns fell just short of a ridiculous trifecta, losing to the Jets in overtime. Perhaps even more important than their current success is the positive outlook that the organization has for the future; quarterback Colt McCoy looks like the real deal and running back Peyton Hillis has emerged as an elite running back who will straight up steamroll defenders in his path.

23. San Francisco 49ers (4-7)

Having won three of their last four games and playing in a historically terrible division, the 49ers still have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the playoffs. I don't think they will do it, though. They have three tough road games remaining (at Green Bay, San Diego, and St. Louis). In the end, their 1-6 start will be too much to overcome.

22. Tennessee Titans (5-6)

Has any team gone from contender to failure as quickly as the Titans? Probably not (the Cowboys were never a contender during the season, only before the season began). After seven weeks of football, Tennessee was 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Then they lost four in a row, with their most recent defeat a 20-0 effort, or lack thereof, against the Texans. We all know about the Vince Young saga. Randy Moss, in three games with the team, has caught a whopping four passes for 49 yards and zero touchdowns. And their top cornerback looks like he is more interested in mixed martial arts than football. This train is headed for a huge wreck as the season creeps closer to the end.

21. Oakland Raiders (5-6)

Just two weeks ago, the Silver & Black was a trendy pick to win the AFC West. They had rattled off three straight wins, including two blowouts. Since then, however, they have dropped two games in a row, both in ugly fashion. In those two losses, star running back Darren McFadden, or Run-DMC, totaled 18 carries for 16 yards and no touchdowns (which brutally hurt my fantasy team).

20. Washington Redskins (5-6)

While the Skins looked as though they were going to be a dangerous team this season, it is now clear that their season will not include the playoffs. The 59-28 blowout loss to the Eagles, which was pretty much the Mike Vick Show, put the nail in the coffin.

Tier 4:  Spoilers

19. Houston Texans (5-6)

The Texans, another trendy pick to the make playoffs, completely fell off the earth after their bye week. In the month of November, the Texans went 0-4, giving up an average of 30 points in each game.

Update (12/2/10):  The Texans just lost to the Eagles 34-24, which marks another game in which Houston gave up 30+ points to their opponent. While I am tempted to drop the Texans even lower, I will wait simply because it would not be fair to punish them for a loss while all other teams have to wait until Sunday.

18. Miami Dolphins (6-5)

Injuries have really killed this team's chances at the playoffs. When healthy, they are a strong, balanced team stuck in a brutal division. While their offense, with weapons like Brandon Marshall and the emergent Davone Bess, gets all the publicity, their defense has been incredible; the Dolphins are 4th in opponent's passing yards per game (201.4) and 14th in opponent's rushing yards per game (103.9).

17. Seattle Seahawks (5-6)

Like the 49ers, the Seahawks can sniff the playoffs only because they play in the NFC West. Ultimately, I think they fall short for two reasons. First, they don't play defense (30th in opponent's passing yards per game and 22nd in opponent's rushing yards per game). Second, their home field mystique has been shattered twice in recent weeks (41-7 loss to the Giants, 42-24 loss to the Chiefs), and I think that will severely affect the team's confidence going forward.

16. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

You want to see a team whose mojo has completely disappeared? Look at the Colts. The third quarter of the season did not treat them well. Not only did they lose to their top rival New England Patriots, but they were embarrassed on their home turf against a resurgent Chargers team that seems to thrive against Manning. The 36-14 defeat was so bad that Indy fans booed the team off the field. I never thought I would have seen that. The Colts will miss the playoffs this season for the first time since…gee, I don't even know.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)

Except for Mike Thomas' miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans in Week 10, the Jags have pretty much flown under the radar all season long. They are not very flashy, but they are still dangerous and find ways to get the job done, mainly behind the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. While I don't think the Jags will make the playoffs, they have a good chance at finishing the season with an impressive 11-5 record if they can run the table against some middle of the road opponents.

Tier 3:  On the Bubble

14. St. Louis Rams (5-6)

The Rams are my pick to win the NFC West and make the playoffs. And I think they will finish 8-8 on the season. This team has so much to look forward to with Sam Bradford. As a Seahawks fan, I dread the upcoming decade.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

The Bucs are probably the biggest surprise team of the year, and the emergence of Josh Freeman and wide receiver Mike Williams has been nothing short of magnificent. Unfortunately, the Bucs play in the best division in the NFC and, as a result, may miss out on the playoffs.

12. New York Giants (7-4)

After their bye week, everyone had proclaimed the Giants as the best team in the NFC, and some even the best team in the NFL. Well, the third quarter of the season proved that the midseason point is a bit too early to crown a champion, at least this season. The Giants were shocked, at home, against the Cowboys and then had a front row seat to the Mike Vick Show the following week. While the Giants are a good football team, I am beginning to doubt whether they will even make the playoffs this season.

11. San Diego Chargers (6-5)

The Bolts are the hottest team in the league and it looks as though they have hit the stride that will propel them into the playoffs. Philip Rivers continues to strengthen his MVP bid each week and his supporting cast is slowly getting healthy. The AFC West race will go down to the wire, but I think the Chargers will come out on top.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Matt Cassel is quietly having an MVP-caliber season. Cassel has completed 60.4% of his passes, thrown for 2307 yards, and recorded a mind-boggling 22-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His current quarterback rating of 99.7 is fourth in the NFL behind only Mike Vick, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers, all players in the MVP discussion. Perhaps football fans can finally put to rest the thought that Cassel had one fluke year in New England under Belichick's system; he looks like the real deal, regardless of where he plays.

Tier 2:  Sniffing the Super Bowl

9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)

Philly looked unstoppable until they flew into Chicago and got outplayed in the first three quarters against the Bears. In that game, Vick threw his first interception since 2006, albeit on a tipped pass. But Eagles fans should not worry too much because every team delivers a dud every now and then. I expect the Eagles to be standing strong at the end of the season.

Update (12/2/10):  The Eagles just defeated the Texans 34-24. While the win is impressive, I cannot move Philadelphia up in the rankings simply because they notched another victory while other teams remain stagnant until Sunday.

8. Green Bay Packers (7-4)

I still love the Packers because they have a potent passing attack and a vicious defense. Despite a 7-4 record, the Pack has yet to hit full stride. When they do, they will be nearly unbeatable. Having said that, the Packers' four losses have each been by one field goal. How can you not take that into consideration when evaluating their whole body of work? When they win, they win big. And when they lose, they lose close games. Sounds like a dangerous team to me.

7. Chicago Bears (8-3)

All season long, I have said that the Bears are a fraud. But it is tough to look past an 8-3 record and four consecutive victories, the most recent of which was an impressive 31-26 win over the red hot Eagles. I still do not trust Jay Cutler in crucial situations; I still think the Bears lack a ground game; and I still wonder how those receivers are getting the job done. That being said, I have to give them credit for sitting atop the NFC North three-quarters of the way through the season. I do predict, however, that the Packers will overtake them for first place in the division when it's all said and done.

Tier 1:  Super Bowl or Bust

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

While the Steelers were lucky to beat Buffalo and were embarrassed at Heinz Field by the Patriots, I still believe they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. The key for the Steelers will be getting Big Ben healthy for the big games; Roethlisberger looked as though he had finally gotten his timing back before he injured his ankle against the Bills. The team doctors are currently working on a special cleat for Big Ben, which would allow him to play in this Sunday's huge showdown against the Ravens. I have heard whispers that the Steelers need to win this game so that they can win the division and get a game at Heinz Field in the playoffs. But frankly, home field advantage is not too important for the Steelers. Although it would be great to be at home, they have proven that they can win on the road this season; they are 5-1 this year away from Pittsburgh. The reason why? Because their tenacious defense and bruising running game travel like no others in the league.

On a side note, the NFL's campaign against James Harrison continued this week as the league levied another $25K fine against the hard-hitting linebacker for his hit on Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Harrison's fine total is now at $125,000 on the season. While I think the emphasis on eliminating helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless players is great, Harrison's hit on Fitzpatrick looked perfectly legal to me. That is exactly how we teach kids to hit, isn't it? "Put your hat to his chest." Puzzling.

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

The Ravens are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL. If they can secure some sort of home field advantage, at least for one round, they have a chance to make it deep into the playoffs. One thing that puzzles me about the Ravens is why Anquan Boldin has not been featured more. In the past four weeks, Boldin has caught 2, 5, 3, and 3 passes. Furthermore, he has not gone over 50 yards once in that time and has only one touchdown. Sure, the Ravens have plenty of other weapons on offense, but you'd like to see your big offseason acquisition play big.

Finally, as good as the Ravens appear, it seems like they will fall short against the great teams. Two of their three losses come against the top two teams in the Bringing the House pyramid (Patriots and Falcons). And while they have victories over the Jets and Steelers, both victories were by a slim margin and occurred earlier in the year before each opponent had discovered its true identity. The Ravens will be tested this Sunday night against the Steelers and then in Week 15 against the Saints. Fortunately, both games are in Baltimore.

4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)

Who Dat looks like they are regaining their championship form just in time for the home stretch. They have won their past four games, including an impressive 20-10 victory over Pittsburgh. While Drew Brees' performance this season has not been up to expectations, he has improved as of late and will probably carry that momentum to the finish line. Most notably, Brees led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game against Dallas, which may have given him and his team their mojo back. The Saints are in an entertaining division race with the Falcons, and it looks like the two teams will battle until the final week for that top spot. Week 16 at Atlanta will be pivotal.

Despite Brees' struggles this year, the Saints have remained a player largely because of their defense. They currently rank 3rd in passing yards against (197.8 per game) and 15th in rushing yards against per game (108.9).

Most importantly, the Saints, who have been hampered with injuries all season, are finally getting healthy. Starting safety Darren Sharper is participating fully in practice this week, and tight end Jeremy Shockey is right there with him. Running back Pierre Thomas has seen limited action, but is making progress, as well. The Saints don't need these guys back now, but they will need them back eventually if they want to defend their title.

3. New York Jets (9-2)

The Jets' two losses were very, very ugly. They opened the season with a 10-9 loss to Baltimore and then in Week 8 got shutout by Green Bay 9-0. After each loss, everyone, including myself, panicked and said that Mark Sanchez and the offense was not good enough to carry the team to the title. Well, the Jets offense put all that criticism to rest by delivering a November to remember, putting up 23, 26, 30, and 26 points in four games. The key? The return, literally and figuratively, of Santonio Holmes, who has already made a number of big catches. Holmes has given Sanchez yet another weapon on the periphery.

The Jets are currently in a dogfight with the Patriots for first in the AFC East and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Monday night's head-to-head matchup will be huge in determining the fate of both clubs. But after that, both teams have very similar roads ahead; they both play the Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. The only difference? The Jets play at Pittsburgh, whereas the Pats host the Packers. When you combine their remaining schedules with the fact that the head-to-head showdown is at New England, I give the edge to the Pats and see them finishing on top at the end.

2. New England Patriots (9-2)

Randy who? Since trading Randy Moss, the Patriots have gone 3-1 and have looked better than they have all season. Tom Brady, who everyone thought would feel the effects of losing Moss the most, has performed at an even higher level, prompting his MVP campaign to pick up a ton of steam in recent weeks. Since losing his diva target, Brady has averaged 275 passing yards per game and thrown 11 touchdowns versus zero interceptions. Brady has thrown 23 TDs to only 4 picks this year.

The key to the Pats' success has been a balanced attack and big effort from every player on the team. While Brady's performance is rock solid week in a week out, the Pats have gotten valuable contributions from virtually every player on any given week. Last week against the Lions, Deion Branch recorded 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. In their impressive Week 10 dismantling of the Steelers, Rob Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns. In their Week 11 victory over rival Indianapolis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the ball 21 times for 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The list could go on.

When push comes to shove, the Patriots will be incredibly tough to beat. The Randy Moss saga brought the team closer together and gave them some motivation to prove that they can win without their former star. They have adopted a team mentality and bought into a system designed by the best coach in football, and they are led by one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

1. Atlanta Falcons (9-2)

After a perfect November for the Atlanta Falcons, I am finally a believer. The Falcons may have had the most impressive month of any team in football to this point. It started with a victory against a dangerous Buccaneers squad. Next, they defeated arguable the best team at the time, the Baltimore Ravens. Third, they went into St. Louis for a dangerous game against Sam Bradford and company and won by a convincing 34-17 score. And to cap it all off, they held off a surging Green Bay team last week.

The Falcons are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for three reasons. First, Matt Ryan. The third-year quarterback has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the game and is having a great season leading the surprising Falcons. He has thrown 19 touchdowns to only 5 picks and has completed nearly 65% of his pass attempts. In the month of November, Ryan did not throw a single interception en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. More importantly, however, Ryan has shown the ability to pull through when it matters most. Down 21-20 against the Ravens with 1:05 left in the game, Ryan took the ball at his own 20-yard line with a chance to deliver the game-winning drive in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Ryan did not disappoint. He led a 7-play, 62-yard drive in only 45 seconds and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Roddy White. And last week, against the Packers, Ryan took the ball in a tie game with only 56 seconds left on the clock. He managed the clock extremely well knowing the situation; he directed 6 plays for 20 yards in 47 seconds, and gave kicker Matt Bryant the opportunity to kick what turned out to be the game-winning field goal. Matt Ryan, nicknamed "Matty Ice," truly has ice in his veins.

The second reason why the Falcons will reach the Super Bowl is because they are a force at home and will likely have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Finally, the Falcons are such a balanced team that it makes preparing for them so much tougher. Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons on the outside, mainly Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But if you focus too much on defending the pass, the Falcons will run the ball down your throat with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Finally, their balance spans both sides of the ball; the Falcons are second in the NFL in turnover plus/minus at +11.

Three Observations from Notre Dame vs. USC

Saturday night's loss to Notre Dame was an embarrassment for USC, down year or not. Upon further review, here's what I observed in the loss...

1.  Lack of Focus

The team as a whole deserves blame for a general lack of focus in Saturday night's debacle versus Notre Dame. I found three examples of a lack of focus and/or lack of execution.

First, the wide receivers dropped numerous passes that should have been caught. Obviously, the dropped pass that nobody will forget is Ronald Johnson's drop of a Mitch Mustain deep ball on USC's final drive that would have given the Trojans the lead, and maybe the victory. Johnson had beat his defender, Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith, who lost his footing in the muddy field, and had a clear path to the end zone. Mustain put the ball right on the numbers, but Johnson failed to haul it in. (Side note:  If you're an NFL fan, you may have noticed that another wide receiver with the last name Johnson--Steve Johnson of the Bills--dropped a game-winning pass, too. It's tough to say which was the more egregious drop, but I venture to say Steve Johnson's simply because it would have literally ended the game right then.) Two weeks ago, I talked about how Ronald Johnson has pretty much disappeared in the second half of the season, and just to prove my point, check out the following stat:  In the first six games of the season, RoJo recorded over 50 yards receiving in each game. However, in the six games since then, he had only gone over 50 yards once, and he has not recorded a touchdown in the past four games. Mr. Johnson? Paging Mr. Johnson.

Unfortunately, RoJo wasn't the only Trojan who dropped passes; Jordan Cameron, Stanley Havili, and Brandon Carswell whiffed on catches, too. In a game with so little offensive production, four (at least) drops did not help USC's cause.

The second example of a lack of focus is team penalties. USC was penalized eight times for a loss of 47 yards, which amounts to almost one-fifth of the total yards they gained all game. The penalties also came at very inopportune times--a couple of them wiped away what would have been first downs and almost all of them put the team in long-yardage situations that the passing game could not convert.

Finally, USC did not cash in on multiple opportunities, a sign that the execution was just not there. The Trojans caused four turnovers, all of which occurred in Notre Dame territory. However, USC only scored 13 points off of those turnovers. It is rare to see a team lose a turnover battle so lopsidedly like Notre Dame did yet still win a game.

2.  A Shrunken Field

In trying to reason why the Trojans only managed 261 total yards of offense, I arrived at a conclusion that has two interrelated parts. First, it was clear that the coaches were not going to let Mustain throw the ball deep very often, or that Mustain did not have the ability to throw deep consistently, or both. Second, Notre Dame's defensive line dominated USC's offensive line, which prevented the run game from establishing itself. When you combine both of those factors, the field became significantly smaller, and as a result, Notre Dame's defense was able to dictate the action.

Because it was Mustain's first start in four years, it was understandable that the coaches would devise a a pretty conservative game plan--at least in the early stages of the game--to protect Mustain. But it might have been a bit too conservative, regardless of how little he has played in recent years. Mustain attempted 37 passes on the night and averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt; by comparison, Matt Barkley this season averages 7.39 yards per pass attempt--that's quite a difference. And not only was Mustain looking short distance most of the night (with the exception of two deep balls), but the play-calling lacked variety. Over 90% of the time, if Mustain was asked to throw the ball, Kiffin elected to either 1) roll Mustain out to his right, 2) throw a quick wide receiver hitch to the outside, or 3) throw a wide receiver screen pass. It's one thing to beat the opponent over the head with these plays if they are getting you 6, 9, and 15 yards a pop. But it's a completely different story when the plays get you only 3 or 4 yards each time.

As for the battle in the trenches, USC's offensive line was never able to get a consistent push to enable the running backs to run downfield. Ideally, the Trojans would have ran the ball to set up some nice play-action fakes for Mustain and get him some easy opportunities. Instead, the Trojans' 30 rush attempts only gained 80 yards (2.7 yards per carry). As a result, the dozen run fakes that Mustain carried out did little good. Why would Notre Dame's secondary bite on run fakes when the running backs couldn't even get past the line of scrimmage most of the night? I was very surprised to see the offensive line manhandled like they were.

3.  Bright Spots:  Defense and Kicking

The silver lining in this loss was the performance of the USC defense, which is usually the butt of jokes when it comes time to write game recaps.

The defense surrendered only 296 total yards to a team that normally averages over 370 total yards. It did so mainly by shutting down the passing attack; quarterback Tommy Rees passed for only 149 yards and was limited to only 4.7 yards per attempt. USC was also able to stop Notre Dame on third down, something that the defense has failed to do with other opponents; the Fighting Irish converted only five of their fifteen third-down opportunities.

But the biggest reason why their performance is laudable is because they forced four turnovers. And while the offense was unable to capitalize on those turnovers, it was nice to see the defense make game-changing plays once again. The defense picked three Rees passes off, all in enemy territory. Furthermore, it was the manner in which the interceptions were made that is also impressive; both Devon Kennard and Chris Galippo made their interceptions after they had dropped back in zone coverage, which shows their versatility as linebackers. Marshall Jones picked his ball off by making a play on the ball and cutting in front of a receiver, not parking under an overthrown ball. In general, the Trojans were very active in the passing lanes and managed to deflected a lot of passes. This performance was a nice sign that the players may finally be adjusting to Monte Kiffin's schemes.

And finally, every USC fan's favorite punching bag, kicker Joe Houston, redeemed himself in a nice way on Saturday night. Houston was the team's biggest source of offensive production, successfully kicking three field goals and an extra point. His first field goal was kicked from 45 yards away, which was his first successful kick from outside 40 yards all season long. Kudos to Joe Houston. At least for one week, he won't be the most hated kicker in a college town--that honor goes to Boise State's Kyle Brotzman, who had this forgettable sequence of events against Nevada.

Three Observations from the Iron Bowl

Bringing the House illustration

1. In Cam We Trust

A little over one week ago, I announced that I will cast my fictitious Heisman Trophy vote for Auburn quarterback Cam Newton. As I detailed in that post, Newton's gaudy numbers speak for themselves. My only worry was that the pending NCAA and FBI investigations regarding his eligibility would turn off some of the members of the Heisman fraternity, thus making LaMichael James's or Kellen Moore's Heisman bids more hopeful. With the controversy swirling above his head, Newton was asked to deliver in perhaps the biggest Iron Bowl match in the rivalry's long history. For the past several weeks leading up to this game, all the talk surrounded Alabama; the Crimson Tide was coming off of a Thursday game, which gave them one extra day to prepare for Newton's one-man show; the Crimson Tide was regarded by many as the most complete team in the nation; and surely, if there was one defense that could slow Newton down, it was the Tide. Add to those factors the home-field advantage that the Tide would have at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama had won 20 straight games coming into today, and it seemed as sure of an "upset" as one could possibly get.

At the end of the day, however, the Auburn Tigers had Cam Newton, and Alabama did not. Sure, the star quarterback got off to a rough start and turned in his least productive thirty-minute stretch of football this season; in the first half, Crimson Tide defenders were everywhere. Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart called all the right plays at the right times. Bama defenders played with discipline, did not miss any tackles, and flew to the football on every play. The defense was so dominant that if it was your first time watching Cam Newton play quarterback, you would have thought he was nothing special. Through two quarters, Newton had rushed 9 times for -10 yards. Negative ten! And through the air, Newton had only recorded 97 yards, giving him a net of 87 total yards. In his eleven prior games, Newton averaged 303 total yards of offense per outing. So at the half, he was quite a ways off from his normal production output.

But during halftime, Newton and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (more on him later) must have done something to rejuvenate themselves because the Auburn leader was a completely different player. He was, well, his normal self. Against the same defense that had shut him down in the first half, Newton, in the second half, threw for 119 yards, including three touchdowns. He also added 49 rush yards and 1 rushing touchdown. While his total offense (255 yards) was down from his per game average, here is what you should focus on:  Newton rebounded from an abysmal first half by reaching the end zone four times in the second half. He responded to adversity in a big way. And perhaps being overlooked is also the fact that for as bad as Newton played in the first half, he did not turn the ball over at all. If you are Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, you ought to have--and I am sure that he does--100% confidence in Newton in any situation in any game. Cam is that damn good.

2. Guz Malzahn and Ted Roof, Auburn's Unsung Heroes

As we all know, Auburn's first half went terribly; the offense looked overmatched and the defense looked confused. At the end of the first quarter, with Auburn trailing 21-0 and looking like they had lost all hope for a national championship, you could hear (or at least see in the Twittersphere), Tigers fans calling for the heads of Malzahn and Roof, especially the latter, the team's defensive coordinator. But like Newton, the two coaches kept their composure after Alabama delivered its best punches. They went into the locker room at halftime down 24-7 knowing, however, that there was still 30 minutes of football left to play.

On the offensive side of the ball, Malzahn knew that he would have to dial up the passing attack, at least open up a ground game that had been stifled up to that point, if they were to get back in the game. After opening the second half with a predictable read-option, Malzahn called for a deep ball to wide receiver Terrell Zachery. Newton, per usual, delivered a nice pass to his man and Zachery was able to haul it in despite an oncoming Alabama safety who should have intercepted the pass.

After that play, the field was effectively stretched and Auburn began running the ball as we are all used to seeing. On the scoring drive that brought the score to 24-21, Auburn rushed 5 times for 49 yards and the touchdown (Newton up the middle to break the single-season rushing touchdown mark previously held by Bo Jackson and Cadillac Williams--some decent company).

Then on the eventual game-winning drive, Auburn rushed 4 times for 32 yards, 10 of which came on Newton's longest run of the day. They did so while picking up the pace and putting the Alabama defense on its heels. While Auburn's 108-yard rush total is meager compared to their standard 300-yard performances, the run game made a difference in this contest regardless. But it was Malzahn's halftime adjustments to 1) use the pass to open up the run, and 2) speed up the pace of the game, that made the difference.

On the defensive side of the ball, Roof got his boys to play arguably their best half of the season. After Alabama ran its first play of the second half, I immediately noticed a difference in Auburn's defense; in my notes, I wrote "Auburn defense looks faster, more energized, and determined." The Tigers made big hits, deflected passes, and swarmed the football. Check out the following half-by-half statistics of Alabama:

• ALA Total Yards (1st):  379
• ALA Total Yards (2nd):  67

• Greg McElroy (1st Half):  19-for-23, 335 yards, 2 TD
• Greg McElroy (2nd Half):  8-for-14, 42 yards, 0 TD

• Julio Jones (1st):  7 catches, 174 yards, 1 TD
• Julio Jones (2nd);  3 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD

• ALA Rushing (1st):  16 carries, 44 yards, 1 TD
• ALA Rushing (2nd):  14 carries, 25 yards, 0 TD

The defensive turnaround was the biggest story of the game in my book. With Auburn trailing at the half, it was irrelevant, to a certain extent, how many points Newton could put up in the second half if Auburn's defense continued to surrender big plays and clock-eating drives to the Crimson Tide. Roof found a way to get the job done and, as a result, his job should be secure.

3. Nick Fairley, the Next Warren Sapp

Critics call Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley's style of play dirty and overaggressive; advocates call it hard-nosed and passionate. Say what you want to about Fairley--the guy is a monster and a game-changer on the interior line.

On Alabama's third drive of the game, Fairley rushed through the middle of the offensive line and sacked McElroy. On that play, Fairley was actually lined up as a linebacker, which showed his great versatility as a defensive player. Fairley was then called for excessive celebration--a call which I did not agree with. Fairley, whether justified or not, has had, and will have, a target on his back. The call gave Bama a 4th and 4, which the coaching staff seized as an opportunity and the players subsequently converted. Not only was the call very questionable, but it was a big momentum shifter. Fairley had given the Tigers a big stop on third-down, but that loss of yardage was negated.

On the Crimson Tide's fifth drive from scrimmage, when the Tide was at the Tigers' goal line, Fairley made an amazing play on running back Trent Richardson. Fairley, from his knees, crawled as fast as he could and managed to trip up Richardson to prevent a touchdown. Not only was it a great hustle play and a show of his athletic ability, but it was a big stop for the Tigers in that it prevented the Tide from reaching the end zone; they held Alabama to only three points.

On Alabama's next drive, Fairley caused a huge turnover in, yet again, the red zone. He ran right past Alabama's guard and leveled McElroy, who coughed up the football. Fairley then had the awareness to scurry to the football and cover it up to retain possession. It was incredible.

We have all seen just how much of a difference that a dominant defensive tackle can make in a game. At the pro level, Warren Sapp, also known as the QB Killa, was best known for dominating in the middle. This season, we have seen the Detroit Lions' rookie Ndamukong Suh provide a lot of stability in the middle of their defensive line. Fairley will do the same for an NFL team someday.

A Pinstripe Predicament

Bringing the House illustration

Imagine that you are the owner of a Fortune 500 media company. You are interested in taking your company to the next level, so you decide to look for a young, talented person that you can groom into a star ad exec. On a recruiting trip to Harvard Business School, you encounter the prized jewel of the graduating class--a second-year MBA student who is nationally recognized as the "next big thing" in the industry. You immediately offer him a job upon his graduation, complete with an insane salary, a gigantic signing bonus, and a luxurious office. He accepts your offer, he graduates, and the marriage officially begins. Over the course of the next several decades, your star ad exec catapults to not only the top of his division, but the top of the company. In addition to closing the most and the largest accounts on a yearly basis, the ad exec has become the face of your company, which has now become the leading media organization in the country. When a person thinks of your company, he/she immediately thinks of the ad exec. They are one.

However, lately, the ad exec's individual performance has slipped to levels not only below his typical output, but below the average for exec's that earn similar salaries. Fortunately, the time has come to restructure his employment contract. What should you do? 

• Should you continue to pay him big money for a level of production that you could get from someone else for a lot less money? 

• Should you try to offer him less money and hope that he understands the offer as strictly a business decision with no hard feelings?

• Or should you simply let him go to another company and start a new chapter in your organization? 

• How will your millions of shareholders react to your decision? 

• Is your public relations department prepared to deal with the implications of your choice?

In essence, the New York Yankees are experiencing a similar predicament right now with its future Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter. The beloved team captain's contract (10-year, $189 million) has officially ended, and it is now time for Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman and his crew to work with Jeter and his agent, Casey Close, on a new deal. Earlier today, November 23, sources confirmed that the Yankees offered Jeter a three-year, $45 million contract. Jeter has yet to publicly deny the offer, but Jeter and his agent have made it clear that the Yankees star wants a long-term deal (at least four years, preferably fix or six). As a result, it appears that the two sides remain at a nightmarish impasse.

For starters, I empathize with each side. If I were Jeter, I, too, would look for a long-term deal to secure my employment. As athletes get older, job security decreases significantly for various reasons, including lower production, higher risk of injury, and the appeal of younger talent. Athletes have only a small window of opportunity to earn money for their athletic ability; the great athletes are usually done by their mid-thirties. Thus, I understand the reasoning behind Jeter's demands. On the flip side, the New York Yankees, like every other baseball organization, is first and foremost a business. The aim of their business is to win championships and make money in the process. All decisions regarding player personnel must be made with this goal in mind. As a result, I can also see where the Yankees are coming from.

But let's be real here:  Derek Jeter and his ego are holding the New York Yankees hostage in this contract negotiation saga. Regardless of what you think about Jeter (I happen to think very highly of him), it is obvious that he is abusing his status as an all-time Yankees legend to milk as much money and as many years as he can out of this deal. Jeter and his agent can make all the arguments that they want to about Jeter's intangibles and non-quantifiable effects on the franchise. Jeter is the face of the franchise--we get it. But how can anyone justify paying top-of-the-line money for mediocre on-field talent? If advertising, branding, and image are worth so much, why not just divert some of the money that you would pay Jeter over to a group of elite marketing executives instead?

Baseball is, and always has been, a game of numbers. Frankly speaking, Jeter's numbers do not warrant the contract that he desires. Jeter is 36 years old and he just turned in the worst statistical season of his career. He was arguably the Yankees' weakest offensive starter, and his defense, despite a highly-questionable Gold Glove award, clearly deteriorated. Last season, Jeter had the third-highest salary among all players in baseball. Earning $22.6 million, Jeter out-earned teammate Mark Teixeira ($20.625M), Detroit Tigers triple crown threat Miguel Cabrera ($20M), Phillies slugger Ryan Howard ($19M), and the list goes on. Furthermore, when you compare Jeter to other shortstops in the league, it becomes even more clear that Jeter is overpaid; Phillies star shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, 32, will make $8.5M in 2011; Dodgers shortstop, Rafael Furcal, 32, will make $12M next season; and 26-year old Florida Marlins shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, widely regarded as the most complete player in baseball, will earn only $11M, half of what Jeter made last season.

The bottom line is that this is an extremely delicate situation for both parties. Derek Jeter has a lot of leverage, and it is clear to me that he is really trying to use that to his advantage. The Yankees, meanwhile, really want Derek Jeter back, but they don't need him back. And that may be the one piece of knowledge that guides them throughout this entire process. No one can predict exactly how this scenario will play out, but I am convinced that, when all is said and done, Jeter will be the one who compromises his wishes the most. While a player and an organization may appear to be one and to be equal (like an ad exec and his media company), a player is never bigger than the team, the organization, or the brand.

Five Observations from USC vs. Oregon State

Bringing the House illustration

Entering Saturday night's game, the USC Trojans and the Oregon State Beavers could not have been going in more opposite of directions. In its prior two games, the men of Troy swept the Arizona schools and gave themselves great momentum heading into Corvallis, Oregon, where it had not won since 2004. Meanwhile, the Beavers had lost its past two contests--a 17-14 affair at UCLA and an embarrassing 31-14 defeat on its home turf against the lowly Washington State Cougars. When you combine those factors with the fact that Beavers star wideout James Rodgers is done for the season, it seemed as though the stars were aligned for USC to end its recent history of forgettable performances in Corvallis. Unfortunately for the Trojans, star alignment matters only in astrology, not in football.

Here is what we learned after watching the Beavers beat the Trojans 36-7…

1.  Lane Kiffin Still Finding His Way

In previous posts, I have addressed Lane Kiffin's emergence as a great play-caller. He has shown creativity, courage, and strong leadership during a tumultuous season at USC. Earlier this season, on numerous occasions, Kiffin mentioned the need for USC to establish an identity. He felt that it was important that the team create a brand of football, an approach so strong and unique that the team could rely upon it in every game. Last night, I saw a coach that went against the philosophies that he himself had set in previous performances. I saw a coach still tinkering with his own identity.

Kiffin decided to "go for it" on six different fourth-down situations. The Trojans converted a total of two of those attempts. While I generally advocate fourth-down attempts, the approach to these fourth-downs made me scratch my head. In several of those situations, the Trojans ran to the line of scrimmage in a hurry after they came up short on third-down and tried to run a play to catch the Beavers off guard or in the middle of a substitution. That strategy worked exactly zero times. The strategy itself is not bad if you are accustomed to an up-tempo style and have disciplined personnel (think Oregon Ducks). But USC has never been that type of team in past seasons, and it certainly has not been that type of team this season. And while the Trojans may work on that during practice here and there, I question whether the team should employ such a divergent approach in highly-crucial fourth-down situations.

Next, Kiffin continues to mismanage the running back corps. While he cannot really do anything to prevent in-game injuries like the one suffered by Marc Tyler last night, Kiffin basically puts each running back in his dog house at least once per game, and I highly doubt that this treatment helps build confidence for these young players. Look, there is no doubt that the USC running backs have talent; they were all four- and five-star recruits out of high school with incredible blends of athletic ability. But what separates great backs from mediocre backs, besides injuries, is opportunity, otherwise known as carries. Check out the number of carries per game that some of the other Pac-10 Conference running backs get compared to what USC running backs get:

Rush Attempts Per Game:

LaMichael James - 25.0
Jacquizz Rodgers - 21.7
Shane Vereen - 18.9
Chris Polk - 17.9
Stepfan Taylor - 17.8
Marc Tyler - 13.3
Allen Bradford - 8.2

The averages for Dillon Baxter, C.J. Gable, and Stanley Havili are so low that it is not even worth including on the list. So, how does Kiffin expect any of his running backs to establish a rhythm and perform at a high level each week? With so little reps and quality playing time, I just don't see that happening for any running back regardless of what his name may be.

2.  Matt Barkley Needs to Improve His Judgment

Everyone is going to blast Barkley for the pick-six that he threw to Beavers cornerback Jordan Poyer to start the second quarter. Barkley had a receiver running an out route, which is an easy route for corners to jump if the quarterback stares down the receiver and throws a lazy ball. And that is exactly what happened last night. But there were other instances of poor judgment by Barkley that you cannot see in the box score.

On USC's fourth drive of the game, Barkley was under pressure and eventually sacked for a loss of nine yards. During the play, while Barkley was being pulled down by the Oregon State defender, Barkley desperately tried to throw the ball away and ended up heaving the ball about five yards in front of him (the referee ruled that his knee had hit the ground before he had released the ball). While nothing disastrous came of this play (beyond the loss of yardage), Barkley's decision to try to throw the ball away while being dragged to the ground is one that the coaches need to correct. It is a bad habit of quarterbacks who cannot see the big picture; that is, it is a short-sighted decision to "make a play." Barkley did it last week and he did it again last night. In the best-case scenario, it saves a couple of yards. In the worst case, it leads to turnovers and points for the opposition. Ultimately, the bottom line is that winning quarterbacks eat the loss of yards and tuck the football.

3.  Jacquizz Rodgers Owns USC Defense

So far in his career, Rodgers has played USC three times. Each time, Rodgers dominated the USC defense. Here is his career line against the Trojans:

83 carries, 427 yards (5.14 yards/rush), 4 TDs
13 catches, 80 yards (6.15 yards/catch), 1 TD

That's pretty darn impressive considering 1) USC's athletic defense and 2) Rodgers' size (if you buy the idea that small running backs can't be successful). For whatever reason, the Trojans just can't stop that guy (or his brother, if he plays). The Trojans seem to have more trouble with small, quick running backs than they do with big, bruising backs. But why?

The Trojans have always been a very quick defense that flies to the ball quicker than most teams in the country. Last night, the Trojans looked quicker than they have looked all season long. Although they were burned a couple times on the edges, they, for the most part, were able to stuff runs to the outside and had three or four players involved in those stops. It baffles me how Rodgers has so much success against the defense, regardless of who is trying to tackle him. Years ago Rodgers ran all over one of the best linebacking corps in the history of college football (Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews). He has consistently run for big gains up the middle of the defense despite gap-pluggers like Jurrell Casey and Fili Moala.

Simply put, Rodgers is just a great running back who has USC's number. It is uncertain whether Rodgers will enter the upcoming NFL Draft, but if he does, USC will be very, very happy to see him go.

4.  For USC, Final Two Games Will Be a Test of Character

The Trojans entered Saturday night's game 7-3 and it looked as though they could win their remaining three games to finish the regular season 10-3, which would be quite an accomplishment for Kiffin and his staff given the circumstances. Instead, the Trojans return to Los Angeles battered (worst loss to Oregon State dating back to 1914), bruised (Barkley's high-ankle sprain leaves him questionable for the next game), and perhaps unmotivated (double-digit win total is now out of reach like their postseason). But USC's final two games are against the team's two biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA. While both the Fighting Irish and the Bruins have had their troubles this season, both teams would like nothing more than to kick the Trojans while they are down.

It will be very easy for USC to pack it in for the rest of the season. Barkley has had high ankle issues in the past, and from a big-picture perspective it might be best to sit him out and start the recovery process toward next season. Why risk a long-term injury for two seemingly meaningless games? Furthermore, your prized running back Marc Tyler is also banged up, and with Allen Bradford in his last season, it might be a reasonable move to let Tyler focus on next season and let Bradford get the bulk of the carries to up his draft stock and send him out on a high note.

Regardless of what personnel Kiffin decides to go with, one thing is clear:  Although the next two games carry no postseason implications, they mean a lot to the fans, the program, and USC tradition. How the coaches approach the final two games and how the players prepare and perform will go a long way in establishing that identity that Kiffin desires. Because of the sanctions, USC will not have an opportunity to be a champion, of anything, this season. But in the next two weeks, the Trojans will have the chance to play like champions and salvage what they can of this season.

5.  For Oregon State, Final Two Games Will Make or Break the Season

Before the season began, the Beavers were a trendy pick to contend for the Pac-10 title. From a scheduling standpoint, Oregon State set itself up well for BCS praise with out-of-conference tilts against TCU and Boise State to complement the grind of the Pac-10's round-robin format. But after it lost two of its first three games and another three of four during a stretch from mid-October to mid-November, the Beavers found themselves on the wrong side of bowl bubble. While Saturday night's victory over USC certainly helped, Oregon State must now win one of its two remaining games to become bowl eligible. Their two remaining opponents? Sixth-ranked Stanford on the road and #1 Oregon in the annual Civil War rivalry game. It's pretty tough to imagine the Beavers winning either of those games, but with a bowl game berth on the line, you cannot count out coach Mike Riley and the scrappy Beaver bunch. If they do happen to lose both games, Oregon State fans have to wonder whether scheduling such a tough set of games was worth the price.

The Missing Man in the Middle: Why the Lakers Need Andrew Bynum Back

Image via Wikipedia

While the Lakers have gotten off to a very impressive 10-2 start to the season, the team has done so despite the absence of its third-best player, center Andrew Bynum. And while it's generally accepted that Bynum's presence makes the two-time defending champions a better team, it may be hard to clearly see how his presence has impacted the team because the Lakers have generally managed to blow their opponents out of the water. In order to truly understand Bynum's effect, you have to crunch some numbers.

The first and most obvious place to look is shot-blocking. Last season, Bynum's seven-foot frame blocked 1.4 shots per game (keep in mind he played only 30 minutes per game). As a team last season, the Lakers blocked 5.2 shots per game, which put them 11th among all teams. Through twelve games this season, the Lakers rank 24th in the NBA with only 3.9 blocked shots per contest. The lack of a shot-blocker to protect the rim has resulted in an increase in the number of points in the paint per game scored by the Lakers' opponents.

Last season, the Lakers ranked 10th in the league in opponent points in the paint per game, surrendering just 40.2 per game. So far this season the Lakers have given up 44.2 in the paint per game, making them 22nd in the league. While those four points might not seem like a lot, you would be surprised how many games in the NBA are decided by margins like that; through its first twelve games, the Lakers have had four games decided by five points or less. And remember, not only does a shot blocker directly reject balls from reaching the basket, but a shot blocker changes the trajectory of shots and serves as an intimidation factor that forces penetrating players to make the extra pass. The numbers do not capture the full effect.

The increased points in the paint have led to an overall increase in points per game by the Lakers' opponents. If you have watched any Lakers basketball this season, you have probably noticed that the Lakers have only held their opponents under 100 points in four of their twelve games. Last season, it was the Lakers' defense that really enabled the team to win its second consecutive championship. The Lakers held opponents to only 97.0 points per game (10th in the NBA). This season, without Bynum, the Lakers have allowed a whopping 102.8 points per game, which is worse than the defensively-inept Golden State Warriors, (102.7), the 2-10 Philadelphia 76ers (102.4), and the LeBron James-less Cleveland Cavaliers (99.1); the Lakers' 102.8-mark is good for 19th-best in the league, definitely not a stat fit for a champion.

Finally, if you are an astute reader and basketball fan, you are probably interested to see the effect Bynum's absence has had on the team's rebounding numbers. Oddly enough, the Lakers are near the top of the league in defensive, offensive, and total rebounds per game. Furthermore, their rebound averages are higher than their averages for last season. However, these stats are a bit misleading. Instead, let's look at how the Lakers' opponents have rebounded against the Lakers without Bynum in the lineup to take up space and grab boards. The Lakers currently rank second-to-last (29th) in opponent offensive rebounds per game, allowing 14.3 offensive rebounds per content to their foes; that number is up from last season (11.2). If you want to win in the NBA, you have to limit your opponents' second-chance points.

Ultimately, although it's great to see the Lakers win shootouts in early November, any NBA fan will tell you that it's much more satisfying to see your team win the close, grind-it-out games in May and June. If the Lakers want to win those games and lock up a three-peat, they will need to get Bynum back in the lineup at full strength so that he can plug up the middle and shore up their defense. Here's to hoping that Bynum's knee holds up better than Greg Oden's. Oh, and for pete's sake, stay out of trouble, big fella!

A Momentary Lapse: What to Make of Kobe Bryant's Latest Commercial Cameo

A little over one week ago, on November 8, video game developer/publisher Activision released another installment in its longstanding military combat series, "Call of Duty." The latest rendition, "Call of Duty:  Black Ops," set a single-day sales record by selling more than 5.6 million copies, which gave Activision more than $360 million. While those record-setting numbers are incredibly impressive, and while I have heard from numerous sources that the game is amazing, I mention this particular video game for another reason:  its television commercial, reproduced below.



As you can see, this one-minute spot, officially dubbed "There's a Soldier in All of Us," features several "ordinary" citizens--a young lady in high heels, a chunky girl with glasses, a construction worker, and a fast-food employee, to name a few--taking their shots (no pun intended) at being a soldier in battle. But it also features two prominent celebrities one prominent sports icon and a talentless celebrity, Kobe Bryant and Jimmy Kimmel, respectively, bearing arms and wreaking havoc.

At the 0:28 mark in the video, Bryant points and fires several rounds of what looks like an Uzi. The commercial cuts to several other combatants and, seconds later, returns to Kobe, who flashes a smile and then whips out what looks like a grenade launcher labeled "Mamba." When I first saw the commercial, I thought it was awesome. The first thing that stands out is the music selection; The Rolling Stones' "Gimme Shelter" provides an incredible backdrop to the action. Simply put, the pairing of the music and action is perfect.

The second thing that I love about the commercial is the originality/creativity. It is clear that the producers had a message/theme in mind; that is, the game is fit for everyone. And they successfully communicate that message by using caricatures of common folk in place of soldiers in the heat of action. Can you think of a video game that has/had a commercial as creative as this? I certainly cannot.

After the first time that I saw the commercial, I did not think of it for another two weeks or so until today when I read this article by ESPN.com columnist Tim Keown, who asserts that Kobe's participation in the commercial was an ill-advised decision.  His stance is not what that is difficult to imagine; Keown believes that Bryant is a global icon that kids everywhere, especially those in inner cities where violence is rampant, idolize. And by wielding an Uzi and a rocket launcher, Bryant subtly/indirectly condones violence and guns.

While Keown mainly addresses the moral implications of Kobe's involvement in the "Call of Duty" campaign, I would like to touch on something that is more sports- and athlete-related. Specifically, I am very shocked that Kobe chose to participate in the way that he did. I have heard the possible justifications for his role-play, but I do not think that the ends justify the means. In other words, I do not think that Kobe's furtherance of his military support, as demonstrated through his participation in this game's campaign, justified the association between Kobe and guns/violence that the imagery produced.

What is most startling, however, is that Kobe Bryant was the one who did this. It wasn't Gilbert Arenas or Delonte West, who both have well-known run-ins with the law for gun possession. It was Kobe Bryant, the best player on the planet, the five-time NBA Champion, and, most importantly, the most self-aware and image-obsessed athlete not named Alex Rodriguez or LeBron James. Ever since his infamous night in Eagle, Colorado, the Los Angeles Lakers star has meticulously crafted every centimeter of his public image. Kobe went from a selfish, point-hoarding star to a selfless, team-oriented leader. He went from being publicly ripped by head coach Phil Jackson to having a very close relationship with the Zen Master today. He went from being a young, immature and shortsighted athlete to a wise, grounded family man who has his two daughters by his side for every post-game interview. He even changed his jersey number a few years back. All of these aforementioned things were Kobe's efforts to turn a new leaf in his career, to become a new man and be everything that the fans and media have wanted him to be for so long. And after years of hard work, he finally achieved it. Fans may never forget the Eagle, Colorado, incident or Kobe's early disruptive years, but his lasting legacy will be a guy who managed to change his on and off-court personas to both his own and his team's benefit, which ultimately resulted in, at least, a handful of titles.

And after all that, Kobe decides to "pack some heat" and make a cameo in this "Call of Duty" commercial? It's a questionable decision at the very least. Look, I'm not saying this commercial will be the downfall of Kobe Bryant and his legacy. It most likely will not be. But all I'm saying is that the choice seems a bit out of the ordinary considering the player/man at hand. Regardless of how cool the commercial turned out, how great the game sold or continues to sell, or how brief Kobe's appearance actually was, something just doesn't seem right.