Sunday, October 31

Three Observations from Oregon vs. USC


In the biggest game of the Lane Kiffin Era thus far, the Trojans fell in a shootout Saturday night to the Ducks. Oregon's quick-strike offense overwhelmed the Trojans defense and quarterback Matt Barkley just could not muster enough points to keep up. Looking beyond the box score, we learned the following:

USC's Defensive Problems Result from Subpar Personnel


The defense has been criticized all season long here at Bringing the House and by most media outlets. While it has delivered some nice performances (Virginia and California), it has also laid down some duds (Hawaii, Washington, and Stanford). Throughout the season, different parts of the defense have taken the blame; first, we thought new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin's schemes were too new for the players and that the adjustment period would inevitably be filled with hiccups; and second, we hypothesized that a slew of unfortunate injuries prevented the defense from fielding its best possible lineup.

Well, this weekend, the Trojans put those theories to the test. The defense has had seven weeks of playing under the elder Kiffin and showed, in last week's game against California, that it had finally caught on to the scheme. The Trojans came off a bye week, which would allow Kiffin to extra time to prepare the defense for Oregon's offensive attack. And finally, the extra week would also allow the Trojans to rest up and enter the important showdown fully healthy.

So much for all of that. While the Trojans forced several three-and-outs, I would attribute their brief moments of success to luck and adrenaline, not preparation and skill (the Ducks dropped multiple passes that could have gave them first downs). The fact is that the Trojans' defense played awful. Not only did they surrender 311 yards on the ground and another 288 through the air, but they played undisciplined football that made you wonder what Kiffin and his staff were doing for the past two weeks. And while I think it would be easy to blame the coaches for this performance, I think I have finally discovered the root of the problem:  the players.

While the players are not terrible, they just aren't good enough. And they certainly don't live up to the defenses of the past at USC. It's not that they gave up all of those yards to this juggernaut--everyone does. But it's the manner in which they gave up those yards:  players were constantly out of position, bit on play-action fake after play-action fake, and missed countless tackles. Shareece Wright led the team in my new statistic, "plays caught out of position." On Oregon's first drive, Wright blew his coverage on wide receiver Jeff Maehl's comeback route that resulted in a key third-down conversion for Oregon; in the second quarter, Maehl burned Wright for a 45-yard touchdown catch (Wright was trailing him by about 10 yards); and in the third quarter, Wright inexplicably peeled off Maehl as Maehl broke his route inside on a 3rd and 13 and caught the ball for a 30-yard touchdown.

The bottom line is this:  we have a lot of defensive players who were highly recruited but have not yet lived up to their billing. At the same time, these defensive players were brought in by Pete Carroll for a particular style of defense, which is completely different than Monte Kiffin's approach. I still have faith that Kiffin can build a dominant defense, but he will need to bring in the right players to do so. Until then, Trojans fans should expect let downs similar to this one for the rest of the season. Which brings me to my next topic…

Will the Run Defense Hold Up Against Oregon State and UCLA?

Never mind the insane amount of yards that the defense allowed on the ground in the first three quarters of Saturday night's game. Instead, look at how many yards the team allowed in the fourth quarter. The key to winning football games, at any level, is stopping the run. If you cannot stop the run, you cannot win games; if you trail in a game, good running teams will use the run to drain the clock and prevent your offense from having enough time to mount a comeback. And that is exactly what happened to the Trojans.

With 12:20 left in the game and USC down 43-32, Oregon started a drive with the ball on their own 36-yard line. Here is the play-by-play for that drive:
  • LaMichael James rushed for 8 yards.
  • Darron Thomas rushed for 3 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 2 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 15 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 5 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 4 yards.
  • Darron Thomas rushed for 5 yards.
  • Darron Thomas completed pass to Lavasier Tuinei for 4 yards.
  • Remene Alston, Jr., rushed for loss of 1 yard.
  • Darron Thomas completed pass to Remene Alston, Jr., for 2 yards.
  • Rob Beard kicked 34-yard field goal.
The positive is that USC's defense held the Ducks to only three points; a touchdown at that juncture of the game would have been devastating. However, Oregon ate up 5 minutes and 2 seconds on that drive, leaving USC only 7 minutes to score a touchdown, make a defensive stop, and score another touchdown. USC failed to score on the ensuing drive after Barkley threw an interception, and with 5:25 left in the game, up two scores, Oregon took the ball and did this:
  • Darron Thomas rushed for 3 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 10 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 45 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 2 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 5 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 7 yards.
  • LaMichael James rushed for 8 yards for a touchdown. 53-32, game effectively over.
If it wasn't for James' 45-yard burst, this drive would have taken longer than 2 minutes and 40 seconds. Either way, SC's defense could not stop the run, precious seconds left the clock, and Oregon put the nail in the coffin.

It does not matter how many points Barkley and this offense can put up. If the defense cannot play well and protect a lead, this team will play from behind in every game and not be able to catch up. USC has two remaining games against teams that are run-oriented, and while I hate to admit this, I see the defense having trouble against both teams.

First, on November 20th, the Trojans will travel to Corvallis to the play the Beavers. The Trojans have lost 3 of their past 4 games against Oregon State, including both games in Corvallis. In the past two showdowns, the defense had trouble tracking down the small and elusive Jacquizz Rodgers. In 2008, Rodgers gashed the Trojans 37 times for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Then last season, while the Trojans won the game, they surrendered 113 yards to Rodgers plus an additional 42 yards to his brother, James Rodgers, who is out for the rest of this season. Quizz has four games with over 100 yards rushing already this season, and he also scored a combined seven touchdowns in his past two games. If the Trojans want to beat Oregon State, they need to stop that little giant.

The same goes for their game against UCLA and its running backs Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman. While most everything about the Bruins is laughable, their running game is far from it. In fact, it's probably the only thing Westwood Junior College UCLA has going for it; they currently rank 117th in Division-I in passing yards per game, 96th in points per game, and 92nd in points allowed per game. However, the run game ranks a surprising 26th in the nation by producing 192.5 yards per game. The UCLA ground attack turned in its most notable performance of the season in a 34-12 thrashing of Texas in Austin earlier this season. During that game, the Bruins rushed 56 times for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. If the Trojans plan on beating their crosstown foe, the defense will need to stop the run and get the ball back into Barkley's hands. Look, I am not saying that the Trojans will lose these two games. But these won't be gimmes either. If the Trojans don't make an emphasis to stop the run, these will be dangerous games that I could see going down to the wire.

The Oregon Ducks:  Your Future National Champs?


They sure look like a champion out there, don't they? On the road, they went for and converted a two-point conversion on the first possession of the game; they relentlessly attacked a rival deep into the fourth quarter; and they answered each USC score with a resounding score of their own. The offense, aka the blur, is so unique, entertaining, and dominant that you have to wonder if there is any team in the country that can handle it. What defense can maintain that insane pace, the stamina, and the discipline necessary to even contain the Ducks? Alabama, maybe? This Ducks team is better than the Ducks team of last season because Darron Thomas is a better passing quarterback than Jeremiah Masoli. So, in essence, this is an attack with even higher potential because there is a better passing element to it--Thomas went 19-for-32 for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Trojans.

The most interesting part of this team is that you cannot focus on any one player. Sure, LaMichael James is a stud at running back, but if he misses a game then the Ducks will just plug another running back, like Kenjon Barner, in and the well-oiled machine will not miss a beat. Just look at the transition the team made from Masoli to Thomas. This isn't a star or player-driven team--it's a scheme and system-driven team. And that might be harder to stop than the Cam Newton's of the world.

As a USC fan, I am torn whether I want Oregon to play in the BCS National Championship Game. Although Oregon would represent the Pac-10 well, an Oregon appearance and possible victory would elevate that program and increase its ability to recruit high-profile players that USC also targets. As a college football fan, however, I cannot hide my desire:  I want to see Oregon play  and dominate an SEC team like Auburn or Alabama in the big game.

Monday, October 25

NBA Preview: Pacific Division

Bringing the House illustration
Los Angeles Lakers

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  57-25
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Won NBA Championship

Key Additions: 
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Theo Ratliff

I love what the Lakers did this offseason. The back-to-back champs got even stronger with the additions of Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, and Theo Ratliff. Blake gives the Lakers an unselfish veteran point guard who handles the ball well and should fit nicely into Phil Jackson's triangle offense. He has good court vision and is a solid passer. What most people don't realize, however, is that Blake has a nice shot, as well. Blake hit 39.5% of his three point attempts and 75.0% of his free throw attempts last season. By comparison, the second-string point guard that Blake replaces, Jordan Farmar, hit only 37.6% of his threes and a putrid 67.1% of his free throws (liability, anyone?).

The Barnes acquisition is genius. In fact, once I realized that Barnes was a free agent, I began campaigning for his pickup. When the rumors came out that said the Lakers were looking at Raja Bell, I openly criticized that potential move and suggested they look instead at Barnes. Well, they listened. Barnes not only gives the Lakers another three-point shooter to stretch opposing defenses, but he gives them attitude and swagger. After teams criticized the Lakers for being too soft a couple years ago, the Lakers answered by signing Ron Artest one offseason and Barnes the next. Oh, the moxie!

Finally, Ratliff is a quiet upgrade over fan-favorite D.J. Mbenga at the backup center spot. Although Ratliff concerns me a bit with his injury tendencies, he is a veteran who has size and can enter a game and make immediate contributions with his shot-blocking ability. If you didn't follow basketball in the late 90s and early 2000s, you probably don't know that Ratliff was once a defensive force on a championship-level Philadelphia 76ers team (led by the newest star of Turkey's professional basketball league, Allen Iverson). In his prime, Ratliff averaged anywhere from 3 to 4 blocks per game. Last season, playing just 22.3 minutes per game in Charlotte, Ratliff managed to block 1.5 shots per game. The guy still has enough left in the tank to be soak up minutes for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

While the three players above each possess nice skills that fit perfectly into the Lakers team, it is an intangible quality that they all share that has me the most excited about their arrivals. Blake is 30 years old and is going on his eighth season in the league; Barnes is also 30 years old and begins his eighth year in the league; and Ratliff is 37 years old and enters his sixteenth go-around in the NBA. A couple of them--Barnes and Ratliff--have sniffed a championship. But none of them have actually captured one. The key to any repeat, or in this case three-peat, effort is to remain hungry and avoid the disease of more ("I want more touches! I want more money! I want more playing time!"). Kobe Bryant will always remain hungry, but we all know he can't do it himself. By adding these three veterans, the Lakers have thrown in three guys who will be motivated to win their first championships because they realize that this may be their best, and last, chance to do it. On nights when the team needs that extra push, count on Blake, Barnes, and Ratliff to remember why they joined the Lakers and give their new teammates that much-needed spark.

Key Losses:  Jordan Farmar

Farmar's departure is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, the Lakers initiated his departure by deciding not to offer Farmar a qualifying offer, thus letting him become an unrestricted free agent. The Nets then swooped in, offered Farmar decent money (3 years, $12 million), and just like that Farmar was on a plane headed to Jersey. Clearly, then, the Lakers thought that either they were overpaying Farmar for what he gave back on the court or that Farmar was no longer a good fit for the team. Either way, it was the Lakers' decision, not Farmar's.

The second component of this is that Farmar went from playing backup point guard on a potentially historical team to playing backup point guard on arguably the worst team in the NBA. The Nets won 12 games last season. Twelve. By comparison, the Lakers won 12 games in the month of November alone. Yeah, the Nets stunk it up. And while they should be better this season because, let's face it, it's nearly impossible to be worse, I don't think Farmar knows what he's getting himself into. He says he is eager because this will give him an opportunity to play more minutes, but is that even necessarily the case? Nets starting point guard Devin Harris is an exciting talent who, amid injuries, played 34.7 minutes per game last season. Meanwhile, Lakers starting point guard is the aging veteran Derek Fisher, who is pretty much on his way out and only averaged 27.2 minutes last season. If you ask me, I think Farmar would have gotten more minutes in LA than he will in New Jersey.

Most Important Player:
  Andrew Bynum

Obviously, Kobe is the main man in Los Angeles. But if the Lakers hope to three-peat this season, they will need a healthy and contributing Bynum in the middle. As talented as the Lakers are top to bottom, their biggest strength is their size and ability to dominate in the paint. If Bynum, Gasol, and Lamar Odom are each healthy, the Lakers have the most formidable front line in the league, and it's not even close. Not only does their size give them a decisive edge on the boards, but their diverse skill sets give them such unique flexibility on both sides of the court. Bynum has so much potential; we have seen flashes of it. Before going down last season, he averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game in the month of November. But the key will be whether those fragile knees are able to recover from offseason surgery and hold up over the course of another grinding NBA marathon.

Rookie Spotlight:  Devin Ebanks

Ebanks is a 6'9" athletic forward from West Virginia who gives the Lakers some nice length and versatility off the bench. He will likely only play in blowouts, but expect him to wow the LA crowds with his exciting game.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

The Lakers have all of the right pieces needed to hoist the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy for a third straight season. They have a proven leader and veteran at point guard in Fisher, the league's best player in Kobe, a tough, hard-nosed guy in Artest, a nightly mismatch for opposing power forwards in Odom, and the league's most skilled big man in Gasol. Then they have the league's best bench that got even stronger with the additions of Barnes, Blake, and Ratliff. The only wild card is Bynum's health. If he can pull it together, at the very least for the playoff run, there will be yet another parade down Figueroa Street next June.

Los Angeles Clippers

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  29-53
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:
  Ryan Gomes

Not very many additions for the Clippers this offseason. While some people thought that the Clippers would surprise everyone and win the LeBron James sweepstakes, they instead flew under the radar and made an unnoticed ripple by signing Ryan Gomes. Most fans have no clue who this guy is mainly because he has spent the past five seasons on terrible Minnesota teams. But Gomes can play if he gets opportunities. By all indications, the Clippers will split the time at small forward between Gomes and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu, a talented young player from Wake Forest. Expect both guys to be solid complementary players to the scorers like Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, and Blake Griffin.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Blake Griffin

Technically a rookie this season because he did not appear in a single regular season game last season, Griffin enters this year fully healthy and determined to live up to the hype. While the Clippers have guys who may end up scoring more points per game, nobody is as important to this franchise now and in the future as Griffin. Basically, all hope for this pathetic, cursed franchise lies on Griffin's boulder shoulders.

What many people have quickly forgotten is that Griffin is an absolute beast on the court. Although his college accolades no longer mean anything, his play in the preseason do. If you have not seen any of the highlights, click here, here, and here, and enjoy. I personally am cheering for Griffin because I would love to see another star burst on the scene, especially in my backyard. The league can never have too many stars, and if Griffin turns the Clippers organization around, he would certainly become larger than life.

Rookie Spotlight:  Blake Griffin

See above.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

Although I think the Clippers will jump the Suns and finish 2nd in the Pacific Division, I don't think they can win enough games to qualify for the playoffs in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. I bet the Clippers win 40-42 games, become an extremely entertaining team, and play the top dogs tough all season long.

Phoenix Suns

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  54-28
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Lost in Third Round

Key Additions: 
Hedo Turkoglu, Josh Childress

The Turkoglu and Childress acquisitions intrigue me. After performing at an All-Star level during the 2008-2009 NBA playoffs, Turkoglu signed a huge contract with Toronto and had his sights set on teaming with Chris Bosh to lead the Raptors to a rare playoff berth. His time in Toronto completely bombed as Turkoglu struggled en route to just 11.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. The Raptors saw enough and shipped him to Phoenix. The Suns hope that Turkoglu can regain his old form in their open offensive system, and although my heart says he is done, my head says perhaps this is the perfect system for him.

Childress was a pretty big disappointment in Atlanta after the Hawks picked him with their sixth overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. Childress has nice size and above-average athletic ability, so there is no reason why he can't succeed playing alongside Steve Nash--who doesn't?

Key Losses:  Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa, Louis Amundson

With the losses of Stoudemire and Barbosa, the Suns find themselves without two guys who made the Suns so fun to watch in recent years. While you can knock Amare all you want for his lack of defensive effort, you cannot argue that his role in Phoenix's offense was one-of-a-kind amongst power forwards across the league. He was so gifted for his size and the perfect piece for that offense. With his departure, the Suns no longer present that mismatch each night. I think it will be a huge loss for them.

Barbosa was a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate and an incredible player off the bench for Phoenix. With his unique speed, Barbosa ensured that the Suns did not miss a beat whenever Nash needed a breather. Again, this is a luxury that Phoenix will undoubtedly miss.

Most Important Player: 
Steve Nash

The two-time MVP will be crucial to the team's success considering the loss of talent this offseason and the uncertainty in terms of team chemistry. Nash has an amazing ability to make everyone around him better, and he will need to use this great skill to lift his teammates to new levels on a nightly basis.

Rookie Spotlight:  None

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  3rd

There is simply no way that the Suns can lose Amare, Barbosa, and Amundson and pick up right where they left off last season. The West is just too competitive and unforgiving. Perhaps the most telling sign of the team's inevitable struggles this season occurred in a recent AOL FanHouse interview in which Nash said, "To be honest, if I was outside this picture and a betting man, I would probably pick us to be outside of the playoffs."

Golden State Warriors

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  26-56
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  David Lee, Louis Amundson, Vladimir Radmanovic

Three great pickups for the Warriors. Lee is an underrated big man who can run the floor and flourish in fast-paced up-and-down offense. Amundson is a high-energy, selfless role player who will clean up the scraps left behind by the speed demons on the wings. And Radmanovic is a sharpshooter who can run the floor and provide an outlet behind the arc for Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis penetrating the paint. I think each of these guys will integrate seamlessly into the high-octane offense up in the Bay Area.

Key Losses:  Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf

While Randolph has tons of potential, he never got enough minutes in Golden State to make his departure painful. As for Turiaf, his services will successfully replaced by Amundson.

Most Important Player:  Stephen Curry

One of my favorite players in the league, Curry is best described as "silky smooth." If you think that all he can do is drain threes, you are severely mistaken. Yes, he does possess a sweet stroke from deep (43.7% on three-pointers last season), but he does so much more. He shot an impressive 46.2% from the field last season and averaged 17.5 points per game. He added 5.9 assists and 1.9 steals per game, as well. Finally, he shot a rock-solid 88.5% from the charity stripe, making him an ideal point guard to close out games. But beyond the numbers, Curry showed a surprising ability to shoulder the majority of the team's ball-handling duties and also demonstrated nice court vision and passing ability. His versatility makes him an ideal field general for the Warriors' offense.

Rookie Spotlight:  Jeremy Lin

Lin is an Asian-American baller from Harvard University. Nuff said. But if you are still curious, check out a piece I wrote earlier this year about Lin.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  4th

I like the Warriors' roster and I like their brand of basketball. Unfortunately, they play in a tough division in an even tougher conference and do not have enough firepower to pose a legitimate playoff threat. Although they will certainly be fun to watch, do not expect more than 35 wins this season.

Sacramento Kings

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  25-57
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert is a solid player who will add a nice defensive presence to the Kings. He rebounds well and has above-average shot-blocking ability.

Key Losses:  Spencer Hawes

Hawes never became the franchise center that the Kings intended him to be. His loss is not necessarily felt on the court, but in lost hope and payroll.

Most Important Player:  Tyreke Evans

With a starting lineup of Beno Udrih, Evans, Donte Greene, Carl Landry, and Samuel Dalembert (or DeMarcus Cousins), is anyone actually scared of the Sacramento Kings? Is Evans the only one who can dribble and shoot the basketball? This might be the least intimidating lineup in NBA history. I would double-team Evans on and off the ball and play a triangle-zone with the other three defenders on the court.

Rookie Spotlight:  DeMarcus Cousins

The big man from Kentucky has well-documented character issues, but his size and skill are eye-popping enough to at least warrant giving him an opportunity. If Cousins can develop into a solid low-post contributor this season, the Kings will at least be competitive in the paint with Landry, Cousins, and Dalembert. Furthermore, if Cousins shows nice development this season, the Kings will have plenty to look forward to in the future.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  5th

Irrelevant.

Sunday, October 24

How the San Francisco Giants Can Win the World Series

Bringing the House illustration
With the start of the World Series just days away, Bringing the House will dissect the keys to each team winning the title. First up:  the San Francisco Giants.

1. Limit Josh Hamilton

Hamilton, my pick for the American League MVP, had a quiet division series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. He finished that round 2-for-18 (.111 average) and only drove in one run. Just when everyone began to wonder whether Hamilton's late-season rib injury was simply too much to overcome, the star outfielder silenced all critics by delivering an MVP-worthy series against the Yankees. In Game 1, Hamilton started the game with a 3-run shot off of Yankees ace CC Sabathia to jump start the Rangers and send Arlington into a frenzy. In Game 3, Hamilton again ignited the offense by sending an Andy Pettitte offering into the bleachers for another first-inning home run. The next night, in pivotal Game 4, Hamilton hit two home runs to lead the Rangers to a 10-3 blowout. Hamilton seemed to have found his groove as he finished the American League Championship Series 7-for-20 (.350) with 4 home runs and 7 runs batted in. And just for fun, he also stole three bases.

I doubt the Giants followed the Rangers much throughout the regular season; the two teams are obviously in different leagues and San Francisco was occupied by an intense NL West race with the Padres and Rockies all season long. But as the number of remaining teams in the playoffs dwindled down, I would be surprised if the Giants had not caught the Rangers and their dismantling of the Yankees. And if they did in fact catch any of those games, they would have concluded, among other things, that Josh Hamilton is the single most important factor in the Rangers' success. How, then, do the Giants stop him?

Besides praying that Hamilton falls into a slump like he did against Tampa, there are two main ways to at least contain him. First, you could pitch around him or intentionally walk him like the Yankees did in the ALCS. The Yankees walked Hamilton a total of eight (8) times in the series. In Game 2, Hamilton went 0-1 with 4 walks, but the Rangers won in decisive fashion. Then in Game 6, Hamilton walked another 3 times, yet the Rangers still won and closed out the series. The Yankees took the bat out of Hamilton's hands, yet they still got pounded. Did the strategy backfire? No, not exactly.

The key to pitching around a player is to get the next guy out. Every great hitter in this league has another strong hitter behind him to "protect" him. That player's job is to punish the opposing team for walking the star batter. For most of the season and the entire playoffs, Vladimir Guerrero had the duty of protecting Hamilton. Let's take a look at how successful the Yankees were in getting Guerrero out after they had walked Hamilton.

Game 1 (bottom of the 3rd):  Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 1st):  Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 2nd):  Guerrero grounded out
Game 2 (bottom of the 4th):  Guerrero lined into double play
Game 2 (bottom of the 8th):  Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 6 (bottom of the 3rd):  Guerrero popped out
Game 6 (bottom of the 5th):  Guerrero hit 2-run double
Game 6 (bottom of the 7th):  Guerrero grounded out

Minus one hanging curveball from Phil Hughes in Game 6, the Yankees were able to retire Guerrero after they had walked Hamilton. The strategy, for the most part, worked very well. The damage in Games 2 and 6 were done long before Hamilton even stepped up to the plate. While the Giants have better starting pitching top to bottom than the Yankees do, there will be times during games (i.e. first base is open with two outs) when you would rather pitch to Guerrero than Hamilton. And if they do decide to give a pass to Hamilton, they need to make sure to get Vlad out.

In the event that the Giants pitchers want to go after Hamilton, they need to focus on getting ahead in the count with early strikes. You obviously want to get ahead of every batter you face, but Hamilton more so than others. For him, one strike makes a world of difference. Check out the following splits that detail Hamilton's batting average based on various ball and strike counts:

Count 0-0:  .398
Count 0-1:  .383
Count 0-2:  .128
Count 1-0:  .404
Count 1-1:  .392
Count 1-2:  .247
Count 2-0:  .500
Count 2-1:  .528
Count 2-2:  .358
Count 3-0:  .500
Count 3-1:  .636
Count 3-2:  .302

As you can see, his godly numbers comes back down to Earth once you get two strikes on him (with the exception of 2-2 counts). So the key will be to get ahead in the count and then work outside of the zone with nasty breaking pitches, which happens to be Tim Lincecum's general approach. As a general rule of thumb, just treat him like everyone treated Barry Bonds (at-bat) in his prime; San Francisco should know all about that.

2. Patrol the Bases

The Rangers and Giants are polar opposites when it comes to speed. Texas finished 7th in all of baseball 123 stolen bases on the season, whereas San Francisco finished dead last with only 55 swipes. The Giants have not seen the type of speed Texas possess mainly because the AL is simply a faster league than the NL. The American League teams that have the speed make it a point to use it, and when they do, it can dramatically affect a game.

In Game 2 of the ALCS, Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus used his speed to wreak havoc against the Yankees in the first inning. First, Andrus reached on an infield single after beating out a dribble to Derek Jeter. Starting pitcher Phil Hughes then threw a wild pitch, which Andrus took advantage of by moving to second. After Michael Young struck out, Andrus stole third against the feeble-armed Jorge Posada. Two batters later, Andrus and Josh Hamilton orchestrated a beautiful double-steal and Andrus came across the plate for the game's first score. So in one inning, the Rangers manufactured a huge run without ever hitting the ball out of the infield; sounds like a luxury that may come in handy against the tough pitching of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner.

To defend the Rangers' speed, the Giants will really need to buckle down. It starts with making sure that the Rangers' top speed guys don't get on base. Andrus is far and away their fastest player, but Nelson Cruz, Julio Borbon, Ian Kinsler, and David Murphy all recorded double-digit stolen base totals this season. When those runners do get on base, San Francisco pitchers need to mix up how long they hold the ball before going to the plate and make sure they execute effective slide-steps. As good as all that sounds on paper, however, it may be irrelevant. The Giants had trouble with opposing base runners all season en route to allowing a 9th-most 115 steals. In the NLCS, the Giants gave up seven (7) steals to the Phillies while only throwing them out once. The Rangers have a clear advantage in this aspect of the game.

3. Win One Game Against Cliff Lee

No team has ever defeated Lee in the playoffs. Last year, Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings in the playoffs. This postseason? More of the same. Check out what Lee has done in three starts thus far:

ALDS, Game 1 vs. TB:  7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (Win)
ALDS, Game 5 vs. TB:  9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (Win)
ALCS, Game 3 vs. NY:  8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K (Win)

Stop it, Cliff. That's just not fair. In fact, not only is it unfair, but it's unheard of:  Lee became the first pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out 10 or more batters three times in a single postseason. Current Rangers owner Nolan Ryan (ever heard of him?) even said, "[Lee is] the most consistent pitcher I've ever seen." Quite the compliment considering the source.

We can ogle over Lee's stats for days, but my point is this:   If the Giants want to win their first World Series since moving to San Francisco in 1958, they will need to defeat the Rangers in at least one game in which Lee starts. They don't have to knock Lee around with a handful of home runs or double-digit hits. Heck, they don't even have to get a single run off of him. But they have to win that game somehow, whether on a blown call or via late-inning heroics at the expense of Texas' bullpen. They just can't afford to chalk up two games as losses in this series simply because Lee is listed as the probable starter that night. And while opposing Lee with Lincecum boosts your chances, the burden ultimately rests on the offense.

4a. Can Cody Ross Continue His Magic?

Unless you are a Florida Marlins fan or followed fantasy baseball closely, you probably had never heard of Cody Ross before this postseason (and I suppose unless you are a Giants fan, Phillies supporter, or sports blogger, you still haven't). But Ross burst onto the stage in dramatic fashion over the past three weeks by providing a bulk of San Francisco's offense and some timely hits. In 34 at-bats, Ross has 11 hits (a .324 average), including 4 doubles and 4 home runs, with 8 RBIs. The Giants batters have recorded 27 RBIs this postseason, which means that Ross has nearly one-third of those. Sometimes the big stage brings out the best in players; sometimes people get hot at the right time. I think this is a combination of the two. But will he carry the momentum into the World Series where the pressure is exponentially greater? If the Giants are to win, he has no choice.

4b. Which Batter Will Step Up?

In the event that Ross' bat cools off, who will pick up the slack? This is his first postseason appearance and he is absolutely obliterating his career averages in the major statistical categories. He is nearly 60 points above his career batting average, over 70 points above his career on-base percentage, and over 300 points above his career slugging percentage. He is not just hot, he is on steroids fire. But all good things come to an end, and if this ride happens to end before the start of, or during, the World Series, to whom will the Giants look?

The ugly truth is that the Giants are not built for high-scoring affairs. The Giants have only one player who hit over .300 during the regular season (Buster Posey, .305). The Rangers, on the other hand, had three players, including the league's batting champion. The Rangers scored nearly 100 more runs in the regular season than the Giants did. And so far this postseason, the Rangers have six players who are slugging above .400 (including Cruz at .875), whereas the Giants only have three. Although the Giants do not want to engage in any slugfests with the Rangers, eventually they will have to outscore the Rangers to win the series. Someone besides Ross will need to play big.

5. Unleash The Beard


The Brian Wilson Bandwagon is more packed than ever. The charismatic closer has not only gained a huge following because of his infectious personality, but also because of his lights-out pitching. In 9.0 innings this postseason, The Beard has allowed only 4 hits without surrendering a run, and he struck out 12 in the process. Although he sometimes makes ninth innings exciting excruciating, he gets the job done at the end of day--just ask the Phillies. The 3-2 curveball that he threw to freeze Ryan Howard was the biggest pitch of Wilson's life to date, and it was downright nasty.

Wilson will be very important for the Giants because the Rangers have feasted on late-inning pitching so far this postseason. Specifically, the Rangers have piled on runs in the ninth inning of games, killing any chance of an opponent's comeback and taking all air out of opposing stadiums. In the ALCS versus the Yankees, the Rangers scored nine (9) ninth-inning runs. And while none of those runs were scored off Mariano Rivera (i.e. the closer), you won't win if you can't stop a team late in the game. The Beard has great stuff and he will need to bring it if he wants to shut down a potent Rangers offense.

Saturday, October 23

NBA Preview: Southwest Division


San Antonio Spurs

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  50-32
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Lost in Second Round

Key Additions:  None

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Tony Parker

Multiple injuries bothered Parker last season and forced him to miss 26 games. When he was able to play, he looked rusty and could not stay in games for long periods at a time (averaged only 30.9 minutes per game). While Tim Duncan is widely considered the franchise's best player, Parker will be their most critical should they hope to make a playoff run in a deep Western Conference. Behind Duncan, Parker is the team's most prominent leader and someone who can create his own shot. Don't forget, just two years ago Parker averaged 22 points and 6.9 assists per game while shooting over 50% from the field. Throughout his career, Parker has been such a unique point guard because of his ability to score in the paint; his career shooting percentage is 49%, which is very high for a point guard. If Parker can regain his All-Star form, the Spurs will be in contention once again.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Tiago Splitter

Besides having maybe the coolest name in the league, the 6'11" power forward/center from Brazil is very talented and has potential to be a great player in a few seasons. Because the Spurs are rather shallow in the front court, you should expect to see Splitter get some decent minutes all season behind starting center Antonio McDyess. Not only will Splitter develop nicely by having the opportunity to play, but being under the tutelage of future Hall of Famer Duncan and another veteran McDyess is invaluable.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

I predict that the Spurs will leapfrog the Mavericks in the Southwest Division because their starting lineup is fully healthy and motivated to get back on top. While I don't think they have enough to compete with the Lakers and Thunders of the world, they have enough to make the playoffs and get out of the first round. The Spurs' "Big 3" is still great and they have a solid scorer in Richard Jefferson and some great players off the bench (George Hill, DeJuan Blair). Finally, coach Gregg Popovich is still one of the best in the game and will find a way to make the talent work. That being said, the starting lineup is pretty old (average age:  32) and the window of opportunity for these guys is barely cracked open, if not closed.

Dallas Mavericks

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  55-27
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  Tyson Chandler

Assuming Chandler can stay healthy, he could give nice support off the bench to the Mavs. But even if he's 100%, his best days are behind him. Not a huge addition to the team.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Dirk Nowitzki

The Mavs are basically the same team that they were last season, which wasn't enough to make it out of the first round. I was tempted to say that any one of Jason Kidd, Caron Butler, or Shawn Marion was the most important player, but that would be too much of a stretch. While Kidd is still a great fantasy basketball option because of his stat-stuffing potential, the Mavs don't revolve around the veteran point guard like the Suns revolve around Steve Nash or the Jazz revolve around Deron Williams. Butler is good on the wing, but injuries have caught up to him and the argument can be made that the Mavs are better with Jason Terry on the court instead. And as for Marion, the once-dynamic jack-of-all-trades is now past his prime. Nowitzki, on the other hand, is clearly the face of this franchise and still going strong. He can put this team on his back like he has so many times before and lift them to the playoffs. But I think that's the ceiling for this team unless they can find a dependable second option, and preferably someone with youth.

Rookie Spotlight:  None

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

Like I said above, the Mavs will probably have the same result that they did last season:  a first-round playoff exit. The only hope for them is that this squad somehow gels together better than they did last season simply because they have had more time to play together and adjust to different idiosyncrasies. If these guys were in their prime, this could be a championship team…but they aren't in their prime.

Memphis Grizzlies

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  40-42
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  None

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Zach Randolph

Randolph has always had tons of talent. However, his mind is not always focused. During some seasons he found himself in legal trouble and others he found himself unmotivated and undisciplined. But last season he managed to put everything together and deliver unbelievable performances almost every night. Randolph averaged 20.8 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, numbers which deserve league-wide attention but don't receive it just because he plays in Memphis. The Grizzlies have plenty of young talent and all the right pieces to become a great team, but none are as important as Randolph because of his ability to dominate a game offensively down-low. Nobody else on their roster can do that. If he puts together another monster season--and I think that he will because he is in a contract year--then the Grizzlies will be an above-average and dangerous team.

Rookie Spotlight: 
Greivis Vasquez

With apologies to first-round pick Xaiver Henry, Vasquez earns the Rookie Spotlight honors. During his college career at Maryland, Vasquez showed tremendous leadership abilities. He is a point guard with great size and a nice feel to his game. Vasquez also earned this distinction because I think he will play more than Henry will this season simply by being higher on the depth chart at his respective position; Vasquez currently sits third behind Mike Conley and Acie Law, and while Conley has the starting job locked up (and rightfully so), Law has not done much in his three-year NBA career and Vasquez could easily supplant him.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  3rd

I really like the Grizzlies squad. They have a young, exciting bunch that could give lots of teams trouble, but I think they are a couple of years away from actually contending for a championship. Conley is a nice point guard who has shown flashes of the solid play that everyone expects from him, but he has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. With Acie Law, the aforementioned Greivis Vasquez, and even Xavier Henry breathing down Conley's neck, perhaps it will motivate the starter to play with a chip on his shoulder for the entire year. On the wings, the Grizzlies are as potent as anyone in the league with O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. Both of these guys are athletic, skilled, and create their own shot. And both of them are go-to guys who want the ball down the stretch. Gay has proven to be the number-one scoring option, and I think Mayo is okay with that mainly because he knows he can't be the leader night in and night out. I already touched on the importance of Z-Bo, but he will need help in the paint from youngsters Marc Gasol and Hasheem Thabeet. Gasol made great strides last season nearly averaging a double-double (14.6 ppg and 9.3 rpg) before bowing out with a neck injury. Meanwhile, former #2 overall pick Thabeet was a huge disappointment in his rookie season, at one point being demoted to the NBA Development League. If Thabeet can improve some more then the Grizz would have a nice 1-2 punch at center. Look for the Grizzlies to play very well this season, improve on last season, and possibly upset a top team in the playoffs.

Houston Rockets

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  42-40
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions: 
Brad Miller

Although Miller is past his prime, he still can make decent contributions if in the right system. He is not going to dominate in the low post, but he can run a pick-and-pop and can play high-low with another big man. The Rockets picked up Miller as an insurance policy for the injury-prone Yao Ming. Regardless of whether Yao stays healthy or not, Miller will get plenty of minutes.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Yao Ming

The fall of Yao is actually a bit sad for any basketball fan. When healthy, Yao is the most skilled center in the game and can dominate anyone, Dwight Howard included. But nowadays Yao is rarely healthy. On paper, the Rockets have a good looking roster. They have exciting, streaky guards (Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin), tough, defensive-minded players (Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes), and versatile forwards who can hit shots from the outside (Luis Scola, Chase Budinger). But if you take Yao away from that group of guys, it suddenly looks like a team guaranteed to find the cellar.

Rookie Spotlight:  Patrick Patterson

The first-round pick out of Kentucky gives the Rockets a young low-post player to develop. Patterson is different from the other big guys on this squad because he has such a strong offensive game. The forwards in front of Patterson on the depth chart--Scola, Hayes, and Jared Jeffries--are not guys who demand the ball. Patterson wants the ball and you can count on him to deliver. I don't think Patterson will get very many minutes this season, but in a few years expect him to be a starter in Houston or somewhere else.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  4th

While the Rockets won't make the playoffs or even finish with an above-.500 record, they will still be an exciting team that could pull off some big wins during the regular season. They have tough, gritty players who simply do not give up. With or without Yao, expect Brooks, Martin, Scola, and Battier to deliver 100% every night; those four guys all have the character and attitude that any contender would want on their roster.

New Orleans Hornets

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  37-45
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Trevor Ariza

The former Lakers swingman moves to New Orleans after one season in Houston. While Ariza had a stellar year with the Rockets (14.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.8 sag), I don't think he was fit for that team. Houston wanted him to be the number-one scoring option, and I think Ariza is better suited as a complementary player like he was in Los Angeles. Ariza goes to New Orleans to provide some support for Chris Paul and David West on the perimeter, and I think he will do great there. Paul's penetration and playmaking ability will allow Ariza to spot up for threes, which we all know he can hit. Furthermore, Ariza gives the Hornets a nice defensive player who can fill the passing lanes and make some nice momentum-changing plays (1.75 steals per game last season).

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Chris Paul

Say what you want about David West, Ariza, and Emeka Okafor, but CP3 has the keys to this car. Besides Nash in Phoenix and Williams in Utah, no point guard has as much influence over his offense as CP3. Paul only played about half of last season before being derailed by a knee injury, so a full season from Paul should help the Hornets at least be more competitive.

Rookie Spotlight: 
Quincy Pondexter

The forward from Washington is a solid scorer with good length and playmaking ability. I think the Hornets should eventually start Pondexter and move Ariza to the two-guard. This would give the Hornets some length and athleticism in its starting lineup. Meanwhile, Pondexter has the ability to create his own shot, which is something that the Hornets lack outside of CP3.

2010-2011 Division Outlook: 
5th

It's hard to believe that just three seasons ago the Hornets were one of the best teams in the West with a 56-26 record. The team looks far different now than it did then; CP3 is just as good if not better, but West has since regressed, Chandler has departed, and Peja Stojakovic's age has caught up to him. The Hornets are particularly poor on the wings where neither Ariza nor starting shooting guard Marco Belinelli can create a shot off the dribble. I predict that CP3 will be very overwhelmed this season by being burdened with too much of the scoring load, which will result in disappointing team performances throughout the season.

Thursday, October 21

NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  50-32
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  Morris Peterson

It is hard to believe that this will be Mo-Pete's 11th season in the league. I still remember seeing him win a championship on that Mateen Cleaves-led Michigan State squad. The days of Mo-Pete being an impact player are pretty much over, but the guy can still give you decent minutes off the bench. Peterson is actually listed as second on the depth chart at small forward behind Kevin Durant, which means one thing:  he probably won't get much playing time because Durant probably will play most of every game.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Russell Westbrook

With apologies to my 2010-2011 MVP-to-be Kevin Durant, Westbrook will be critical to the Thunder if they hope to duplicate, or even better, last season's amazing success. Durant is going to get his; he has officially become one of the top four overall players in the league, and maybe the most dangerous player on the offensive side of the ball. But the key will be Durant's supporting cast because, as we have seen in the past, all superstars need at least one other All-Star in order to make a legitimate playoff push. If you haven't seen Westbrook play, and if you think he is just an athlete that can't shoot or handle the ball, then you are very misguided. Yes, Westbrook is a ridiculously explosive athlete (just ask Lamar Odom) and on most nights is probably the best athlete on the court. But Westbrook, since he converted to full-time point guard, has become a monster in every facet of the game. Last season, he averaged 16.1 points per game to go along with 8.0 assists per game--did you ever think he would post those numbers? I certainly didn't. Westbrook also has the hops to be a good rebounder (4.8 per game last year) and the defensive abilities to play solid one-on-one defense and jump passing lanes to steal passes (1.30 steals per game last year). The only knocks on Westbrook are his lack of three point shooting (a fantasy basketball downfall, really) and his low shooting percentage (41.8% last season up from 39.8% the previous year). Regardless, Westbrook looks like he has only scratched the surface of his potential, and if he is able to improve upon last season's effort (and I think that he will), then OKC will be in great shape.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Cole Aldrich

The one thing that everyone knew OKC lacked last season was size. In their playoff series loss to the Lakers last season, OKC threw Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka, and Nenad Krstic at Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Yeah, that definitely is not going to cut it. This season, not only will the Thunder have a more experienced Byron Mullens, a 7-footer out of Ohio State, but they will also have the services of recent Kansas star center Cole Aldrich. The big man won't start this year, but should be able to provide solid low-post defense, rebounding, and shot blocking off the bench while their current starters get some rest. And, if nothing else, Aldrich gives OKC a big body to bang around down low with the Bynum's and Duncan's of the Western Conference; that luxury will pay dividends over the course of a long season and during an intense playoff series.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

The Thunder have such a great core (KD-Westbrook-Jeff Green) led by an absolute beast of a superstar. They have some great young players that give them nice options off the bench, like James Harden, Eric Maynor, D.J. White, and Ibaka. And I think they will only get better after last season; they have another year of playing together and more confidence. And did I mention they have Kevin Durant? People just don't realize how unstoppable KD really is. He's the best offensive player in the NBA. And as scary as it may be, he has not even reached his full potential. In case you missed him last season, KD became the youngest player ever to win the NBA scoring title; he averaged 30.1 points per game and shot 47.6% from the field, 90% from the free throw line (automatic for a 6'9" forward and go-to scorer), and 36.5% from beyond the arc. Oh yeah, and he also gave OKC 7.6 rebounds per game, 1.37 steals per game, and 1 block per game. What are the chances that this guy puts up 35 points and 10 boards per night this season? I actually think they're pretty darn good.

Denver Nuggets

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  53-29
Division Finish:  1st (via tiebreak)
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  Al Harrington

Harrington was an interesting pickup for the Nuggets. He gives the team an upgrade on the offensive end over Kenyon Martin, but a downgrade defensively. And I don't think that's what the Nuggets need; they were third in the NBA last season in scoring at 106.5 points per game, but 20th overall in points allowed at 102.4 points per game. They were 20th in rebounding with 41.4 boards per game. Those last two figures are not ones fit for championship teams. So why, then, would they go out and find more scoring in exchange for defense? It doesn't make much sense to me. K-Mart not only gave them 9.4 rebounds per game, but he also added 1.1 blocks per game and 1.24 steals per game. Although his offensive abilities are limited, I think he fit nicely in their starting lineup because of his swagger and defensive intensity. That being said, it remains to be seen whether Harrington will keep the starting job for the whole season.

Key Losses: 
Linas Kleiza

Kleiza was a nice piece off the bench for the Nuggets for the past two seasons once he developed some confidence with the basketball. But ultimately, there was just no room for Kleiza in the Nuggest front court. He is a pretty one-dimensional player in my view, and it is tough to get away with such a limited game in today's ultra-athletic league.

Most Important Player:  Carmelo Anthony

Besides being the team's top scoring option and one of the top ten players in the league, Melo will be key this season mainly for an off-court reason; that is, will Melo leave Denver, and if so, when? The rumors swirled viciously during the whole summer, and they have continued to manifest themselves as the season nears its opening tip. There are so many different ways this could affect the Nuggets. If rumors follow Melo the whole season, how much will that be a distraction for him and his teammates? If he is actually dealt, will that signal the end of this team's run in the West? Does that mean Denver is officially in rebuilding mode? What does that mean for veterans like Chauncey Billups and Kenyon Martin? It will be an interesting season for the Nuggets and their star forward.

Rookie Spotlight:  None

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

Just to continue what I touched on above, this is an important year in this franchise's history. Melo has the power to single-handedly alter the future of the Nuggets with his decision. Let's imagine Melo signs a contract extension early in the season, thus ending the trade rumors and securing Denver with his services for the next six or so years. In the short term, that ensures that the Nuggets will be the same threat they have been in the past four or so seasons; they will make the playoffs and pose a dangerous matchup depending on which team they face. But they don't have enough to win a championship, at least not this season. So then, what about next year, or in three seasons? Well, Billups will likely hang it up around then, Harrington and Martin will probably be well into their declines, so Denver would be left with a starting five of Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Melo, Shelden Williams, and Nene Hilario. I actually like that lineup quite a bit so long as Williams fulfills expectations and they can get someone else who can score the ball. But for this year, it will either be the same result as last season or a complete overhaul and beginning of rebuilding mode.

Utah Jazz

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  53-29
Division Finish:  2nd (via tiebreak)
Playoffs:  Lost in Second Round

Key Additions:  Al Jefferson, Raja Bell

I actually like the Jazz more this year than I have in previous seasons, and Jefferson and Bell are two of the main reasons. First, the Jazz basically swapped Boozer for Jefferson this past summer, and I think the move will work out in the long run. Deron Williams and Boozer had such great chemistry that the Jazz and their fans will undoubtedly miss that connection throughout the season, especially if the team struggles. But Big Al is a better offensive player than Boozer, and arguably an equal defensive player (not as strong of a rebounder, but a better shot blocker). But Jefferson is three years younger (only 25) and he gives the Jazz some renewed hope and energy. Boozer was never really adopted by the Jazz fans, and maybe all this franchise needed was a new face with similar ability.

Bell gives the Jazz defense and toughness/attitude. Bell flirted with the idea of going to the Lakers this past offseason, but ultimately took the money in Utah. It allows him to play for a contender and nab a starting job. My only concern with Bell is that he is not a good enough offensive player, and the Jazz may need some more offense judging by their starting lineup (Williams, Bell, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Jefferson). But Bell is a nice piece for any team.

Key Losses:
  Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver

Everyone has covered the Boozer loss, so I will just save your time. The Korver and Brewer losses are interesting because they are some decent offensive players that fit well around Williams and Boozer in previous seasons. Korver is a nice piece to any team because he stretches the defense. I am certain that his departure will be felt.

Most Important Player: 
Al Jefferson

Williams will need to develop a nice rapport with Jefferson if the Jazz hope to be competitive this season. Coach Jerry Sloan has always utilized his talent at point guard and power forward in pick-and-roll schemes and inside-out basketball. Jefferson certainly has the talent to excel in Sloan's system, so it will only be a matter of time. On a side note, I think the health of center Mehmet Okur is something worth watching. When healthy, Okur gives Utah solid rebounding, low-post defense, and outside shooting. But in order to make those contributions, his Achilles will need to heal and then hold up over the course of the season. If it does, Jefferson and Millsap will get some valuable and unexpected help this year.

Rookie Spotlight:  Gordon Hayward

Any college basketball fans in the house? If so, you should be familiar with Gordon Hayward. The 6'8" wiry forward from Butler University made a name for himself as the leader of an underdog team that made it all the way to the national championship game last March. Although he missed a desperation heave that would be cemented the team in college basketball history, Hayward has much more to look forward to in his career. I think Hayward can give the Jazz a mixture of what they lost between Brewer and Korver. Hayward plays very smart, hustles, has a nice stroke, and is a winner. Tough to argue with those qualities in a first-year bench player.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  3rd

I like the offseason moves that the Jazz made. Sometimes when you feel as though you have plateaued with a particular group of guys, the key may be to switch out a couple of them for players that give you similar traits with some tweaks. The Jazz got younger and better offensively by getting Jefferson for Boozer. They added some defense with Raja Bell, and they got a nice, versatile young forward in Hayward through the draft. Utah has always been a smart organization and those moves will help jump to at least 3rd in the division.

Portland Trailblazers

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  50-32
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions: 
None

Key Losses:  Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster

Neither Blake, Outlaw, nor Webster were important pieces to this Blazers club. Of the three, Outlaw was probably the best, but the Blazers are banking on youngsters Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews to fill in at small forward. I don't think there will be much of a drop off, so I think the Blazers will weather these losses very nicely. Webster was once a top draft pick that the organization had hoped would become a marquee player for them, but his career has not played out as expected, and the Blazers made the wise choice of cutting their relationship. In a few years, this may happen to Greg Oden, too; only time will tell.

Most Important Player:
  Brandon Roy

Although it seems like Roy has been around for a bit, it's only his fifth season in the league. He is one of the better scorers in the game and is definitely not afraid to have the ball with the game on the line. However, I don't think a team can win a title with Roy as its number one option. He is good, but he is no Wade, Kobe, or Durant. Their success this season will be directly tied to Roy's ability to stay healthy and perform as he is capable of performing while sharing the ball with other scorers like LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller, Jerryd Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez.

Rookie Spotlight:  None

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  4th

This is kind of a boring Portland team. Not much has changed from last season, yet the Blazers look solid enough to win another 45+ games. I think the team has plateaued with its current core, but perhaps Batum can step up and give them something new. Ultimately, I think it all goes back to Roy. I have detailed the formula for a championship team, and the Blazers are nowhere close to fulfilling the criteria.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  15-67
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:
  Michael Beasley, Martell Webster, Darko Milicic, Luke Ridnour

The starting five only has one holdover from last season, and that is Kevin Love. Other than that, they have new pieces everywhere, and perhaps the shiniest new piece is Michael Beasley. The former Kansas State star's career has gotten off to a rough start as a result of some off-court issues and middle-of-the-road seasons in Miami. Perhaps a change of scenery and smaller market will do the youngster some good.

Meanwhile, the Wolves are taking a chance on butt of jokes Dark Milicic and the disappointing Luke Ridnour. I don't see how these two will play well enough to remain around in, say, three seasons, but you never know.

Key Losses:  Al Jefferson

Jefferson is the second big-time big man to leave Minnesota after starring on their terrible teams for years (first:  Kevin Garnett). Seems like it's becoming a trend. Jefferson was the life of the team, I don't think they can get much worse than last year's 15-67.

Most Important Player:  Michael Beasley

If he lives up to the hype, Beasley could turn this transform this franchise from laughing stock of the NBA to legitimate threat in the West. But that's a lot of hope to put on one man's shoulders (especially a man who doesn't even have full control over his personal issues). But hey, nobody expects the playoffs this season or even next. All they want is some progress. And if Beasley can turn in a season where he averages 22 points and 10 boards, I'd consider it a success for the Wolves and their new star.

Rookie Spotlight:  Wesley Johnson

The former Syracuse star will be a nice addition to the Wolves. At 6'7", he will present a difficult matchup for lots of shooting guards in the league. Johnson should develop quickly and give the Wolves a viable second option behind Beasley.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  5th

Can they top their 15-win total from last season? Woof. I don't even know if I would go that far. I say they match it.

Tuesday, October 19

NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Miami Heat

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  47-35
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House

The Miami Heat basically have a completely new roster. Once Dwyane Wade, LeBron, and Bosh had announced that they were joining forces in South Beach, everyone immediately asked what players the Heat management would bring in to support the stars. People thought the team simply did not have enough cap space to run out a complete team. What some may not realize is that each of the three stars took a pay cut to make this all a reality. The pay cut allowed the Heat to retain some young talent, like point guard Mario Chalmers, as well as some solid, unselfish big men, like Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem. The Heat then took the leftover money and began courting players who could fill roles that you commonly see on championship teams:  the outside sharpshooters (Miller and House), veteran big men off the bench (Ilgauskas, Juwon Howard, and Jamaal Magloire), and young guys who can provide sparks of energy (Patrick Beverley and Da'Sean Butler).

I know critics will hate to admit it, but the Heat have a legitimate squad. They have three of the game's top twenty players, including two of the top four, and have other players--Chalmers, Miller, Haslem, and Ilgauskus--that would be starters on many other teams. On paper, this is one of the best teams in the league.

Key Losses:  Michael Beasley

While Beasley has a ton of promise, the off-court troubles and the opportunity to secure a guys who are already superstars led the Heat to give up the former Kansas State star. In essence, the Heat basically traded Beasley for LeBron or Beasley for Bosh, and I do not think you could find a GM who would turn those deals down.

Most Important Player:  Dwyane Wade/LeBron James

The dynamic duo will need to find a way to play together if this team is to have success this season and in future seasons. Miami is clearly Dwyane's world; he brought the city a championship and is the unquestioned face of the franchise. But LeBron has always been the big fish in a small pond, as well. So how will the two find a way to share the ball, the court, and the limelight? Eventually, someone has to defer and play Robin to the other's Batman. Specifically, who is going to take the last shot when the game is on the line? In my opinion, it has to be Wade. Over the course of his career, he has demonstrated on countless occasions the ability to hit the big shot. Furthermore, if there is any knock on LeBron, it is that he does not have that killer instinct or that finisher's mentality. Will LeBron face the truth in Miami and let Dwyane do the honors?

When it comes to the first three quarters of a game, I think coexistence will be easy. In fact, I think the two of them will be extremely fun to watch. In preseason games thus far, we have seen LeBron bring the ball up court as a point-forward. He has great court vision, amazing passing ability, and has always appeared to be an unselfish player. Giving LeBron the responsibility of distributing the ball may actually put him in a more comfortable role than he has ever been. But the success of this venture will depend almost exclusively on how the stars manage their egos.

Rookie Spotlight:  Da'Sean Butler

If you followed college basketball at all last season, then you know all about Da'Sean Butler. The forward from West Virginia made a reputation by hitting numerous, memorable buzzer-beating shots. It was truly amazing how Butler seemed to rise to the occasion and bury his opponents. The final moments of those close West Virginia games were almost comedic; every fan in the arena, every announcer covering the game, and every player on the court knew that Butler would get the ball. The defense would be designed to prevent Butler from getting the ball and prevent Butler from attempting a shot. Yet, time and time again, Butler would get the ball, create a shot, and nail it. Butler is a versatile player with great character and leadership ability. The Heat got a steal when Butler landed in their lap during the draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some minutes to spell LeBron and Wade this season, and certainly in the future.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

While some preseason injuries may temporarily thwart this Miami empire, I cannot imagine them finishing anywhere except atop this division. Talent wins out. Always. They have two of the four best players in the game today and the cast to provide valuable support.

In terms of winning a championship, I am not sure whether they win one this season or next or the year after that. But I can reasonably see it happening any season from here on out. Anyone that thinks otherwise is just in denial. The Lakers dynasty under Kobe will come to an end in a few years, if not sooner, simply because of age; the Celtics reign with their "Big 3" is pretty much over; the Spurs dominance with their "Big 3" is even more dead. This season is the start of a new era in the NBA.

Orlando Magic

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  59-23
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Lost in Third Round

Key Additions:  Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson

Evidently, the Magic felt as though the pieces that they in place last season are good enough to win this season. They brought back almost every on their two-deep depth chart and added Duhon to spell Jameer Nelson and "Q" to backup Mickael Pietrus. Richardson gives the Magic yet another three point shooter to whom Dwight Howard can kick out the ball. Duhon will share backup point guard duties with the flashy but inconsistent Jason Williams (aka White Chocolate).

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Jameer Nelson

Nelson is key to this team because everyone else in the starting five has either reached his potential or is on the way down. Nelson is the only one on the way up. He does not have the ability to take over any game with his scoring, but he can provide a steady 15-18 points per game if needed. More importantly, Nelson will need to remain healthy and manage a starting lineup filled with three guys who need touches:  Vince Carter, Howard, and Rashard Lewis. The Magic have been plagued by inconsistent point guard play for the past several seasons, and they need some stability at that position if they want to dethrone the Celtics and prevent the Heat from taking control in the East.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Stanley Robinson

Robinson is an extremely athletic, lengthy forward who can provide a spark off the bench through rebounding and blocking shots. While the Magic have Howard, they don't really have any other big men who play above the rim; Ryan Anderson is versatile but poses a big threat mainly beyond the arc; Marcin Gortat is a high-energy guy but makes his presence felt mainly on hustle plays; and new acquisition Brandon Bass is strong but lacks the athleticism to play with quicker forwards. Enter Stanley Robinson. He might not get many minutes, but expect him to have some nice highlights every once in awhile.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

While a lot of teams would be more than happy to finish second in their division and make a deep run in the playoffs, the Magic seem like they do this routine each year. In my opinion, I think this team has plateaued for two reasons. First, I think Dwight Howard is overrated. He is a great rebounder, a great shot-blocker, and definitely a freak athlete. But I don't think he is a dominant offense big man who can lead a team to a title. When you combine his limitations with an over-the-hill Vinsanity (points per game and free throw attempts have declined for three straight seasons) and a declining Rashard Lewis (points per game and free throw attempts have also declined for three straight seasons), you suddenly have a team whose window of opportunity probably closed shut already. And second, Orlando needs to make a coaching change. I will not rip Stan Van Gundy for being a terrible coach because any coach who can get a team to/past the Eastern Conference Finals on a consistent basis deserves some recognition. However, he cannot get them over the hump and on that final podium, which is the main goal of any coach. Clearly, something needs to be done; and the fact that management did not make any significant player changes may be a signal of what is soon to come.

Atlantic Hawks

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  53-29
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Lost in Second Round

Key Additions:  Josh Powell

Like the Magic, the Hawks also felt that their current collection of players would suffice for this upcoming season. Again, I find myself confused. How is it that you stick with the same group of guys despite the fact that year after year you do not advance past the second round? Don't you notice a trend? Why not try to make some improvements? Instead, the Hawks decided to stick it out with the same starting five, a couple of bench holdovers, and some new additions, highlighted mainly by former Lakers backup Josh Powell. Powell gives the Hawks some much-needed depth at forward, some decent rebounding ability, and an unselfish personality. But not much else.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Al Horford

To me, the Hawks will go as far as Horford takes them. Much like Nelson on the Magic, Horford is the only one of the major Hawks players whose stock is going up. Horford has shown great improvement in each of his first three seasons, and if he can develop into a go-to scorer down-low, the Hawks are in great shape. Until then, they lack any sort of advantage when put up against teams like the Heat, the Celtics, and the Magic. Mike Bibby has peaked as a professional and is on his way down; Joe Johnson is a star, but not a superstar; Marvin Williams has proven to be a draft bust; and Josh Smith is still one of the most exciting players in the league. I think what the Hawks need most is a dominant big man who can make a difference, offensively, in games, and a dynamic new point guard. With Horford, one of those things is very possible as soon as this year.

Rookie Spotlight:  Jordan Crawford

The guard out of Xavier has some nice potential for the Hawks. In his college days, Crawford was a number-one scoring option and a nightly guarantee to light up the scoreboard. I am not quite sure if his abilities translate well to the progressional game, but time will tell. He is a bit undersized to play shooting guard, so if he can improve his ball-handling abilities, he may be able to battle Jeff Teague for the backup point guard role. For this season, look for Crawford to get some minutes in garbage time and put together a couple of scoring barrages.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  3rd

While the Hawks will still be very competitive this season, I think they are letting their opportunity fly by them. The Heat have quickly become the team to beat for the next decade and the Magic, as long as Howard is around, will remain a close second. The Hawks have had some decent runs in recent years, but this group of guys is not going to win you anything beyond a first round series. And as deep as the East is this season, the Hawks will be lucky to even get that.

Washington Wizards

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  26-56
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian, Kirk Hinrich

The Wizards added three solid players to their roster this offseason. Howard was at one point one of the best small forwards in the game, though he has since regressed, mainly due to injuries. The potential for more ACL problems will certainly loom over him this season, but if he manages to remain healthy, Howard can still produce at a high level. Remember, during a three-year stretch earlier in his career, Howard guaranteed you 19 points and 7 boards per game. That would be a huge for this Wizards team.

As for Yi, I don't think he'll ever become the franchise center that NBA scouts envisioned. But I do think that he could be a solid contributor, especially because of his ability to draw opposing centers out to the perimeter with his three-point shooting. Unfortunately, the Wizards do not have a dominant inside-scoring threat that draws double teams, or else Yi would do a nice job at stretching defenses and punishing defenders for double-teaming.

Finally, Hinrich gives the Wizards a veteran point guard off the bench and someone who can mentor John Wall. Hinrich is good enough to be a starter on some teams and he will certainly give the Wizards solid play behind Wall.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  John Wall

With apologies to Agent Zero, Wall became the leader and most important player on this team from the moment NBA Commissioner announced his name on draft night. If you live under a rock and have not seen footage of Wall, all you need to know is that he might be the most talented point guard in the league right now. I'm not saying he is the best, because he obviously lacks valuable experience. But he is explosive, exciting, and an undoubted franchise player. The Wizards are a couple of years and one or two more pieces away from making the playoffs, but Wall will put people in the seats, earn consistent spots on highlight reels, and give the Wizards organization some hope.

Rookie Spotlight: 
John Wall

See above.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  4th

I think the Wizards have some nice young pieces and will make a strong run at 4th in the Southeast Division. Wall will be the focus night in and night out, but don't sleep on players like Nick Young, Al Thornton, Andray Blatche, and JaVale McGee.

Charlotte Bobcats

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  44-38
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  D.J. Augustin

See "Most Important Player" section below.

Key Losses:  Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler

I will get into the loss of Felton more below, but I think his loss will be felt in the standings in a dramatic way. As for Chandler, he has not fulfilled expectations throughout his career and his attitude leaves a lot to be desired. I think the Bobcats did right by letting him go and securing a nice frontline of Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Kwame Brown, Boris Diaw, and Tyrus Thomas.

Most Important Player: 
D.J. Augustin

Augustin takes over for Raymond Felton as the chief conductor of the Charlotte offense. Augustin is the most important player because I think Felton was a huge part of the team's surprising success last season. Remember, not only did the Bobcats have nine more wins last season than they did the previous year, but the Bobcats were competitive against a lot of tough teams; for example, they lost by 2 against the Lakers at Staples Center and later beat the Lakers by 15 in Charlotte. Anytime you take the point guard of a young team out of the equation, the chemistry can always go south in a hurry. And if the Bobcats hope to duplicate, or even improve on, last season's success, they need a seamless transition from Felton to Augustin.

Rookie Spotlight:  Sherron Collins

If the D.J. Augustin project does not work out, Sherron Collins is not a bad fallback option. The former Kansas star is a tough competitor and someone who does not shy away from big moments. People have questioned whether his size will prevent him from being great at the NBA level, but I don't buy into that criticism. I don't see Collins being an All-Star, but I can easily see him starting on a playoff contender.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  5th

The Bobcats' unexpected success last season probably resulted from a variety of factors including, but not limited to, Felton's emergence as a starting point guard, Stephen Jackson's emergence as a go-to scorer, Gerald Wallace's emergence as a special forward, and Larry Brown's influence as a head coach. Well, this season, Felton is obviously gone, and I don't think Jackson can duplicate the season he had last year; he's simply racking up too much mileage. Those factors coupled with the a dangerous young Wizards club will result in the Bobcats dropping back to cellar of the Southeast Division.

Monday, October 18

A Glimpse of Greatness: How Matt Barkley is Scratching the Surface of Expectations

After two straight games in which USC lost as time expired, the Trojans knew that Saturday's game was important. First, a victory would ensure that the team avoided its first three-game losing streak since 2001, Pete Carroll's first season. And second, a victory would send a clear statement to the nation that USC is still the same proud program--despite the sanctions--that won seven straight conference championships and multiple national championships. Well, in case you missed it, the Trojans accomplished both goals on Saturday night by delivering a 48-14 thumping on the California Golden Bears. While there were several things we can take away from that victory, one stood out from the rest:  Matt Barkley is as advertised and perhaps better. And when his college career is said and done, I would be shocked if he did not have a Heisman Trophy to his name.

The hype surrounding Barkley was enormous before he even set foot onto campus. People said it was only a matter of time before he would follow in the footsteps of Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart to become the next Heisman-winning quarterback at USC. Although he posted respectable numbers during his freshman campaign, plenty of people, including myself, doubted whether Barkley was the right guy for the program. For one, other quarterbacks within the conference, like Stanford's Andrew Luck, Arizona's Nick Foles, Oregon's then-starter Jeremiah Masoli, and Washington's Jake Locker, overshadowed Barkley; some had stronger arms, some had more agility, and others were more dependable.

Second, Barkley did not have any one performance that you could stamp as his "coming-out party." Although some would argue that his gritty performance at Ohio State in the biggest showdown of the year constitutes a "coming-out party," if you look at his individual numbers on that day, they do not exactly scream "Look at me, I have arrived!":  15-for-31 (48.4%) for 195 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. In the other eleven games he started, he only threw more touchdowns than he did interceptions in four of them:  at home against a pathetic San Jose State team, at home against an equally pathetic Washington State team,  on the road against an underachieving Notre Dame squad, and on the road in a blowout loss to Oregon. On the season, Barkley threw rougly one interception for every touchdown he notched (14 picks, 15 TDs). I would find it hard to believe anyone who could look me straight in the eye and say, with a straight face, that they thought Barkley, after his freshman season, was "the real deal." There was nothing in any of his performances that would lead a seasoned college football fan to draw that conclusion.

But what you could draw, however, was that Barkley was motivated by his freshman year struggles. The guy entered this season in better physical shape having lost some weight and better mental shape by staying focused amidst earth-shattering sanctions and a coaching staff overhaul. But being svelt and saying the right things do not mean anything unless you can put it all together and perform on the football field.

Barkley started the season on fire, throwing a combined seven touchdowns in his first two games. Granted, the competition was not exactly fierce (Hawaii and Virginia). Barkley's next two games were shaky, but showed glimpses of what he achieved in the prior two:  a mediocre effort over Minnesota and a tremendous first half but disappointing second half against Washington State. Then, just when it seemed like the quarterback was on his way to a great season, Barkley laid a goose egg at home against the Huskies:  14-for-20 for 186 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions. The performance was so pitiful (I saw it in person) that I thought we had seen a quarterback who completely regressed back to his freshman form. But just when most people hopped off the Matt Barkley Heisman Trophy Bandwagon, the sophomore signal-caller bounced back with the two most impressive performances of his young career.

Against a poweful and favored Stanford team, Barkley went threw for a career high 390 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; had the Trojans' porous defense  stopped Stanford on its eventual game-winning drive, it could have secured Barkley's first signature victory. Then, for an encore this past Saturday afternoon, Barkley carved up the other Bay Area squad. He threw for a school record 5 touchdown passes...in the first half (the record is both a first-half record and a single-game record). And if it weren't for some penalties down near Cal's goal line, Barkley would have had six scores.

As always, the box score does not tell the whole story. Against the Bears, Barkley coupled his strong decision-making with great passing. For the first of his five touchdown passes, Barkley scrambled to his right to evade a pass rush and then fired a bullet toward the front pylon of the end zone where Robert Woods made a magnificent grab with a defender draped on his back. For his next touchdown pass, Barkley again ran to avoid pressure and this time aired a ball out for David Ausberry down the right sideline. Barkley threw the ball knowing that Ausberry had a clear size advantage over the defensive back, and he threw the ball where only Ausberry could catch it--high and to Ausberry's back shoulder. Passes like these from Barkley were a dime a dozen in the first half, and if it were not for Kiffin taking his foot off of the pedal in a 42-0 game, Barkley certainly would have had a monstrous second half. Also, keep in mind that Cal's defense had been very solid against the pass. Here is what Cal's defense did against opposing quarterbacks in its previous five games:
  • 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
  • 166 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
  • 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
  • 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • 99 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
If you ask me, that is some pretty impressive pass defense. But apparently Barkley didn't care and made Cal's secondary look as bad as his own (although for what it's worth, USC's secondary played better that day; I even saw T.J. McDonald defend a pass with his head turned toward the ball! Miraculously, it resulted in a pick! Who would've thought?).

As it sits now, Barkley has thrown 20 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. He has completed nearly 60% of his passes (59.9% to be exact). He is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, which is a clear indication that he is looking downfield instead of underneath. He also is developing a great relationship with emerging star Robert Woods. The two have connected 19 times for 340 yards and 5 touchdowns in the past two games. Woods will be here at least for another season, if not two, and if other young receivers like Kyle Prater and Markeith Ambles can provide some help, Barkley would suddenly have a ridiculous wide receiving corps.

But maybe the biggest reason why Barkley will win a Heisman is because of the learning ability and growth he has demonstrated thus far under Kiffin. It is obvious that the defense needs help and the special teams has its own issues. USC's running game has always been a strength and at times it looked like USC would be a run-first, grind it out type team. But over the course of this season we have seen Barkley grow in front of our eyes. When I watch the offense play, I feel like they are unstoppable. Sure, they may punt once or twice per game, but I am very confident that when we need to score, Barkley will march us down the field and get us the points. No doubt. And eventually, barring any critical injuries, Barkley and his receiving corps will become a well-oiled machine that will remind SC fans of the days when Leinart spread the ball around to receivers like Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett, and Steve Smith. And on that day, Barkley will have lived up to the hype.