Friday, October 8

NFL 2010 Pyramid Rankings: First Quarter

Now that a quarter of the season has passed, let's take a look at how the teams of the NFL stack up in relation to one another, irrespective of divisions. I placed teams into six different tiers and then ordered them within those tiers. Teams are NOT ordered solely based on overall record, but rather based on a combination of overall record, quality of performance, and future outlook. Leave your thoughts in the "Comments" section and let the debate begin! Without further ado, the first edition of the Bringing the House 2010 NFL Pyramid Rankings...

Tier 6:  Looking Ahead to the Draft
The following teams might as well pack it in for the season and begin planning for the upcoming draft.

32. Bills
31. Raiders
30. Cardinals
29. Lions
28. Browns
27. Panthers

Tier 5:  Second-Half Spoilers
These teams are not going to make the playoffs, but they sure will make the second half of the season interesting with their abilities to stay competitive and challenge teams that might take them for granted.

26. Seahawks
25. Rams
24. 49ers

Ah, the dreadful NFC West. The 49ers might be the most disappointing team in football because many had predicted them to finally breakout, win the division, and become a contender. An 0-4 start leads me to believe that none of those predictions will come true. Meanwhile, the Rams and Seahawks, despite my low rankings here, have been somewhat surprising so far. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford looks like the real deal and at least makes games fun to watch. Up in the Pacific Northwest, the young Seahawks under Pete Carroll continue to thrive at home, but lie down on the road.

23. Bucs

Josh Freeman continues to progress, but the Bucs cannot really hang with any decent team; two wins so far over lowly Cleveland and Carolina, followed by a blowout loss to division-leading Pittsburgh.

22. Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew will enable this team to do some damage if a contender sleeps against the run down the stretch.

21. Broncos

Guess which quarterback leads the NFL in total passing yards? Denver's Kyle Orton. The Broncos will not make the playoffs this season, but Orton has made great strides and the team is good enough to compete in every game in plays.

Tier 4:  Pretenders
The teams listed below have started the season playing solid football as evidenced by .500 or better winning percentages. But don't be fooled by their quick starts out of the gate because they will probably fizzle out and not be in the playoff picture at the end of the season.

20. Giants

The G-Men might be the worst team in a pretty evenly-matched NFC East. I'm not saying they are terrible, but they are the odd team out.

19. Patriots

The Moss trade probably won't affect the Patriots as negatively as you may be tempted to think. However, the team has serious issues on defense, and if you don't think they have been exposed quite yet (news flash:  they have), then they certainly will be exposed in upcoming games versus Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota, Indy, and Green Bay.

18. Bengals

As much as it hurts to say, Carson Palmer peaked as a quarterback years ago, and the Bengals are not going to get over the hump with him as their field general. That being said, everyone was sold a bill of goods related to this team. Remember when everyone last year attributed the team's success to Cedric Benson and their run game? Yeah, Benson is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season. As for new sideshow acquisition Terrell Owens, if you take out last week's 10-catch, 222-yard performance, he's only caught 14 passes for 152 yards with zero touchdowns. Pretty subpar for a big-time free agent signing.

17. Bears

Don't let the Bears' 3-1 start trick you into thinking they are a legit contender. Jay Cutler is not good enough to win big games and the Bears have absolutely no running game. As for the supposed Monsters of the Midway, they rank 27th in opposing passing yards per game at 255.3. Can you say overrated?

16. Dolphins

Miami is a year or two away from the playoffs. But there style of play will enable them to win some tough games and remain competitive throughout the season even in losses.

Tier 3:  Finding their Way
These teams are closer to "contender" than they are to "pretender," and I reasonably expect them to perform above average for the rest of the season.

15. Chiefs

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season, the young Chiefs have shot out to a 3-0 start that began with a thrilling victory over the Chargers on the first Monday night of the season. They followed that up with a close victory over Cleveland and then a thumping of the 49ers. Look, I know people are still skeptical of the Chiefs. But to the doubters I say look at the numbers and look at their predecessors. Specifically, this team can run the ball (160.7 yards per game) and they can stop the run (75.0 yards per game against). As for their predecessors, I don't mean last year's Chiefs. I mean last year's Jets, because these Chiefs look very similar. A young QB from USC who people doubt can win games with his arm, a dominant rushing attack, and an aggressive defense. I'm not saying the Chiefs make the AFC Championship Game, but perhaps they are a dark horse for a wild card spot or even the AFC West crown.

14. Cowboys
13. Titans
12. Redskins


I think these three teams will find ways to a put forth solid performances the rest of the way. The Skins are still looking for an identity, but I have tons of confidence in Donovan McNabb, and I don't think he will let this team fail. Furthermore, although the Skins have stumbled early, the two wins that they managed to salvage were against interdivisional opponents, which is some nice silver lining.

Like the Skins, I expect the Titans to find a way to turn things around, mainly because they did it last year. Their run game will always be strong with Chris Johnson, and their defense, currently top-15 in both rushing and passing against, will keep them in most games. Finally, Vince Young will find ways to win with both his arm and his legs.

"America's Team" had lofty expectations coming into the season, but has failed to deliver through its first three games. The first two games were plagued by undisciplined moments--big turnovers and costly penalties. But in its most recent game against the Texans, the Cowboys finally put it all together. And despite the 1-2 record, the Cowboys have posted numbers that normally would result in a better record (4th in offensive passing; 14th in defensive passing; 8th in defensive rushing).

11. Vikings

Minnesota has gotten off to the most disappointing start of any team in the NFL, but a small minority of people, myself included, foresaw their struggles. Favre does not look the same as he did during his career season of last year; that, coupled with the injury to Sidney Rice, has resulted in a pathetic 24th-ranked passing offense. That being said, Vikings fans should not fear for two reasons. First, Randy Moss is back, and I think the implications will be huge. And second, the team's defense is one of the strongest in the league--ranked 8th in opponent passing yards per game and 9th in opponent rushing yards per game--and will buy the offense time to work out its kinks.

10. Eagles

I really like Philly as long as Michael Vick plays quarterback. He should only miss a couple weeks with his injured ribs, so if Kevin Kolb can keep the team competitive during Vick's absence, then I have confidence that the Eagles can make it out of the NFC East. The division seems very jumbled, not only in record, but in actual ability. This team will go as far as Vick can take them.

9. Colts
8. Chargers

San Diego and Indy are two teams accustomed to winning their divisions with much competition. But both teams have gotten off to rough 2-2 starts highlighted by some devastating losses; the Chargers lost road games to two surprise teams, one during a rainstorm in Kansas City and the other to the Seahawks and their rowdy fans. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and company got shellacked in week one by the upstart Texans and then lost a slugfest to the Jaguars last week after kicker Josh Scobee hit a field goal from what seemed like miles away. The bottom line, however, is that these teams still have immense talent and are under the guidance of incredible quarterbacks. They are just too good to miss the playoffs.

Tier 2:  Almost There (On the Cusp)
This tier consists of teams that have been very solid through the first quarter of the season, but have questions that need to be answered. These teams are strong, but incomplete. In order to join the elite teams above, they need to patch up their holes.

7. Packers
6. Saints

Before the season, the Saints and Packers were considered by many to play in the NFC Championship Game. As Super Bowl Champions, the Saints were the obvious team to beat. And minus an overtime loss to the Falcons, they have looked pretty solid. However, they can't run the ball, and they can't stop the run. And although a dominant run game is not necessary because this is a passing league, you have to be able to stop the opposition from running. And they have not been able to do so thus far; they allowed 118 yards to Carolina, 202 yards to Atlanta, and 142 yards to San Francisco. If they don't stop the run, their defense will be on the field longer during games. And if the defense is on the field more, that means Brees is on the sideline. And Brees can't score from the sideline, regardless of how good you think he is.

For the Packers, the issue is putting everything together and delivering complete performances on a consistent basis. Obviously, they have the talent; a prolific passer at the helm (Aaron Rodgers), a great receiving cast (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley), and several potential defensive player of the year candidates on defense (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews). But for whatever reason the team has yet to live up to their potential. Like the Saints, they can't run the ball and they can't stop the run.

5. Texans
The 3-1 Texans have been a huge surprise because of the way in which they have won their games--not through the air, but on the ground. Yes, QB Matt Schaub looks like he is on his way to another huge statistical season, but RB Arian Foster has emerged out of nowhere to lead the league in rushing, mainly on the heels of an incredible week one effort against the Colts. The Texans have the most explosive offense in the league, currently ranking 8th in passing yards per game (243.5) and 1st in rushing yards per game (172.0). The only concern for the Texans, as it has been in recent years, is the defense. While they ranked dead last in opponent passing yards per game by allowing a whopping 337.8 yards per contest, they surprisingly rank 2nd in opponent's rushing yards per game at 70.3. The return of suspended linebacker Brian Cushing will certainly help.

4. Falcons

The A-T-L is flying under the radar, but after examining their body of work thus far, I have to put them at the top of the second tier. Their lone loss comes at the hands of a tier one team (Steelers) in overtime on a breakaway run by one of the league's top rushers (Mendenhall). But other than that, the Falcons have shown the ability to play a complete game (41-7 victory over Arizona) and win a close game against a tough team (Saints) and a dangerous sleeper (49ers). One attribute of good teams is that they find ways to win games when things are not going according to plan. Last week against the 49ers, the Falcons got off to a slow start and trailed 14-0 after the first quarter. But the team shut out the Niners for the final three quarters and kicker Matt Bryant nailed his second game-winning field goal of the season to give the Dirty Birds the victory. But the thing that stuck out was star wide receiver Roddy White's incredible hustle play at the tail end of a Matt Ryan interception. After 49ers cornerback Nate Clements intercepted Ryan late in the fourth quarter, he commenced a mad dash for the end zone. However, White chased down Clements and knocked the ball loose, allowing the Falcons to regain possession and march down the other way for Bryant's eventual kick.

What impresses me most about Atlanta, however, is their overall balance. Through four games, the Falcons rank 10th in the league in passing yards per game, 4th in rushing yards per game, 18th in passing yards against, and 11th in rushing yards against. That's pretty solid. Not to mention, the rest of the schedule looks pretty soft, and a final record of 12-4 seems very reasonable.

Tier 1:  Leading the Pack
The following teams have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the teams in the league. These teams sit in the driver seats of their respective divisions and play every week with a target on their backs.

3. Steelers
2. Jets

I rank the Jets above the Steelers for two reasons; first, the Jets have a more explosive offense as evidenced by dropping 28 on the Patriots, 31 on a tough Miami team on the road, and 38 against the Bills. Sanchez has progressed more than anyone could have predicted, and with Santonio Holmes due back this Monday, things should only get better. And although LaDainian Tomlinson's resurgence is great for the boys from the Meadowlands, the team will only go as far as Sanchez takes them. After week one, I jumped off the Jets bandwagon, but their performances in the past three weeks have made me a believer again. As for the Steelers, running back Rashard Mendenhall has had a nice start and has proven to be a solid number one running back. The defense leads the league in rushing yards allowed (62.3). But, perhaps most importantly, the team gets Big Ben back this weekend. Roethlisberger will help the Steelers and their second-to-last place passing game, and his experience will guide them to another deep playoff run.

1. Ravens

All the questions coming into the season concerning the Ravens injury-ridden secondary now seem absolutely silly. The Ravens have jumped out to an impressive 3-1 start by allowing the least amount of passing yards per game (119.0). Although running back Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco have gotten off to slow starts, their mediocre performances are more a product of facing tough defenses than individual regression. The fact is that the Ravens have victories over the other two teams in the top tier, the Jets and the Steelers, and that has to count for something. The only blemish on their record thus far is a week two loss to the Bengals in a close game on the road. For the record, the Bengals did not score a single touchdown in that game; kicker Mike Nugent nailed five field goals.

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