Tuesday, October 19

NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Miami Heat

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  47-35
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House

The Miami Heat basically have a completely new roster. Once Dwyane Wade, LeBron, and Bosh had announced that they were joining forces in South Beach, everyone immediately asked what players the Heat management would bring in to support the stars. People thought the team simply did not have enough cap space to run out a complete team. What some may not realize is that each of the three stars took a pay cut to make this all a reality. The pay cut allowed the Heat to retain some young talent, like point guard Mario Chalmers, as well as some solid, unselfish big men, like Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem. The Heat then took the leftover money and began courting players who could fill roles that you commonly see on championship teams:  the outside sharpshooters (Miller and House), veteran big men off the bench (Ilgauskas, Juwon Howard, and Jamaal Magloire), and young guys who can provide sparks of energy (Patrick Beverley and Da'Sean Butler).

I know critics will hate to admit it, but the Heat have a legitimate squad. They have three of the game's top twenty players, including two of the top four, and have other players--Chalmers, Miller, Haslem, and Ilgauskus--that would be starters on many other teams. On paper, this is one of the best teams in the league.

Key Losses:  Michael Beasley

While Beasley has a ton of promise, the off-court troubles and the opportunity to secure a guys who are already superstars led the Heat to give up the former Kansas State star. In essence, the Heat basically traded Beasley for LeBron or Beasley for Bosh, and I do not think you could find a GM who would turn those deals down.

Most Important Player:  Dwyane Wade/LeBron James

The dynamic duo will need to find a way to play together if this team is to have success this season and in future seasons. Miami is clearly Dwyane's world; he brought the city a championship and is the unquestioned face of the franchise. But LeBron has always been the big fish in a small pond, as well. So how will the two find a way to share the ball, the court, and the limelight? Eventually, someone has to defer and play Robin to the other's Batman. Specifically, who is going to take the last shot when the game is on the line? In my opinion, it has to be Wade. Over the course of his career, he has demonstrated on countless occasions the ability to hit the big shot. Furthermore, if there is any knock on LeBron, it is that he does not have that killer instinct or that finisher's mentality. Will LeBron face the truth in Miami and let Dwyane do the honors?

When it comes to the first three quarters of a game, I think coexistence will be easy. In fact, I think the two of them will be extremely fun to watch. In preseason games thus far, we have seen LeBron bring the ball up court as a point-forward. He has great court vision, amazing passing ability, and has always appeared to be an unselfish player. Giving LeBron the responsibility of distributing the ball may actually put him in a more comfortable role than he has ever been. But the success of this venture will depend almost exclusively on how the stars manage their egos.

Rookie Spotlight:  Da'Sean Butler

If you followed college basketball at all last season, then you know all about Da'Sean Butler. The forward from West Virginia made a reputation by hitting numerous, memorable buzzer-beating shots. It was truly amazing how Butler seemed to rise to the occasion and bury his opponents. The final moments of those close West Virginia games were almost comedic; every fan in the arena, every announcer covering the game, and every player on the court knew that Butler would get the ball. The defense would be designed to prevent Butler from getting the ball and prevent Butler from attempting a shot. Yet, time and time again, Butler would get the ball, create a shot, and nail it. Butler is a versatile player with great character and leadership ability. The Heat got a steal when Butler landed in their lap during the draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some minutes to spell LeBron and Wade this season, and certainly in the future.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

While some preseason injuries may temporarily thwart this Miami empire, I cannot imagine them finishing anywhere except atop this division. Talent wins out. Always. They have two of the four best players in the game today and the cast to provide valuable support.

In terms of winning a championship, I am not sure whether they win one this season or next or the year after that. But I can reasonably see it happening any season from here on out. Anyone that thinks otherwise is just in denial. The Lakers dynasty under Kobe will come to an end in a few years, if not sooner, simply because of age; the Celtics reign with their "Big 3" is pretty much over; the Spurs dominance with their "Big 3" is even more dead. This season is the start of a new era in the NBA.

Orlando Magic

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  59-23
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Lost in Third Round

Key Additions:  Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson

Evidently, the Magic felt as though the pieces that they in place last season are good enough to win this season. They brought back almost every on their two-deep depth chart and added Duhon to spell Jameer Nelson and "Q" to backup Mickael Pietrus. Richardson gives the Magic yet another three point shooter to whom Dwight Howard can kick out the ball. Duhon will share backup point guard duties with the flashy but inconsistent Jason Williams (aka White Chocolate).

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Jameer Nelson

Nelson is key to this team because everyone else in the starting five has either reached his potential or is on the way down. Nelson is the only one on the way up. He does not have the ability to take over any game with his scoring, but he can provide a steady 15-18 points per game if needed. More importantly, Nelson will need to remain healthy and manage a starting lineup filled with three guys who need touches:  Vince Carter, Howard, and Rashard Lewis. The Magic have been plagued by inconsistent point guard play for the past several seasons, and they need some stability at that position if they want to dethrone the Celtics and prevent the Heat from taking control in the East.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Stanley Robinson

Robinson is an extremely athletic, lengthy forward who can provide a spark off the bench through rebounding and blocking shots. While the Magic have Howard, they don't really have any other big men who play above the rim; Ryan Anderson is versatile but poses a big threat mainly beyond the arc; Marcin Gortat is a high-energy guy but makes his presence felt mainly on hustle plays; and new acquisition Brandon Bass is strong but lacks the athleticism to play with quicker forwards. Enter Stanley Robinson. He might not get many minutes, but expect him to have some nice highlights every once in awhile.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

While a lot of teams would be more than happy to finish second in their division and make a deep run in the playoffs, the Magic seem like they do this routine each year. In my opinion, I think this team has plateaued for two reasons. First, I think Dwight Howard is overrated. He is a great rebounder, a great shot-blocker, and definitely a freak athlete. But I don't think he is a dominant offense big man who can lead a team to a title. When you combine his limitations with an over-the-hill Vinsanity (points per game and free throw attempts have declined for three straight seasons) and a declining Rashard Lewis (points per game and free throw attempts have also declined for three straight seasons), you suddenly have a team whose window of opportunity probably closed shut already. And second, Orlando needs to make a coaching change. I will not rip Stan Van Gundy for being a terrible coach because any coach who can get a team to/past the Eastern Conference Finals on a consistent basis deserves some recognition. However, he cannot get them over the hump and on that final podium, which is the main goal of any coach. Clearly, something needs to be done; and the fact that management did not make any significant player changes may be a signal of what is soon to come.

Atlantic Hawks

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  53-29
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Lost in Second Round

Key Additions:  Josh Powell

Like the Magic, the Hawks also felt that their current collection of players would suffice for this upcoming season. Again, I find myself confused. How is it that you stick with the same group of guys despite the fact that year after year you do not advance past the second round? Don't you notice a trend? Why not try to make some improvements? Instead, the Hawks decided to stick it out with the same starting five, a couple of bench holdovers, and some new additions, highlighted mainly by former Lakers backup Josh Powell. Powell gives the Hawks some much-needed depth at forward, some decent rebounding ability, and an unselfish personality. But not much else.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Al Horford

To me, the Hawks will go as far as Horford takes them. Much like Nelson on the Magic, Horford is the only one of the major Hawks players whose stock is going up. Horford has shown great improvement in each of his first three seasons, and if he can develop into a go-to scorer down-low, the Hawks are in great shape. Until then, they lack any sort of advantage when put up against teams like the Heat, the Celtics, and the Magic. Mike Bibby has peaked as a professional and is on his way down; Joe Johnson is a star, but not a superstar; Marvin Williams has proven to be a draft bust; and Josh Smith is still one of the most exciting players in the league. I think what the Hawks need most is a dominant big man who can make a difference, offensively, in games, and a dynamic new point guard. With Horford, one of those things is very possible as soon as this year.

Rookie Spotlight:  Jordan Crawford

The guard out of Xavier has some nice potential for the Hawks. In his college days, Crawford was a number-one scoring option and a nightly guarantee to light up the scoreboard. I am not quite sure if his abilities translate well to the progressional game, but time will tell. He is a bit undersized to play shooting guard, so if he can improve his ball-handling abilities, he may be able to battle Jeff Teague for the backup point guard role. For this season, look for Crawford to get some minutes in garbage time and put together a couple of scoring barrages.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  3rd

While the Hawks will still be very competitive this season, I think they are letting their opportunity fly by them. The Heat have quickly become the team to beat for the next decade and the Magic, as long as Howard is around, will remain a close second. The Hawks have had some decent runs in recent years, but this group of guys is not going to win you anything beyond a first round series. And as deep as the East is this season, the Hawks will be lucky to even get that.

Washington Wizards

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  26-56
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian, Kirk Hinrich

The Wizards added three solid players to their roster this offseason. Howard was at one point one of the best small forwards in the game, though he has since regressed, mainly due to injuries. The potential for more ACL problems will certainly loom over him this season, but if he manages to remain healthy, Howard can still produce at a high level. Remember, during a three-year stretch earlier in his career, Howard guaranteed you 19 points and 7 boards per game. That would be a huge for this Wizards team.

As for Yi, I don't think he'll ever become the franchise center that NBA scouts envisioned. But I do think that he could be a solid contributor, especially because of his ability to draw opposing centers out to the perimeter with his three-point shooting. Unfortunately, the Wizards do not have a dominant inside-scoring threat that draws double teams, or else Yi would do a nice job at stretching defenses and punishing defenders for double-teaming.

Finally, Hinrich gives the Wizards a veteran point guard off the bench and someone who can mentor John Wall. Hinrich is good enough to be a starter on some teams and he will certainly give the Wizards solid play behind Wall.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  John Wall

With apologies to Agent Zero, Wall became the leader and most important player on this team from the moment NBA Commissioner announced his name on draft night. If you live under a rock and have not seen footage of Wall, all you need to know is that he might be the most talented point guard in the league right now. I'm not saying he is the best, because he obviously lacks valuable experience. But he is explosive, exciting, and an undoubted franchise player. The Wizards are a couple of years and one or two more pieces away from making the playoffs, but Wall will put people in the seats, earn consistent spots on highlight reels, and give the Wizards organization some hope.

Rookie Spotlight: 
John Wall

See above.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  4th

I think the Wizards have some nice young pieces and will make a strong run at 4th in the Southeast Division. Wall will be the focus night in and night out, but don't sleep on players like Nick Young, Al Thornton, Andray Blatche, and JaVale McGee.

Charlotte Bobcats

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  44-38
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  D.J. Augustin

See "Most Important Player" section below.

Key Losses:  Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler

I will get into the loss of Felton more below, but I think his loss will be felt in the standings in a dramatic way. As for Chandler, he has not fulfilled expectations throughout his career and his attitude leaves a lot to be desired. I think the Bobcats did right by letting him go and securing a nice frontline of Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Kwame Brown, Boris Diaw, and Tyrus Thomas.

Most Important Player: 
D.J. Augustin

Augustin takes over for Raymond Felton as the chief conductor of the Charlotte offense. Augustin is the most important player because I think Felton was a huge part of the team's surprising success last season. Remember, not only did the Bobcats have nine more wins last season than they did the previous year, but the Bobcats were competitive against a lot of tough teams; for example, they lost by 2 against the Lakers at Staples Center and later beat the Lakers by 15 in Charlotte. Anytime you take the point guard of a young team out of the equation, the chemistry can always go south in a hurry. And if the Bobcats hope to duplicate, or even improve on, last season's success, they need a seamless transition from Felton to Augustin.

Rookie Spotlight:  Sherron Collins

If the D.J. Augustin project does not work out, Sherron Collins is not a bad fallback option. The former Kansas star is a tough competitor and someone who does not shy away from big moments. People have questioned whether his size will prevent him from being great at the NBA level, but I don't buy into that criticism. I don't see Collins being an All-Star, but I can easily see him starting on a playoff contender.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  5th

The Bobcats' unexpected success last season probably resulted from a variety of factors including, but not limited to, Felton's emergence as a starting point guard, Stephen Jackson's emergence as a go-to scorer, Gerald Wallace's emergence as a special forward, and Larry Brown's influence as a head coach. Well, this season, Felton is obviously gone, and I don't think Jackson can duplicate the season he had last year; he's simply racking up too much mileage. Those factors coupled with the a dangerous young Wizards club will result in the Bobcats dropping back to cellar of the Southeast Division.

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