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With twelve weeks of football in the books, it is time for another round of the Bringing the House Pyramid Rankings. In a season filled with parity and surprises, we finally have a somewhat clear picture of where teams lie in relation to one another. While no one team has set itself apart from the rest, a group of six have clearly established that they have what it takes to win the Super Bowl. See where your team sits on the pyramid and let the debate begin!
Tier 7: Andrew Luck Sweepstakes
32. Carolina Panthers (1-10)
The most anemic team in the league has only two legitimate chances to win another game: this Sunday at Seattle and in Week 15 at home against Arizona. I doubt they win either contest, but as they say, "any given Sunday."
31. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
After a year or two of life as a contender, the Bengals have regressed back to their days as the laughing stock of the NFL. The best days of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are behind them; Palmer has gradually declined each season since the 2005-2006 campaign, and Ochocinco has recorded more than 60 yards receiving in only three of his eleven games this season. Did anyone predict that T.O. would have a better season than Ochocinco? Did anyone predict that Ochocinco would have more tweets than yards at this point in the year?
30. Detroit Lions (2-9)
If I were running the Lions, I would shut Matthew Stafford down for the year and focus on next season. The Lions have a lot to look forward to in the future, as the performance of Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, and Stafford this season provided Detroit brass with some reassurance that they drafted wisely. Why risk Stafford's health for some pointless end-of-the-year games?
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
By now, everyone has seen/heard Derek Anderson's ridiculous meltdown in front of the media after Monday night's embarrassing loss to the 49ers. Clearly, the Cardinals do not have adequate leadership to even resemble a stable NFL team. The team has lost six games in a row and looks as though they have thrown in the towel on the season. The saddest part of all of this may be the fact that Larry Fitzgerald's all-world talent is being wasted in its prime--regardless of who takes the snaps, the quarterback can't seem to get Fitzgerald the football (only 59 receptions so far this season).
28. Denver Broncos (3-8)
At this point, the Broncos are simply stat mongers; Kyle Orton continues his march at 3,000 passing yards and Brandon Lloyd continues to have a career season.
Tier 6: Still Competitive
27. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)
America's Team seems to have its mojo back after the firing of Wade Phillips. But Roy Williams' fumble on Dallas' final drive versus the Saints was the perfect way to sum up an incredibly disappointing season.
26. Buffalo Bills (2-9)
After losing eight games in a row to start the season, the Bills rattled off back-to-back victories over the Lions and Bengals. If you remember my second quarter rankings, I predicted that the Bills would win two in a row, although I had said those wins would be against the Bears and Lions, not Lions and Bengals. The Bills had a third straight victory on its way against the Steelers until Steve Johnson made his infamous drop in the end zone during overtime. If you didn't know about Johnson until his recent gaffe, believe me, this guy is the real deal. He is a true deep threat that has given the fans in Buffalo something to cheer alongside Harvard grad and starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Tier 5: Too Little, Too Late
25. Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
Call me a visionary or consider me lucky, but I predicted before the season started that the Vikings would not make the playoffs. At 4-7, in a highly competitive division, you can officially lock it in. The Vikings just can't seem to find any consistency, and in a year filled with so much parity, consistency is key. On a side note, in their win agains the Redskins, Favre threw neither a touchdown nor an interception, marking the first time since 2006 that he recorded a similar stat line in a game.
24. Cleveland Browns (4-7)
Has there been a more intriguing team than the Browns this year? Not only did nobody expect them to jump the Bengals in the AFC North, but the Browns have arguably the most impressive two-game sweep of any team this season--a 30-17 win over the Saints at the Superdome followed by a 34-14 demolition of the Patriots. The following week, the Browns fell just short of a ridiculous trifecta, losing to the Jets in overtime. Perhaps even more important than their current success is the positive outlook that the organization has for the future; quarterback Colt McCoy looks like the real deal and running back Peyton Hillis has emerged as an elite running back who will straight up steamroll defenders in his path.
23. San Francisco 49ers (4-7)
Having won three of their last four games and playing in a historically terrible division, the 49ers still have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the playoffs. I don't think they will do it, though. They have three tough road games remaining (at Green Bay, San Diego, and St. Louis). In the end, their 1-6 start will be too much to overcome.
22. Tennessee Titans (5-6)
Has any team gone from contender to failure as quickly as the Titans? Probably not (the Cowboys were never a contender during the season, only before the season began). After seven weeks of football, Tennessee was 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Then they lost four in a row, with their most recent defeat a 20-0 effort, or lack thereof, against the Texans. We all know about the Vince Young saga. Randy Moss, in three games with the team, has caught a whopping four passes for 49 yards and zero touchdowns. And their top cornerback looks like he is more interested in mixed martial arts than football. This train is headed for a huge wreck as the season creeps closer to the end.
21. Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Just two weeks ago, the Silver & Black was a trendy pick to win the AFC West. They had rattled off three straight wins, including two blowouts. Since then, however, they have dropped two games in a row, both in ugly fashion. In those two losses, star running back Darren McFadden, or Run-DMC, totaled 18 carries for 16 yards and no touchdowns (which brutally hurt my fantasy team).
20. Washington Redskins (5-6)
While the Skins looked as though they were going to be a dangerous team this season, it is now clear that their season will not include the playoffs. The 59-28 blowout loss to the Eagles, which was pretty much the Mike Vick Show, put the nail in the coffin.
Tier 4: Spoilers
19. Houston Texans (5-6)
The Texans, another trendy pick to the make playoffs, completely fell off the earth after their bye week. In the month of November, the Texans went 0-4, giving up an average of 30 points in each game.
Update (12/2/10): The Texans just lost to the Eagles 34-24, which marks another game in which Houston gave up 30+ points to their opponent. While I am tempted to drop the Texans even lower, I will wait simply because it would not be fair to punish them for a loss while all other teams have to wait until Sunday.
18. Miami Dolphins (6-5)
Injuries have really killed this team's chances at the playoffs. When healthy, they are a strong, balanced team stuck in a brutal division. While their offense, with weapons like Brandon Marshall and the emergent Davone Bess, gets all the publicity, their defense has been incredible; the Dolphins are 4th in opponent's passing yards per game (201.4) and 14th in opponent's rushing yards per game (103.9).
17. Seattle Seahawks (5-6)
Like the 49ers, the Seahawks can sniff the playoffs only because they play in the NFC West. Ultimately, I think they fall short for two reasons. First, they don't play defense (30th in opponent's passing yards per game and 22nd in opponent's rushing yards per game). Second, their home field mystique has been shattered twice in recent weeks (41-7 loss to the Giants, 42-24 loss to the Chiefs), and I think that will severely affect the team's confidence going forward.
16. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
You want to see a team whose mojo has completely disappeared? Look at the Colts. The third quarter of the season did not treat them well. Not only did they lose to their top rival New England Patriots, but they were embarrassed on their home turf against a resurgent Chargers team that seems to thrive against Manning. The 36-14 defeat was so bad that Indy fans booed the team off the field. I never thought I would have seen that. The Colts will miss the playoffs this season for the first time since…gee, I don't even know.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Except for Mike Thomas' miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans in Week 10, the Jags have pretty much flown under the radar all season long. They are not very flashy, but they are still dangerous and find ways to get the job done, mainly behind the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. While I don't think the Jags will make the playoffs, they have a good chance at finishing the season with an impressive 11-5 record if they can run the table against some middle of the road opponents.
Tier 3: On the Bubble
14. St. Louis Rams (5-6)
The Rams are my pick to win the NFC West and make the playoffs. And I think they will finish 8-8 on the season. This team has so much to look forward to with Sam Bradford. As a Seahawks fan, I dread the upcoming decade.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
The Bucs are probably the biggest surprise team of the year, and the emergence of Josh Freeman and wide receiver Mike Williams has been nothing short of magnificent. Unfortunately, the Bucs play in the best division in the NFC and, as a result, may miss out on the playoffs.
12. New York Giants (7-4)
After their bye week, everyone had proclaimed the Giants as the best team in the NFC, and some even the best team in the NFL. Well, the third quarter of the season proved that the midseason point is a bit too early to crown a champion, at least this season. The Giants were shocked, at home, against the Cowboys and then had a front row seat to the Mike Vick Show the following week. While the Giants are a good football team, I am beginning to doubt whether they will even make the playoffs this season.
11. San Diego Chargers (6-5)
The Bolts are the hottest team in the league and it looks as though they have hit the stride that will propel them into the playoffs. Philip Rivers continues to strengthen his MVP bid each week and his supporting cast is slowly getting healthy. The AFC West race will go down to the wire, but I think the Chargers will come out on top.
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Matt Cassel is quietly having an MVP-caliber season. Cassel has completed 60.4% of his passes, thrown for 2307 yards, and recorded a mind-boggling 22-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His current quarterback rating of 99.7 is fourth in the NFL behind only Mike Vick, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers, all players in the MVP discussion. Perhaps football fans can finally put to rest the thought that Cassel had one fluke year in New England under Belichick's system; he looks like the real deal, regardless of where he plays.
Tier 2: Sniffing the Super Bowl
9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)
Philly looked unstoppable until they flew into Chicago and got outplayed in the first three quarters against the Bears. In that game, Vick threw his first interception since 2006, albeit on a tipped pass. But Eagles fans should not worry too much because every team delivers a dud every now and then. I expect the Eagles to be standing strong at the end of the season.
Update (12/2/10): The Eagles just defeated the Texans 34-24. While the win is impressive, I cannot move Philadelphia up in the rankings simply because they notched another victory while other teams remain stagnant until Sunday.
8. Green Bay Packers (7-4)
I still love the Packers because they have a potent passing attack and a vicious defense. Despite a 7-4 record, the Pack has yet to hit full stride. When they do, they will be nearly unbeatable. Having said that, the Packers' four losses have each been by one field goal. How can you not take that into consideration when evaluating their whole body of work? When they win, they win big. And when they lose, they lose close games. Sounds like a dangerous team to me.
7. Chicago Bears (8-3)
All season long, I have said that the Bears are a fraud. But it is tough to look past an 8-3 record and four consecutive victories, the most recent of which was an impressive 31-26 win over the red hot Eagles. I still do not trust Jay Cutler in crucial situations; I still think the Bears lack a ground game; and I still wonder how those receivers are getting the job done. That being said, I have to give them credit for sitting atop the NFC North three-quarters of the way through the season. I do predict, however, that the Packers will overtake them for first place in the division when it's all said and done.
Tier 1: Super Bowl or Bust
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
While the Steelers were lucky to beat Buffalo and were embarrassed at Heinz Field by the Patriots, I still believe they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. The key for the Steelers will be getting Big Ben healthy for the big games; Roethlisberger looked as though he had finally gotten his timing back before he injured his ankle against the Bills. The team doctors are currently working on a special cleat for Big Ben, which would allow him to play in this Sunday's huge showdown against the Ravens. I have heard whispers that the Steelers need to win this game so that they can win the division and get a game at Heinz Field in the playoffs. But frankly, home field advantage is not too important for the Steelers. Although it would be great to be at home, they have proven that they can win on the road this season; they are 5-1 this year away from Pittsburgh. The reason why? Because their tenacious defense and bruising running game travel like no others in the league.
On a side note, the NFL's campaign against James Harrison continued this week as the league levied another $25K fine against the hard-hitting linebacker for his hit on Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Harrison's fine total is now at $125,000 on the season. While I think the emphasis on eliminating helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless players is great, Harrison's hit on Fitzpatrick looked perfectly legal to me. That is exactly how we teach kids to hit, isn't it? "Put your hat to his chest." Puzzling.
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
The Ravens are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL. If they can secure some sort of home field advantage, at least for one round, they have a chance to make it deep into the playoffs. One thing that puzzles me about the Ravens is why Anquan Boldin has not been featured more. In the past four weeks, Boldin has caught 2, 5, 3, and 3 passes. Furthermore, he has not gone over 50 yards once in that time and has only one touchdown. Sure, the Ravens have plenty of other weapons on offense, but you'd like to see your big offseason acquisition play big.
Finally, as good as the Ravens appear, it seems like they will fall short against the great teams. Two of their three losses come against the top two teams in the Bringing the House pyramid (Patriots and Falcons). And while they have victories over the Jets and Steelers, both victories were by a slim margin and occurred earlier in the year before each opponent had discovered its true identity. The Ravens will be tested this Sunday night against the Steelers and then in Week 15 against the Saints. Fortunately, both games are in Baltimore.
4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Who Dat looks like they are regaining their championship form just in time for the home stretch. They have won their past four games, including an impressive 20-10 victory over Pittsburgh. While Drew Brees' performance this season has not been up to expectations, he has improved as of late and will probably carry that momentum to the finish line. Most notably, Brees led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game against Dallas, which may have given him and his team their mojo back. The Saints are in an entertaining division race with the Falcons, and it looks like the two teams will battle until the final week for that top spot. Week 16 at Atlanta will be pivotal.
Despite Brees' struggles this year, the Saints have remained a player largely because of their defense. They currently rank 3rd in passing yards against (197.8 per game) and 15th in rushing yards against per game (108.9).
Most importantly, the Saints, who have been hampered with injuries all season, are finally getting healthy. Starting safety Darren Sharper is participating fully in practice this week, and tight end Jeremy Shockey is right there with him. Running back Pierre Thomas has seen limited action, but is making progress, as well. The Saints don't need these guys back now, but they will need them back eventually if they want to defend their title.
3. New York Jets (9-2)
The Jets' two losses were very, very ugly. They opened the season with a 10-9 loss to Baltimore and then in Week 8 got shutout by Green Bay 9-0. After each loss, everyone, including myself, panicked and said that Mark Sanchez and the offense was not good enough to carry the team to the title. Well, the Jets offense put all that criticism to rest by delivering a November to remember, putting up 23, 26, 30, and 26 points in four games. The key? The return, literally and figuratively, of Santonio Holmes, who has already made a number of big catches. Holmes has given Sanchez yet another weapon on the periphery.
The Jets are currently in a dogfight with the Patriots for first in the AFC East and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Monday night's head-to-head matchup will be huge in determining the fate of both clubs. But after that, both teams have very similar roads ahead; they both play the Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. The only difference? The Jets play at Pittsburgh, whereas the Pats host the Packers. When you combine their remaining schedules with the fact that the head-to-head showdown is at New England, I give the edge to the Pats and see them finishing on top at the end.
2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Randy who? Since trading Randy Moss, the Patriots have gone 3-1 and have looked better than they have all season. Tom Brady, who everyone thought would feel the effects of losing Moss the most, has performed at an even higher level, prompting his MVP campaign to pick up a ton of steam in recent weeks. Since losing his diva target, Brady has averaged 275 passing yards per game and thrown 11 touchdowns versus zero interceptions. Brady has thrown 23 TDs to only 4 picks this year.
The key to the Pats' success has been a balanced attack and big effort from every player on the team. While Brady's performance is rock solid week in a week out, the Pats have gotten valuable contributions from virtually every player on any given week. Last week against the Lions, Deion Branch recorded 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. In their impressive Week 10 dismantling of the Steelers, Rob Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns. In their Week 11 victory over rival Indianapolis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the ball 21 times for 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The list could go on.
When push comes to shove, the Patriots will be incredibly tough to beat. The Randy Moss saga brought the team closer together and gave them some motivation to prove that they can win without their former star. They have adopted a team mentality and bought into a system designed by the best coach in football, and they are led by one of the best quarterbacks of all time.
1. Atlanta Falcons (9-2)
After a perfect November for the Atlanta Falcons, I am finally a believer. The Falcons may have had the most impressive month of any team in football to this point. It started with a victory against a dangerous Buccaneers squad. Next, they defeated arguable the best team at the time, the Baltimore Ravens. Third, they went into St. Louis for a dangerous game against Sam Bradford and company and won by a convincing 34-17 score. And to cap it all off, they held off a surging Green Bay team last week.
The Falcons are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for three reasons. First, Matt Ryan. The third-year quarterback has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the game and is having a great season leading the surprising Falcons. He has thrown 19 touchdowns to only 5 picks and has completed nearly 65% of his pass attempts. In the month of November, Ryan did not throw a single interception en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. More importantly, however, Ryan has shown the ability to pull through when it matters most. Down 21-20 against the Ravens with 1:05 left in the game, Ryan took the ball at his own 20-yard line with a chance to deliver the game-winning drive in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Ryan did not disappoint. He led a 7-play, 62-yard drive in only 45 seconds and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Roddy White. And last week, against the Packers, Ryan took the ball in a tie game with only 56 seconds left on the clock. He managed the clock extremely well knowing the situation; he directed 6 plays for 20 yards in 47 seconds, and gave kicker Matt Bryant the opportunity to kick what turned out to be the game-winning field goal. Matt Ryan, nicknamed "Matty Ice," truly has ice in his veins.
The second reason why the Falcons will reach the Super Bowl is because they are a force at home and will likely have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Finally, the Falcons are such a balanced team that it makes preparing for them so much tougher. Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons on the outside, mainly Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But if you focus too much on defending the pass, the Falcons will run the ball down your throat with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Finally, their balance spans both sides of the ball; the Falcons are second in the NFL in turnover plus/minus at +11.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-10)
The most anemic team in the league has only two legitimate chances to win another game: this Sunday at Seattle and in Week 15 at home against Arizona. I doubt they win either contest, but as they say, "any given Sunday."
31. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
After a year or two of life as a contender, the Bengals have regressed back to their days as the laughing stock of the NFL. The best days of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are behind them; Palmer has gradually declined each season since the 2005-2006 campaign, and Ochocinco has recorded more than 60 yards receiving in only three of his eleven games this season. Did anyone predict that T.O. would have a better season than Ochocinco? Did anyone predict that Ochocinco would have more tweets than yards at this point in the year?
30. Detroit Lions (2-9)
If I were running the Lions, I would shut Matthew Stafford down for the year and focus on next season. The Lions have a lot to look forward to in the future, as the performance of Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, and Stafford this season provided Detroit brass with some reassurance that they drafted wisely. Why risk Stafford's health for some pointless end-of-the-year games?
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
By now, everyone has seen/heard Derek Anderson's ridiculous meltdown in front of the media after Monday night's embarrassing loss to the 49ers. Clearly, the Cardinals do not have adequate leadership to even resemble a stable NFL team. The team has lost six games in a row and looks as though they have thrown in the towel on the season. The saddest part of all of this may be the fact that Larry Fitzgerald's all-world talent is being wasted in its prime--regardless of who takes the snaps, the quarterback can't seem to get Fitzgerald the football (only 59 receptions so far this season).
28. Denver Broncos (3-8)
At this point, the Broncos are simply stat mongers; Kyle Orton continues his march at 3,000 passing yards and Brandon Lloyd continues to have a career season.
Tier 6: Still Competitive
27. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)
America's Team seems to have its mojo back after the firing of Wade Phillips. But Roy Williams' fumble on Dallas' final drive versus the Saints was the perfect way to sum up an incredibly disappointing season.
26. Buffalo Bills (2-9)
After losing eight games in a row to start the season, the Bills rattled off back-to-back victories over the Lions and Bengals. If you remember my second quarter rankings, I predicted that the Bills would win two in a row, although I had said those wins would be against the Bears and Lions, not Lions and Bengals. The Bills had a third straight victory on its way against the Steelers until Steve Johnson made his infamous drop in the end zone during overtime. If you didn't know about Johnson until his recent gaffe, believe me, this guy is the real deal. He is a true deep threat that has given the fans in Buffalo something to cheer alongside Harvard grad and starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Tier 5: Too Little, Too Late
25. Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
Call me a visionary or consider me lucky, but I predicted before the season started that the Vikings would not make the playoffs. At 4-7, in a highly competitive division, you can officially lock it in. The Vikings just can't seem to find any consistency, and in a year filled with so much parity, consistency is key. On a side note, in their win agains the Redskins, Favre threw neither a touchdown nor an interception, marking the first time since 2006 that he recorded a similar stat line in a game.
24. Cleveland Browns (4-7)
Has there been a more intriguing team than the Browns this year? Not only did nobody expect them to jump the Bengals in the AFC North, but the Browns have arguably the most impressive two-game sweep of any team this season--a 30-17 win over the Saints at the Superdome followed by a 34-14 demolition of the Patriots. The following week, the Browns fell just short of a ridiculous trifecta, losing to the Jets in overtime. Perhaps even more important than their current success is the positive outlook that the organization has for the future; quarterback Colt McCoy looks like the real deal and running back Peyton Hillis has emerged as an elite running back who will straight up steamroll defenders in his path.
23. San Francisco 49ers (4-7)
Having won three of their last four games and playing in a historically terrible division, the 49ers still have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the playoffs. I don't think they will do it, though. They have three tough road games remaining (at Green Bay, San Diego, and St. Louis). In the end, their 1-6 start will be too much to overcome.
22. Tennessee Titans (5-6)
Has any team gone from contender to failure as quickly as the Titans? Probably not (the Cowboys were never a contender during the season, only before the season began). After seven weeks of football, Tennessee was 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Then they lost four in a row, with their most recent defeat a 20-0 effort, or lack thereof, against the Texans. We all know about the Vince Young saga. Randy Moss, in three games with the team, has caught a whopping four passes for 49 yards and zero touchdowns. And their top cornerback looks like he is more interested in mixed martial arts than football. This train is headed for a huge wreck as the season creeps closer to the end.
21. Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Just two weeks ago, the Silver & Black was a trendy pick to win the AFC West. They had rattled off three straight wins, including two blowouts. Since then, however, they have dropped two games in a row, both in ugly fashion. In those two losses, star running back Darren McFadden, or Run-DMC, totaled 18 carries for 16 yards and no touchdowns (which brutally hurt my fantasy team).
20. Washington Redskins (5-6)
While the Skins looked as though they were going to be a dangerous team this season, it is now clear that their season will not include the playoffs. The 59-28 blowout loss to the Eagles, which was pretty much the Mike Vick Show, put the nail in the coffin.
Tier 4: Spoilers
19. Houston Texans (5-6)
The Texans, another trendy pick to the make playoffs, completely fell off the earth after their bye week. In the month of November, the Texans went 0-4, giving up an average of 30 points in each game.
Update (12/2/10): The Texans just lost to the Eagles 34-24, which marks another game in which Houston gave up 30+ points to their opponent. While I am tempted to drop the Texans even lower, I will wait simply because it would not be fair to punish them for a loss while all other teams have to wait until Sunday.
18. Miami Dolphins (6-5)
Injuries have really killed this team's chances at the playoffs. When healthy, they are a strong, balanced team stuck in a brutal division. While their offense, with weapons like Brandon Marshall and the emergent Davone Bess, gets all the publicity, their defense has been incredible; the Dolphins are 4th in opponent's passing yards per game (201.4) and 14th in opponent's rushing yards per game (103.9).
17. Seattle Seahawks (5-6)
Like the 49ers, the Seahawks can sniff the playoffs only because they play in the NFC West. Ultimately, I think they fall short for two reasons. First, they don't play defense (30th in opponent's passing yards per game and 22nd in opponent's rushing yards per game). Second, their home field mystique has been shattered twice in recent weeks (41-7 loss to the Giants, 42-24 loss to the Chiefs), and I think that will severely affect the team's confidence going forward.
16. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
You want to see a team whose mojo has completely disappeared? Look at the Colts. The third quarter of the season did not treat them well. Not only did they lose to their top rival New England Patriots, but they were embarrassed on their home turf against a resurgent Chargers team that seems to thrive against Manning. The 36-14 defeat was so bad that Indy fans booed the team off the field. I never thought I would have seen that. The Colts will miss the playoffs this season for the first time since…gee, I don't even know.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Except for Mike Thomas' miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans in Week 10, the Jags have pretty much flown under the radar all season long. They are not very flashy, but they are still dangerous and find ways to get the job done, mainly behind the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. While I don't think the Jags will make the playoffs, they have a good chance at finishing the season with an impressive 11-5 record if they can run the table against some middle of the road opponents.
Tier 3: On the Bubble
14. St. Louis Rams (5-6)
The Rams are my pick to win the NFC West and make the playoffs. And I think they will finish 8-8 on the season. This team has so much to look forward to with Sam Bradford. As a Seahawks fan, I dread the upcoming decade.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
The Bucs are probably the biggest surprise team of the year, and the emergence of Josh Freeman and wide receiver Mike Williams has been nothing short of magnificent. Unfortunately, the Bucs play in the best division in the NFC and, as a result, may miss out on the playoffs.
12. New York Giants (7-4)
After their bye week, everyone had proclaimed the Giants as the best team in the NFC, and some even the best team in the NFL. Well, the third quarter of the season proved that the midseason point is a bit too early to crown a champion, at least this season. The Giants were shocked, at home, against the Cowboys and then had a front row seat to the Mike Vick Show the following week. While the Giants are a good football team, I am beginning to doubt whether they will even make the playoffs this season.
11. San Diego Chargers (6-5)
The Bolts are the hottest team in the league and it looks as though they have hit the stride that will propel them into the playoffs. Philip Rivers continues to strengthen his MVP bid each week and his supporting cast is slowly getting healthy. The AFC West race will go down to the wire, but I think the Chargers will come out on top.
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Matt Cassel is quietly having an MVP-caliber season. Cassel has completed 60.4% of his passes, thrown for 2307 yards, and recorded a mind-boggling 22-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His current quarterback rating of 99.7 is fourth in the NFL behind only Mike Vick, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers, all players in the MVP discussion. Perhaps football fans can finally put to rest the thought that Cassel had one fluke year in New England under Belichick's system; he looks like the real deal, regardless of where he plays.
Tier 2: Sniffing the Super Bowl
9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)
Philly looked unstoppable until they flew into Chicago and got outplayed in the first three quarters against the Bears. In that game, Vick threw his first interception since 2006, albeit on a tipped pass. But Eagles fans should not worry too much because every team delivers a dud every now and then. I expect the Eagles to be standing strong at the end of the season.
Update (12/2/10): The Eagles just defeated the Texans 34-24. While the win is impressive, I cannot move Philadelphia up in the rankings simply because they notched another victory while other teams remain stagnant until Sunday.
8. Green Bay Packers (7-4)
I still love the Packers because they have a potent passing attack and a vicious defense. Despite a 7-4 record, the Pack has yet to hit full stride. When they do, they will be nearly unbeatable. Having said that, the Packers' four losses have each been by one field goal. How can you not take that into consideration when evaluating their whole body of work? When they win, they win big. And when they lose, they lose close games. Sounds like a dangerous team to me.
7. Chicago Bears (8-3)
All season long, I have said that the Bears are a fraud. But it is tough to look past an 8-3 record and four consecutive victories, the most recent of which was an impressive 31-26 win over the red hot Eagles. I still do not trust Jay Cutler in crucial situations; I still think the Bears lack a ground game; and I still wonder how those receivers are getting the job done. That being said, I have to give them credit for sitting atop the NFC North three-quarters of the way through the season. I do predict, however, that the Packers will overtake them for first place in the division when it's all said and done.
Tier 1: Super Bowl or Bust
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
While the Steelers were lucky to beat Buffalo and were embarrassed at Heinz Field by the Patriots, I still believe they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. The key for the Steelers will be getting Big Ben healthy for the big games; Roethlisberger looked as though he had finally gotten his timing back before he injured his ankle against the Bills. The team doctors are currently working on a special cleat for Big Ben, which would allow him to play in this Sunday's huge showdown against the Ravens. I have heard whispers that the Steelers need to win this game so that they can win the division and get a game at Heinz Field in the playoffs. But frankly, home field advantage is not too important for the Steelers. Although it would be great to be at home, they have proven that they can win on the road this season; they are 5-1 this year away from Pittsburgh. The reason why? Because their tenacious defense and bruising running game travel like no others in the league.
On a side note, the NFL's campaign against James Harrison continued this week as the league levied another $25K fine against the hard-hitting linebacker for his hit on Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Harrison's fine total is now at $125,000 on the season. While I think the emphasis on eliminating helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless players is great, Harrison's hit on Fitzpatrick looked perfectly legal to me. That is exactly how we teach kids to hit, isn't it? "Put your hat to his chest." Puzzling.
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
The Ravens are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL. If they can secure some sort of home field advantage, at least for one round, they have a chance to make it deep into the playoffs. One thing that puzzles me about the Ravens is why Anquan Boldin has not been featured more. In the past four weeks, Boldin has caught 2, 5, 3, and 3 passes. Furthermore, he has not gone over 50 yards once in that time and has only one touchdown. Sure, the Ravens have plenty of other weapons on offense, but you'd like to see your big offseason acquisition play big.
Finally, as good as the Ravens appear, it seems like they will fall short against the great teams. Two of their three losses come against the top two teams in the Bringing the House pyramid (Patriots and Falcons). And while they have victories over the Jets and Steelers, both victories were by a slim margin and occurred earlier in the year before each opponent had discovered its true identity. The Ravens will be tested this Sunday night against the Steelers and then in Week 15 against the Saints. Fortunately, both games are in Baltimore.
4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Who Dat looks like they are regaining their championship form just in time for the home stretch. They have won their past four games, including an impressive 20-10 victory over Pittsburgh. While Drew Brees' performance this season has not been up to expectations, he has improved as of late and will probably carry that momentum to the finish line. Most notably, Brees led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game against Dallas, which may have given him and his team their mojo back. The Saints are in an entertaining division race with the Falcons, and it looks like the two teams will battle until the final week for that top spot. Week 16 at Atlanta will be pivotal.
Despite Brees' struggles this year, the Saints have remained a player largely because of their defense. They currently rank 3rd in passing yards against (197.8 per game) and 15th in rushing yards against per game (108.9).
Most importantly, the Saints, who have been hampered with injuries all season, are finally getting healthy. Starting safety Darren Sharper is participating fully in practice this week, and tight end Jeremy Shockey is right there with him. Running back Pierre Thomas has seen limited action, but is making progress, as well. The Saints don't need these guys back now, but they will need them back eventually if they want to defend their title.
3. New York Jets (9-2)
The Jets' two losses were very, very ugly. They opened the season with a 10-9 loss to Baltimore and then in Week 8 got shutout by Green Bay 9-0. After each loss, everyone, including myself, panicked and said that Mark Sanchez and the offense was not good enough to carry the team to the title. Well, the Jets offense put all that criticism to rest by delivering a November to remember, putting up 23, 26, 30, and 26 points in four games. The key? The return, literally and figuratively, of Santonio Holmes, who has already made a number of big catches. Holmes has given Sanchez yet another weapon on the periphery.
The Jets are currently in a dogfight with the Patriots for first in the AFC East and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Monday night's head-to-head matchup will be huge in determining the fate of both clubs. But after that, both teams have very similar roads ahead; they both play the Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. The only difference? The Jets play at Pittsburgh, whereas the Pats host the Packers. When you combine their remaining schedules with the fact that the head-to-head showdown is at New England, I give the edge to the Pats and see them finishing on top at the end.
2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Randy who? Since trading Randy Moss, the Patriots have gone 3-1 and have looked better than they have all season. Tom Brady, who everyone thought would feel the effects of losing Moss the most, has performed at an even higher level, prompting his MVP campaign to pick up a ton of steam in recent weeks. Since losing his diva target, Brady has averaged 275 passing yards per game and thrown 11 touchdowns versus zero interceptions. Brady has thrown 23 TDs to only 4 picks this year.
The key to the Pats' success has been a balanced attack and big effort from every player on the team. While Brady's performance is rock solid week in a week out, the Pats have gotten valuable contributions from virtually every player on any given week. Last week against the Lions, Deion Branch recorded 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. In their impressive Week 10 dismantling of the Steelers, Rob Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns. In their Week 11 victory over rival Indianapolis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the ball 21 times for 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The list could go on.
When push comes to shove, the Patriots will be incredibly tough to beat. The Randy Moss saga brought the team closer together and gave them some motivation to prove that they can win without their former star. They have adopted a team mentality and bought into a system designed by the best coach in football, and they are led by one of the best quarterbacks of all time.
1. Atlanta Falcons (9-2)
After a perfect November for the Atlanta Falcons, I am finally a believer. The Falcons may have had the most impressive month of any team in football to this point. It started with a victory against a dangerous Buccaneers squad. Next, they defeated arguable the best team at the time, the Baltimore Ravens. Third, they went into St. Louis for a dangerous game against Sam Bradford and company and won by a convincing 34-17 score. And to cap it all off, they held off a surging Green Bay team last week.
The Falcons are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for three reasons. First, Matt Ryan. The third-year quarterback has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the game and is having a great season leading the surprising Falcons. He has thrown 19 touchdowns to only 5 picks and has completed nearly 65% of his pass attempts. In the month of November, Ryan did not throw a single interception en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. More importantly, however, Ryan has shown the ability to pull through when it matters most. Down 21-20 against the Ravens with 1:05 left in the game, Ryan took the ball at his own 20-yard line with a chance to deliver the game-winning drive in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Ryan did not disappoint. He led a 7-play, 62-yard drive in only 45 seconds and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Roddy White. And last week, against the Packers, Ryan took the ball in a tie game with only 56 seconds left on the clock. He managed the clock extremely well knowing the situation; he directed 6 plays for 20 yards in 47 seconds, and gave kicker Matt Bryant the opportunity to kick what turned out to be the game-winning field goal. Matt Ryan, nicknamed "Matty Ice," truly has ice in his veins.
The second reason why the Falcons will reach the Super Bowl is because they are a force at home and will likely have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Finally, the Falcons are such a balanced team that it makes preparing for them so much tougher. Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons on the outside, mainly Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But if you focus too much on defending the pass, the Falcons will run the ball down your throat with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Finally, their balance spans both sides of the ball; the Falcons are second in the NFL in turnover plus/minus at +11.
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