Saturday, August 14

My 2010 Fantasy Football Draft

My fantasy football league, run through NFL.com, hosted its draft this past Sunday, August 8th. I just wanted to breakdown my thoughts on the draft/results and my outlook for this year in fantasy land.

League Rules

To keep this interesting, I have sifted through the litany of rules and decided to highlight only the most interesting/important/unique ones. Specifically:
  • Passing TDs are worth 6 points each, which is the same as a rushing or receiving TD;
  • Receivers/running backs/tight ends receive 1 point per reception;
  • Twelve teams total in the league split evenly into three divisions; and
  • Teams will start two QBs, two RBs, four WRs, one TE, one K, and one DEF.
I had the 9th pick out of 12. Here is what I ended up with:

My Team
QB1:  Tom Brady
QB2:  Brett Favre
RB1:  Matt Forte
RB2:  C.J. Spiller
WR1:  Andre Johnson
WR2:  DeSean Jackson
WR3:  Vincent Jackson
WR4:  Josh Cribbs
FLEX:  Donald Brown
TE:  Zach Miller
K:  Dan Carpenter
DEF:  New Orleans Saints
Bench:  Matt Hasselbeck (QB), Ben Tate (RB), Michael Bush (RB), Derrick Ward (RB), Larry Johnson (RB), and New England Patriots (DEF)

Analysis
  • My first pick was Andre Johnson. I thought I was extremely lucky to get him with my position in the draft. Johnson is the best wide receiver in fantasy football, and if you factor in the point-per-reception league setting, Johnson is actually better than some of the top tier running backs (like Frank Gore, for one). In fact, using our scoring settings on the stats last season, Johnson only 6 points behind Adrian Peterson and 9 points behind Maurice Jones-Drew, who taken 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in this draft. A huge steal.
  • The second thing I noticed was that I have the best quarterback combination in the league with Tom Brady and Brett Favre. Managers in my league simply did not place enough emphasis on quarterbacks. They overvalued running backs, and I was counting on that as I was doing my draft prep. With touchdown passes worth the same as rushing/receiving touchdowns, Brady and Favre instantly have more production potential than every running back, even Chris Johnson. If you use this season's scoring on last season's stats, both of my quarterbacks outscored every running back outside of Chris Johnson. Brady and the rest of the Patriots are healthy and I look for them to have a big year. And if Favre plays (which I bet he will), he will have a great year as he looks for redemption. I feel sorry for the managers who did not end up with two above average QBs. And here I sit with two All-Pro QBs.
  • A third interesting thing is the underrating of wide receivers by the managers in my league. It is a point-per-reception league, and wide receiver is a very shallow position, compared to running back (more on this later). I already told you about Andre Johnson. But add to him DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, and Josh Cribbs. The two Jacksons are both elite wide receivers in terms of consistent production. To have three of the seven-ish elite wide receivers is amazing. I look for DeSean to have another big year in Andy Reid's offense with Kolb doing a solid job of filling in for Donovan McNabb. Vincent Jackson is suspended for the first three games of the year, and that will undoubtedly hurt. But, assuming he settles his contract issues (God help me), he should be back in time to have a huge season in the San Diego offense. Rivers is an elite QB, and Jackson is arguably his top target. Finally, Cribbs is a jack-of-all-trades who can break for a score in a variety of ways. With the talent at WR getting shallow late in the draft, I decided to grab Cribbs because he is a threat in a variety of ways (running, catching, returning).
  • As for running backs, I don't have a strong team by any means. But running back is an overrated position in our league for two reasons. First, as mentioned earlier, their touchdowns are devalued in our scoring system. Why take Adrian Peterson with 18 touchdowns last season when you can have Brett Favre with 33 touchdowns? That's almost double the points from TDs. But more importantly, running back is a very deep position even after the elite five or six at the top. Dozens of teams go with two-headed running attacks or running back-by-committee that it is tough to predict who exactly will get the carries, yards, and touchdowns. What I decided to do was draft for quantity. I picked up Matt Forte who, although he is not elite, is in a one-back system, so he provides me some consistency. Then I picked up high potential playmaking rookie C.J. Spiller, and a variety of guys, most notably Donald Brown, that should contribute enough to make a fantasy impact. If you want a good read about the depth at running back in the fantasy world, check out Matthew Berry's article, The Draft Day Manifesto 2010 Edition
  • Tight end is a position that if you do not get a top guy like Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark, you should wait and pick up someone decent enough or with high potential, like John Carlson of the Seahawks, or in my case, Zach Miller of the Oakland Raiders.  Miller is an up and coming star who produced very solidly last season and should only build or even break out this season within the improved Raiders offense. The addition of Jason Campbell at quarterback will give him a passer who can effectively and consistently get him the ball (just as Campbell got Chris Cooley the ball over and over again in Washington).
  • Kicker is irrelevant in fantasy football. Anyone who drafts a kicker in a round other than the last does not know what he/she is doing. Dan Carpenter will get the job done.
  • Finally, defense is an interesting position because there are definitely elite defenses and you don't want to get stuck with a terrible squad. I went with the Saints because they are a playmaking squad who forces turnovers. I think it's wise to draft or at least pick-up an additional defense so that you can play whichever of your two has a better matchup in a given week. I went with the Pats as my second defense. They are not exactly the Monsters of the Midway, but they are definitely a solid backup option.
In all, I am very pleased with my fantasy team. My only concern, and I suppose it's a big one, is whether or not two of my bigs guys--Favre and Vincent Jackson--play. And if they do, how much do they play? We all know Favre's routin. He is "injured" right now, but the "injury" seems to heal more with every additional dollar the Vikings throw at him. I say he comes back just in time for the regular season and helps the Vikes win the NFC. Meanwhile, Vincent Jackson will miss at least the first three games with his suspension for substance abuse, and he may sit out an additional 5-10 games for contractual reasons (holding out for a long-term deal). That would be devastating to both my team and the Chargers. So let's hope it doesn't reach that point. Here's to another fun and competitive fantasy football season! Good luck to anyone playing the game this year.
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