Game Tape: What Auburn Can Learn from the Civil War

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On Saturday night, the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers met for the 114th time in the rivalry's storied history. This meeting, however, was different. For the first time in the history of the Ducks' program, the team was on the verge of playing for a national championship. If Oregon could find a way to beat their instate rival, then they could book their tickets to Glendale, Arizona. Meanwhile, the Beavers looked not only to spoil the hopes of their hated counterpart, but also to notch an important sixth victory that would give them bowl eligibility.

Halfway through the annual affair, the destiny of each time was clear. Oregon, sticking to their trademark dizzying pace, dismantled the Beavers the same way that they have dismantled all of their other opponents this season. The Beavers, perhaps not surprisingly, couldn't get enough stops on defense and couldn't move the ball enough on offense.

Typically, I like to frame post-game perspective from a "What We Learned" perspective. But, from this showing, what did we learn that we didn't already know? Nothing. So, instead, let's approach the recap from Auburn's perspective; that is, what will Auburn see when they watch film of this game and see Oregon for possibly the first time. This is a synopsis of Oregon with examples of important points of emphasis drawn from the Oregon State victory. Let's jump right in…

1.  Full Speed Ahead

Anyone who has seen Oregon play this year knows that their offense looks like a blur to opposing defenses; the blur runs by you and before you know it the Ducks are celebrating in the end zone. Here are the scoring drives of the Ducks against the Beavers, with numbers of plays, yards, and time of possession:

• Touchdown #1:  9 plays, 60 yards, 2:43
• Field Goal #1:    4 plays, -7 yards, 0:52
• Touchdown #2:  7 plays, 74 yards, 1:48
• Touchdown #3:  7 plays, 79 yards, 1:43
• Touchdown #4:  6 plays, 71 yards, 2:34
• Touchdown #5:  5 plays, 43 yards, 2:43

As you can see above, the Ducks score fast and often. The problem for Auburn is that there is really no way to slow the Ducks down. The California Bears tried to fake injuries, and while one could argue that the strategy worked, it certainly didn't fit well with those who noticed. I can't imagine Auburn, or any championship-level team, resorting to a delay tactic like that. Realistically, Auburn needs to do three things:  1) Consistently score points on offense with long, grinding drives; 2) Force Oregon into committing turnovers; and 3) Work on the defense's conditioning to remain standing in the second half. There's no trickery involved. The players have to be in shape and prepared for the pace.

Side note:  On Oregon's final drive of the game, it was clear that Chip Kelly wanted to slow their own pace down and begin to burn some clock. Any football coach would have done the same in that situation. But wasn't it odd to see Oregon burn clock? It looked so unnatural. Quarterback Darron Thomas milled around the line of scrimmage for a bit, glanced at the clock, and waited until two seconds to line up under center and snap the ball. It looked like what you would see if you asked a mixed martial arts fighter to spar at only 50% intensity. It was just odd. And the funniest part? The fact that Oregon State still couldn't stop Oregon; LaMichael James ended the drive with a 10-yard touchdown run that began the celebration for the Ducks.

2.  Chippin' Away

Oregon coach Chip Kelly has officially arrived as a big-time head coach. Not only has he introduced and perfected an offensive scheme that maximizes his players' talents and creates dozens of mismatches throughout a game, but his in-game decision-making is very, very solid. In addition to making good decisions on fourth-down situations (Oregon was 2-for-3 against the Beavers on fourth-down), Kelly knows when to pull a trick out of his hat and really punch the other team in the face.

On Oregon's second drive in the second half, Oregon had a 4th and 3 on their own half of the field. Kelly sent out the punt team and had everyone in the stadium and everyone watching on television thinking punt. It was a given. Well, almost. Kelly called a direct snap to the up-back and the punter faked as if the ball had been snapped over his head. Oregon State's defense parted like the Red Sea and linebacker-turned-halfback Michael Clay burst down the field for 64 yards. Three plays later, Thomas completed a 19-yard pass to D.J. Davis for a touchdown and, just like that, Oregon was up 23-7. Kelly has tons of confidence in himself and his players, and that confidence is a powerful force that shows up whenever Oregon plays. He is not afraid to go for two, to onside kick, to fake punt or field goal…he is fearless.

Fortunately, for Auburn, the SEC conference has a Chip Kelly equivalent, at least in terms of gutsiness; his name is Les Miles. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik will have to bring his "A" game to the BCS National Championship if he wants to help Cam Newton take down the Ducks.

3.  Run, Baby, Run

If you cannot keep containment on the edges, Oregon will run wild on you. Just ask the Beavers. Oregon State actually did a decent job defending the run up the middle, likely because they have talented defensive tackle Stephen Paea. But the defensive ends and linebackers were not able to prevent LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner from getting to the edges.

James and Barner combined for 43 carries for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. They were always one step ahead of the defense. And even when it seemed like the Beavers had one of them stopped for a loss in the backfield, they found a way to get loose and turn it into a positive gain. But that's nothing new for James and Barner--they have done it all season long.

James, likely to be the Heisman Trophy runner-up behind Cam Newton, failed to reach 100 yards only twice this season (94 yards versus ASU and 91 yards versus California). He reached the 200-yard mark three times, with a season-high 257 yards against fourth-ranked Stanford. He also rushed for at least one touchdown in all but one game and rushed for two touchdowns or more in eight of eleven contests. James and company average 300 rush yards per game.

However, Auburn has quite a stellar rush defense--good for 10th in the nation. Led by Nick Fairley, the Tigers surrender only 108 rush yards per game, so clearly something has to give.

4.  Dependability

While Oregon's two-headed monster at running back (LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner) get all the attention, the team's quarterback and number-one wide receiver fly under the radar. But Auburn better not sleep on Darron Thomas and Jeff Maehl. While the two players aren't flashy, they will hurt you with their flawless execution.

Although Thomas is only a sophomore and a first-year start in Chip Kelly's system, he plays like a four-year veteran who has the discipline and composure to win a national championship. Never mind the fact that Thomas has only one 300-yard passing game this year; Kelly does not ask him to throw the lights out each week. Instead, Kelly asks him to use his judgment and make sound decisions in the read-option offense, something that many quarterbacks struggle to do. But Thomas seems to always make the right reads and right choices; he knows when to keep it himself, he knows when to give it up to James or Barner, and he knows when to pull the trigger and fire downfield. When he drops back in the pocket, he also shows lots of patience and goes through his progressions. Auburn--likely with Nick Fairley--will need to find a way to rattle Thomas and try to break him down.

Speaking of being rock solid, Oregon wide receiver Jeff Maehl is as dependable as they come. He doesn't have the star power of receivers like Julio Jones or A.J. Green, but Maehl has created a strong reputation for himself this season. Against the Beavers, Maehl finished the game with 7 catches and 86 yards. Surprisingly, Maehl didn't catch a touchdown pass. In fact, this was the first game since week two against Tennessee that Maehl did not catch a touchdown pass--he had caught a TD in nine consecutive games! Why doesn't he get more pub? He is physical, not afraid to go over the middle, has great hands, and is great after the catch. The Auburn secondary will have its hands full with Maehl.

5.  Don't Sleep on the Defense

Everyone knows Oregon can score, but did you know that Oregon can stop teams from scoring at a relatively solid rate? In fact, the Ducks are 14th in the nation in points against, surrendering only 18.4 points per game. To be fair, that number might be dragged down by shutouts against New Mexico and Portland State, but let me dive deeper.

According to cfbstats.com, Oregon ranks first in passes defended and passes broken up and ninth in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Additionally, they are five interceptions off the nation's leader, Alabama, and do not allow many big plays.

Against the Beavers, Oregon's defense set the tone from the very beginning when tenacious linebacker Casey Matthews leveled Beavers' quarterback Ryan Katz, leaving the freshman starter dazed and confused. Matthews and the rest of the Oregon front seven was able to get consistent pressure on Katz, which forced him into throwing four interceptions.

I think Auburn will have the power advantage, but Oregon will have the speed advantage--on both sides of the football. It will certainly be an interesting battle and test of styles. Will the speedy but undersized Oregon front seven be able to chase down and stop Cam Newton, who has been known to truck through defenders?

Conclusion

In summary, Auburn will have to digest a lot after they watch game tape of the Civil War. You can't find another team that is even remotely close to Oregon in style, and it will be tough to mimic in practice. But Auburn is in the big game for a reason and I expect their coaches to prepare them well. This will be a championship game to remember. I'll put up a full preview in the coming weeks.

Three Observations from the Iron Bowl

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1. In Cam We Trust

A little over one week ago, I announced that I will cast my fictitious Heisman Trophy vote for Auburn quarterback Cam Newton. As I detailed in that post, Newton's gaudy numbers speak for themselves. My only worry was that the pending NCAA and FBI investigations regarding his eligibility would turn off some of the members of the Heisman fraternity, thus making LaMichael James's or Kellen Moore's Heisman bids more hopeful. With the controversy swirling above his head, Newton was asked to deliver in perhaps the biggest Iron Bowl match in the rivalry's long history. For the past several weeks leading up to this game, all the talk surrounded Alabama; the Crimson Tide was coming off of a Thursday game, which gave them one extra day to prepare for Newton's one-man show; the Crimson Tide was regarded by many as the most complete team in the nation; and surely, if there was one defense that could slow Newton down, it was the Tide. Add to those factors the home-field advantage that the Tide would have at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama had won 20 straight games coming into today, and it seemed as sure of an "upset" as one could possibly get.

At the end of the day, however, the Auburn Tigers had Cam Newton, and Alabama did not. Sure, the star quarterback got off to a rough start and turned in his least productive thirty-minute stretch of football this season; in the first half, Crimson Tide defenders were everywhere. Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart called all the right plays at the right times. Bama defenders played with discipline, did not miss any tackles, and flew to the football on every play. The defense was so dominant that if it was your first time watching Cam Newton play quarterback, you would have thought he was nothing special. Through two quarters, Newton had rushed 9 times for -10 yards. Negative ten! And through the air, Newton had only recorded 97 yards, giving him a net of 87 total yards. In his eleven prior games, Newton averaged 303 total yards of offense per outing. So at the half, he was quite a ways off from his normal production output.

But during halftime, Newton and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (more on him later) must have done something to rejuvenate themselves because the Auburn leader was a completely different player. He was, well, his normal self. Against the same defense that had shut him down in the first half, Newton, in the second half, threw for 119 yards, including three touchdowns. He also added 49 rush yards and 1 rushing touchdown. While his total offense (255 yards) was down from his per game average, here is what you should focus on:  Newton rebounded from an abysmal first half by reaching the end zone four times in the second half. He responded to adversity in a big way. And perhaps being overlooked is also the fact that for as bad as Newton played in the first half, he did not turn the ball over at all. If you are Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, you ought to have--and I am sure that he does--100% confidence in Newton in any situation in any game. Cam is that damn good.

2. Guz Malzahn and Ted Roof, Auburn's Unsung Heroes

As we all know, Auburn's first half went terribly; the offense looked overmatched and the defense looked confused. At the end of the first quarter, with Auburn trailing 21-0 and looking like they had lost all hope for a national championship, you could hear (or at least see in the Twittersphere), Tigers fans calling for the heads of Malzahn and Roof, especially the latter, the team's defensive coordinator. But like Newton, the two coaches kept their composure after Alabama delivered its best punches. They went into the locker room at halftime down 24-7 knowing, however, that there was still 30 minutes of football left to play.

On the offensive side of the ball, Malzahn knew that he would have to dial up the passing attack, at least open up a ground game that had been stifled up to that point, if they were to get back in the game. After opening the second half with a predictable read-option, Malzahn called for a deep ball to wide receiver Terrell Zachery. Newton, per usual, delivered a nice pass to his man and Zachery was able to haul it in despite an oncoming Alabama safety who should have intercepted the pass.

After that play, the field was effectively stretched and Auburn began running the ball as we are all used to seeing. On the scoring drive that brought the score to 24-21, Auburn rushed 5 times for 49 yards and the touchdown (Newton up the middle to break the single-season rushing touchdown mark previously held by Bo Jackson and Cadillac Williams--some decent company).

Then on the eventual game-winning drive, Auburn rushed 4 times for 32 yards, 10 of which came on Newton's longest run of the day. They did so while picking up the pace and putting the Alabama defense on its heels. While Auburn's 108-yard rush total is meager compared to their standard 300-yard performances, the run game made a difference in this contest regardless. But it was Malzahn's halftime adjustments to 1) use the pass to open up the run, and 2) speed up the pace of the game, that made the difference.

On the defensive side of the ball, Roof got his boys to play arguably their best half of the season. After Alabama ran its first play of the second half, I immediately noticed a difference in Auburn's defense; in my notes, I wrote "Auburn defense looks faster, more energized, and determined." The Tigers made big hits, deflected passes, and swarmed the football. Check out the following half-by-half statistics of Alabama:

• ALA Total Yards (1st):  379
• ALA Total Yards (2nd):  67

• Greg McElroy (1st Half):  19-for-23, 335 yards, 2 TD
• Greg McElroy (2nd Half):  8-for-14, 42 yards, 0 TD

• Julio Jones (1st):  7 catches, 174 yards, 1 TD
• Julio Jones (2nd);  3 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD

• ALA Rushing (1st):  16 carries, 44 yards, 1 TD
• ALA Rushing (2nd):  14 carries, 25 yards, 0 TD

The defensive turnaround was the biggest story of the game in my book. With Auburn trailing at the half, it was irrelevant, to a certain extent, how many points Newton could put up in the second half if Auburn's defense continued to surrender big plays and clock-eating drives to the Crimson Tide. Roof found a way to get the job done and, as a result, his job should be secure.

3. Nick Fairley, the Next Warren Sapp

Critics call Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley's style of play dirty and overaggressive; advocates call it hard-nosed and passionate. Say what you want to about Fairley--the guy is a monster and a game-changer on the interior line.

On Alabama's third drive of the game, Fairley rushed through the middle of the offensive line and sacked McElroy. On that play, Fairley was actually lined up as a linebacker, which showed his great versatility as a defensive player. Fairley was then called for excessive celebration--a call which I did not agree with. Fairley, whether justified or not, has had, and will have, a target on his back. The call gave Bama a 4th and 4, which the coaching staff seized as an opportunity and the players subsequently converted. Not only was the call very questionable, but it was a big momentum shifter. Fairley had given the Tigers a big stop on third-down, but that loss of yardage was negated.

On the Crimson Tide's fifth drive from scrimmage, when the Tide was at the Tigers' goal line, Fairley made an amazing play on running back Trent Richardson. Fairley, from his knees, crawled as fast as he could and managed to trip up Richardson to prevent a touchdown. Not only was it a great hustle play and a show of his athletic ability, but it was a big stop for the Tigers in that it prevented the Tide from reaching the end zone; they held Alabama to only three points.

On Alabama's next drive, Fairley caused a huge turnover in, yet again, the red zone. He ran right past Alabama's guard and leveled McElroy, who coughed up the football. Fairley then had the awareness to scurry to the football and cover it up to retain possession. It was incredible.

We have all seen just how much of a difference that a dominant defensive tackle can make in a game. At the pro level, Warren Sapp, also known as the QB Killa, was best known for dominating in the middle. This season, we have seen the Detroit Lions' rookie Ndamukong Suh provide a lot of stability in the middle of their defensive line. Fairley will do the same for an NFL team someday.

Separating Truth from Speculation: Why the Cam Newton Saga Should Not Affect the Heisman Race

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With about one month and a half remaining in the college football season, the Heisman Trophy race remains intriguing not because the on-field accolades of competing stars are comparable, but instead because the off-field decisions of the award's front-runner are under intense scrutiny. If you have been living in a cave for the past couple weeks, or if you are completely confused by the Cam Newton saga, click here for a nice synopsis of the entire drama. I, however, am tired of sifting through rumors, reports, and speculation--I will let the FBI, the NCAA, and any other red-tape infested bureaucracy deal with it. Instead, I want to focus on the implications of the drama as it relates to Newton's Heisman Trophy bid.

At this point in the season, if you voted based on only on-field production, Newton would win the Heisman in a runaway. The numbers that he has posted are pretty surreal, even from a historical perspective. Listen to this:  Prior to his last game against Georgia, Cam Newton accounted for more touchdowns than 71 entire FBS teams this season. And he has done so in arguably the toughest conference in college football against teams like LSU, Arkansas, and South Carolina. It really does not matter who or what you throw at him--he finds ways to reach the end zone. Newton currently has 21 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown.

What is even more fascinating is comparing Newton to the other Heisman candidates. His main competition is Oregon running back LaMichael James and Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore. When you look at his skills and athletic ability, Newton is the hybrid of Moore and James. Furthermore, and perhaps even more impressive, when you look at the numbers, he is the aggregate of Moore and James. Look at the following comparison between Cam Newton and Kellen Moore, as passers:

Newton:  135-for-198 (68.2%), 2,038 yards (10.29 YPA), 21 TDs (183.58 rating)
Moore:    174-for-242 (71.9%), 2,588 yards (10.69 YPA), 24 TDs (191.15 rating)

Statistically, Newton and Moore are pretty similar. Obviously, Moore is better across the board, but you have to factor in Newton's competition and his running abilities. Next, let's look at the breakdown between Newton and LaMichael James, as rushers:

Newton:  206 carries, 1297 yards (6.3 avg), 17 TDs
James:     225 carries, 1422 yards (6.3 avg), 17 TDs

Again, Newton and James are pretty similar, and even more so than Newton and Moore, because in this case Newton and James have the exact same number of touchdowns and average the same number of yards per carry. In this comparison, you also have to factor in Newton's passing statistics. In both cases--Newton versus Moore and Newton versus James--the Auburn quarterback holds his own. And when you factor in both sides of his game--running and passing--it becomes no contest. The numbers say enough.

Speaking of numbers, look at where Cam Newton stands in comparison to some FBS teams in the following statistics:

Total Yards:

West Virginia - 3,375
Newton - 3,335
Pittsburgh - 3,329
LSU - 3,241
Washington - 3,132

Points Per Game*

Texas - 21.7
Newton - 21.3
Rutgers - 21.2
UCLA - 20.7
Boston College - 19.3

*Remember:  PPG for teams includes points from field goals and extra points; Newton's points per game does not

How ridiculous are those above numbers? I am literally comparing one player to entire teams. Unbelievable.

But of course, we must ask, how does the off-field circus affect his on-field production in the context of the Heisman race?

Taken directly from the website, the mission of the Heisman Trust is to "annually [recognize] the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity…Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work." As I demonstrated above, Newton is clearly the most outstanding college football player on this planet. His performances thus far have been excellent. His great ability is certainly the result of diligence, perseverance, and hard work. Now, what about that key word, integrity?

Newton is by no means a saint. His legal troubles during his brief stint at Florida have been well documented; he was cited for countless moving violations, he stole someone's laptop, and he was caught cheating on multiple occasions. But all that stuff happened in the past. Newton left Florida, enrolled at a junior college, and began anew at Auburn. We Americans value second chances. We believe in redemption and rebirth. And while Newton's past may color your view of his current situation, we shouldn't be too quick to judge.

My point is that as of right now, I give Newton the benefit of the doubt. We can't just assume that all of the rumors are true. Nothing has been proven yet--it is all hearsay at this point. Until the NCAA, the FBI, or our justice system makes an official ruling on the situation, we should act as though Newton and his father acted with integrity throughout his post-junior college recruitment and his time at Auburn. It's the fair thing to do. As a result, if we vote on what we know, instead of what we think, then Cam Newton is worthy of every first-place Heisman vote.