ALDS Preview: Yankees vs. Twins

Schedule

Game 1:  C.C. Sabathia (NYY) vs. Francisco Liriano (MINN)
October 6, 2010 @ 8:37 P.M. ET

Game 2:  Andy Pettitte (NYY) vs. Carl Pavano (MINN)
October 7, 2010 @ 6:07 P.M. ET

Game 3:  Phil Hughes (NYY) vs. Brian Duensing (MINN)
October 9, 2010 @ 8:37 P.M. ET

Game 4: TBD (NYY) vs. Nick Blackburn (MINN)
October 10, 2010 @ TBD

Game 5:  TBD

Offense

Everyone knows that the Yankees have a stacked lineup. Every spot in the order represents a tough out for opposing pitchers. But for whatever reason, the team has sometimes fallen asleep for stretches during the season. I think the key to the Yankees offense will be none other than Alex Rodriguez, who had a memorable postseason last year. A-Rod was recently named AL Player of the Month for September after he helped the Yankees secure their Wild Card berth by supplying enough power to get them through some lackluster games. But A-Rod is the key not only because of his ability to change games with one swing of his bat, but also because of his position in the lineup; if he performs well and puts fear in the Minnesota pitchers, Mark Teixeira will get better pitches to hit. And if A-Rod can manage to get on base at a consistent rate, MVP-candidate Robinson Cano will have plenty of opportunities to drive in Rodriguez, as Cano has done all season.

If the Yankees do fall in a rut with their power hitting, Brett Gardner gives them the option of playing "small ball" and manufacturing runs. Gardner has an impressive on-base percentage and, if he reaches, can cause havoc on the base paths--he ranked 3rd in the AL with 47 stolen bases this season. Gardner can also use his speed to leg out triples on balls hit to the gaps, or use his bat control to lay down nice sacrifice bunts. He gives the Yankees an element that they have not had in previous seasons, which is a luxury that could pay dividends.

As for the Twinkies, Joe Mauer is the obvious key to their offensive success. Mauer's power has regressed since last season, but his average remains unbelievably high and his at-bats are truly special to watch. But because former-AL MVP Justin Morneau has been officially ruled out of the first series, the Twins need people to step up and protect Mauer in the lineup. Left-fielder Delmon Young did the job all season on his way to career bests in batting average (.298), home runs (21), and runs batted in (112). But can Young continue his success in the postseason? As we all know, the playoffs are a completely different animal, and not all players are cut out for the spotlight. If it isn't Young, it will be up to a combination of the rejuvenated Jim Thome, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel. The Twins have found ways to win games all season, so although the lineup does not look intimidating on paper, you would be foolish to count them out.

Edge:  Yankees

Starting Pitching

It is difficult to figure out this aspect of the series. Obviously, the Yankees have the best pitcher on either team in C.C. Sabathia. The Cy Young candidate has postseason experience and is a legitimate workhorse at the top of the rotation. You can rest assured that manager Joe Girardi will pitch Sabathia in two games this series, most likely the in first and the fourth games (if necessary). Sabathia gets a clear edge over Liriano not only because Sabathia is one of the best in the league, but also because we don't know what Liriano will bring to the table. Although he was recently named Comeback Player of the Year, Liriano still has not been as consistent as the Twins had hoped this year. If he's firing on all cylinders, Liriano has the stuff capable of shutting down the Yankees lineup, but that's a big "if."

Once you move past the two staff's aces, it begins to get interesting. The Yankees have no idea what they are going to get Pettitte or Hughes. The veteran left-hander is coming off a long disabled-list stint and has only had three starts to work himself back into form. In those three outings, Pettitte only pitched well in the first one, going six innings at Baltimore and only surrendering one run. In his next two starts, both against the Red Sox, Pettitte gave up a combined nine earned runs in only 7.1 innings. On the other hand, Hughes really sputtered after the All-Star break. The young righty posted earned run averages of 5.17, 5.52, 4.22, and 4.85 in the months of June, July, August, and September, respectively. If the Yankees plan to make it past the Twins, they desperately need one of these two guys to step up and give them a solid performance. If that doesn't happen, the Yankees can kiss their title hopes goodbye.

For Minnesota, starting pitching is not as much of a mystery as the arms have been consistent throughout the season. Pavano, perhaps powered by his trademark facial hair, has had a resurgent year. But rookie left-hander Brian Duensing has been even more of a surprise. I think Duensing has a legitimate shot at winning American League Rookie of the Year, although the Rangers' Neftali Feliz will probably walk away with the award. The key for Duensing will be his ability, or inability, to get rid of the inevitable jitters that accompany a pitcher's first postseason appearance. If he can do that and give the Twins six or more strong innings, the Twins will be in good shape.

Edge:  Tie

Relief Pitching

The Yankees relief pitching was suspect during the majority of the season, but came on very strong as the season came to an end. Midseason acquisition Kerry Wood gives the Yanks a powerful arm to bridge the team over to legendary closer Mariano Rivera. The Yankees bullpen performed so well, in fact, that it was pretty difficult for Girardi to make his bullpen cuts. In the end, he decided to leave off Ivan Nova in favor of Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley. The two young arms will have the responsibility of entering the game for long relief in the event that one of New York's starters gets shelled early.

For the Twins, depth is the name of the game. They have three pitchers who can legitimately be starting closers on major league squads:  Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, and Matt Capps. The Twins will need consistently strong performances from those three, as well as from middle relievers Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier, to finish games late against an experienced Yankees lineup. My only concern with the Twins' back-end arms is that they are all relatively inexperienced in the postseason and I think they have yet to show their true colors (translation:  I think they are overrated).

Edge:  Yankees (because of Rivera)

Managing

Although Girardi has made some very questionable decisions with regard to personnel in the past month, the man led his team to a championship last season, and that cannot be forgotten. Rod Gardenhire, on the other hand, has had very minimal success in the postseason, especially against the Yankees. That being said, this year may be a different story; Gardenhire is my pick for AL Manager of the Year based on what he has done with a Twins team that was forced to play through injuries to key players like Morneau, pitcher Nick Blackburn, and star closer Joe Nathan.

Edge:  Yankees (barely)

Series Outlook

I think the Twins have the potential do knock the Yankees out in the first round. But I don't think it will happen. I think Sabathia will give the Yankees two dominant starts and one of Pettitte or Hughes will supply a third victory, which will send the Twins home. Ultimately, I think the Yankees are just too experienced and too talented to have a let down this early in the postseason. Do I think the Yanks will win it all? That remains to be seen based on what matchups are presented. But for now, I think the Yankees will escape on to the championship series. I predict Yankees in 4 games.

Looking in the Mirror: How King Felix and C.C. Sabathia Have Forced Us to Reexamine Pitching Greatness

Lately, baseball analysts, writers and bloggers, and even current players and managers have engaged in a heated discussion concerning this season's American League Cy Young Award race. While everyone agrees that the award should be given to the league's "best" pitcher, nobody can agree on exactly how to define "best." What criteria, or stats, should be considered when evaluating a pitcher's season? And how much does each metric weigh in relation to one another? Perhaps no Cy Young discussion has called upon these questions more than the one in our midst today. Although you could arguably make a case for a handful of pitchers, two of those guys, Seattle's Felix Hernandez and New York's C.C. Sabathia, have received the brunt of the attention.

By now, everyone knows the story. King Felix dominated hitters all season long en route to leading the league in a plethora of pitching statistics. However, despite the gaudy numbers, Hernandez only won 13 games. Sabathia, on the other hand, collected 21 victories while posting strong, but not dominant, numbers. Regardless of which side of the argument you fall on, one thing is clear:  the discussion requires us to examine how we define success for starting pitchers. In other words, how much weight should we assign to wins and losses, and how much weight do we give to other statistics, such as innings pitched, strikeouts, earned run average, etc.?

Historically, the baseball world has judged starting pitchers based on wins. In terms of individual career accomplishments for pitchers, the 300-win club is second to none. Of the thousands of pitchers who have ever toed the rubber, only 24 of them have reached the 300-win milestone. Of those 24, twenty (20) have been eligible for Hall of Fame induction, and all 20 have been enshrined. For the record, the four to be determined are Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Tom Glavine; three of those four guys are no-brainer first-ballot dudes, and the fourth is a juice-head. But for a variety of reasons, we may never see another 300-game winner, and because of that, voters and fans from this day forward must alter the way they judge pitching careers.

Well, the same adjustment must be made when we examine individual season accomplishments. The Cy Young, the pinnacle of single-season success for pitchers, has long trended toward pitchers with high win totals; from 1967 through 1990, only six (6) starting pitchers won the Cy Young Award after winning less than 20 games that season. From 1991 through the present day, that number skyrocketed to 17 starting pitchers who have won the award after winning less than 20 games. In recent years, the trend has been strongest, with eight of the past ten winners across both leagues winning the prestigious award with less than 20 wins. I do not believe that voters are purposely devaluing win totals, but instead they are placing less weight on win totals because they understand that, in the new era of innings limits and pitch counts, wins are simply tougher to secure.

Not only are wins tougher to come by, but the sabermetric movement has convinced many that wins are a misleading statistic. Anyone that watches baseball can tell you that wins depend on a variety of factors:  the starting pitcher must pitch deep enough into the ball game to qualify for a decision, the pitcher must exit the game while his team is ahead, and the bullpen must keep that lead and win the game, to name a few. But, to prove a point, the difficulty in obtaining a win can be illustrated using a recent example. Only July 1, 1990, Andy Hawkins of the New York Yankees pitched a no-hitter against the Chicago White Sox but lost the game. A baserunner reached on an error, and after Hawkins walked the next two batters to load the bases, a fielder committed another error that allowed all three runs to score. The guy did not allow a single hit over the course of eight innings (he was the visiting pitcher), and not only did he not win, but he lost. This tells us that a perfect storm is required to win a game; there are dozens of factors outside of his control that can increase or decrease his chances on a given night. Thus, wins are products of opportunity, much like saves. Granted, pitchers have more control over wins than closers do over saves, but you get the picture.

Sabermetric stats have tried and succeeded, as much as possible, to separate those outside factors from a starting pitcher's performance. Complete isolation is never possible, but with stats such as fielding independent pitching, wins above replacement, and batting average on balls in play, we can more accurately gauge a pitcher's performance minus the "other stuff." I urge you to explore sabermetric stats on your own on the internet at various websites, such as this one.

Ultimately, any award must involve a holistic examination of the candidates. You cannot simply look at wins just as you cannot simply look at earned run average or any more intense isolated stat. Having said that, I believe Felix Hernandez deserves the Cy Young more than C.C. Sabathia. I think the decision is not as hard as it seems and can be concluded simply by having watched the two pitch all year. But if you want the numbers, then search around because you will find breakdowns and analyses everywhere. I'll leave it up to you to research, but for now I just wanted to hone in on why we're arguing over the merits of the two great pitchers; that is, because we're transitioning from old to new perspectives on pitching greatness.

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