Off the Mark: Why the Jets Won't Reach the Super Bowl

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After its magical run to the AFC Championship Game last season, the New York Jets raised expectations for this year's campaign during an offseason that not even Martin Scorsece could have imagined. First, the Jets released three much-beloved and highly productive veterans (running back Thomas Jones, left guard Alan Faneca, and kicker Jay Feely). The front office used the newly freed-up money to sign younger players to contract extensions and make a few headline-grabbing acquisitions. Most notably, they brought in two stars of the recent past (LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor) and two athletic playmakers (cornerback Antonio Cromartie and wide receiver Santonio Holmes).

Then the Jets organization collectively wet its pants for 36 consecutive days as star cornerback and most-important-player Darrelle Revis held out of training camp and threatened to sit out the season. But one week prior to the team's opener versus Baltimore, the Jets mopped up the situation by giving Revis a new 4-year, $46 million deal.

And finally, the Jets opened their training camp doors to HBO's film crew as the feature team for this season's Hard Knocks television series. For those of you who did not watch the show, it was the most captivating and surreal sports-related content--outside of LeBron James' Decision--of the summer. Head coach Rex Ryan stole the spotlight as he laced each episode with expletive-filled rants. He was loud, boisterous, confrontational, and controversial; he was the perfect reality television personality. And he took plenty of heat for it, too.

Broadway show aside, the Jets entered the season as confident as ever. Everyone expected the nasty defense from last season to pick up right where it left off. Young quarterback Mark Sanchez, one year removed from his rookie season, had matured during the offseason. The team got younger and more skilled through personnel changes. Heck, the city even built a beautiful new stadium for them. It seemed like everybody was on the Jets bandwagon screaming J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS!

But after a pathetic performance in week one against the Ravens on Monday Night Football, let's put things into perspective and hold off on crowning the boys from the Meadowlands. Unlike many of the analysts on TV, I am not going to second-guess the Jets and what they did during the offseason. I, as a matter of fact, thought the Hard Knocks series was great. It was enjoyable, it brought publicity to a team that not many people outside of New York knew about, and I actually think the way everyone behaved seemed pretty natural. In other words, I don't think the show cost them anything in terms of productivity or performance.

Ultimately, my prognosis of the Jets and how their season plays out boils down to one simple fact:  The Jets have a lot of great pieces that can help them reach and even win the Super Bowl; however, they lack the most important one--a legitimate quarterback/passing attack. Before I get into my argument, let me preface it by reminding you that I am a huge Mark Sanchez fan. Of all the quarterbacks I have witnessed since I donned the cardinal and gold, Sanchez is by far my favorite. I love the way he plays the game. I think he's got lots of talent and a bright future in the league. To this day, I still believe that had Sanchez stayed in college for his senior season, USC would have won the national championship that year. But I will save that discussion for another time. My point is that I am in no way anti-Mark Sanchez. So any criticism that I dish out is a product of objective analysis and not subjective dislike. USC/Jets/Sanchez fans, brace yourselves…

The Jets cannot win the Super Bowl this season because Mark Sanchez is not a good enough quarterback at this stage in his career. Maybe in a few years, but definitely not this year. I know Jets fans argue that the Jets brand of football (run-heavy, tenacious defense) can hide a mediocre/undeveloped quarterback. Many football fans subscribe to the belief that you don't need a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady to win the Super Bowl. Instead, they say, you can survive with a quarterback that manages the game and minimizes mistakes. To be fair, I used to believe in that philosophy. But in reality, it just doesn't work. Success in today's National Football League is increasingly related to a team's ability to throw the football. Sure, running is great. You can control the tempo and the clock and pound the other team into the ground. But at the end of the day you better be able to air it out if you want to win, or even make it to, the big one.

Going back to the 2002 Super Bowl, here are the two starting quarterbacks in each Super Bowl and the number of passes that each player attempted that season:

2009:  Drew Brees (514); Peyton Manning (571)
2008:  Ben Roethlisberger (469); Kurt Warner (598)
2007:  Eli Manning (529); Tom Brady (578)
2006:  P. Manning (557); Rex Grossman (480)
2005:  Roethlisberger (268); Matt Hasselbeck (449)
2004:  Brady (474); Donovan McNabb (469)
2003:  Brady (527); Jake Delhomme (449)
2002:  Brad Johnson (451); Rich Gannon (618)

If you take the average of those numbers you arrive at 500 pass attempts per season (Side note:  the average should be higher because Roethlisberger's 2005 season total comes from only 12 games played). How many pass attempts did Sanchez have last season? 364. How many is he on pace for this season? 336. While the 500-pass attempt average is certainly not a prerequisite to Super Bowl participation, history indicates that you would rather be over 400 attempts than under. In short, you not only need to be able to throw the ball, but you actually need to throw a decent amount of the time!

It is important to note that when you do throw the football, you don't necessarily need to shatter any passing records. The above quarterbacks vary when it comes to touchdown-to-interception ratio and quarterback rating. As you can see, the numbers run the gamut:

Highest TD:INT ratio - Brady:  50 TD, 8 INT (2007)
Lowest TD:INT ratio - Roethlisberger:  17 TD, 15 INT (2008)

Highest QB rating - Brady:  117.2 (2007)
Lowest QB rating - Grossman and E. Manning:  73.9 (2006 and 2007, respectively)

By comparison, Sanchez threw 12 touchdowns to 20 interceptions last season and had a quarterback rating of 63.0. While those numbers aren't pretty, they aren't too far off from the low-end of the spectrum. But in order to improve on his statistics, Sanchez needs to have more opportunities to throw the football. Unfortunately, judging by what Rex Ryan and the coaching staff said all of last season and this offseason, the young up-and-comer won't get those chances. As a result, the Jets can kiss their lofty Super Bowl hopes goodbye.

Hard Knocks with the New York Jets, Episode 1 Review

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I just finished watching the season premiere of Hard Knocks featuring the New York Jets. For those of you who do not know, Hard Knocks is an HBO sports series that follows an NFL team during its training camp. Besides the obvious appeal of getting behind the scenes of an NFL team and its management, you need to watch this show because HBO does an incredible job of filming and producing everything. You feel like you're watching a movie, and it's amazing.

The first thing I noticed is Rex Ryan and his ridiculous charm. The guy has a personality rivaled by only the size of his gut. He is surprisingly vulgar, as well (he has since issued a public apology for this). In one scene, he goes around each player's dorm room and says good night. He walks into an empty room and says, "Revis? Revis where areeee yoouuu?" Him and his staff repeatedly make light of the Revis situation, which brings me to my next thought...

The show mentions the absent Darelle Revis a lot. Probably more than it should. The Revis contract-negotiation saga has been drawn out for quite awhile now. And I think the Jets, through this program, are bringing a lot of attention to it. Although I think it's an interesting topic (contracts in the NFL), I will save that discussion for a future post related to the collective bargaining agreement.

Finally, it's great to see Mark Sanchez growing into the leader that we got a glimpse of last season. It looks like he is really maturing under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, veteran Mark Brunell, and, occasionally, legend Joe Namath. It should be interesting to watch him as not only the show progresses, but as the season does, too.

All in all, the first episode was very entertaining. The Jets are one of my favorite teams in the league because of the Sanchez, coach Ryan, and the way they play football (smash mouth, defense). But most of all, I really enjoy the show production. I encourage you to watch at least one episode and see for yourself. The show is on every Wednesday at 10:00 p.m.

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• NYJ: Hardknocks Premier a Must See (bleacherreport.com)

Looking Forward to the 2010 NFL Season

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With all the coverage surrounding the annual Brett Favre retirement saga, the Albert Haynesworth conditioning test, Darrell Revis' holdout, and the Terrell Owens/Chad Ochocinco pairing in Cincy, I thought I would give a short list of the five things I am most looking forward to for the 2010 NFL season.

1A. The Pete Carroll Era in Seattle

As a lifelong Seahawks fan and a Trojan alum, this couldn't have been a better match. While I was sad to see Pete leave SC, I would rather him go to Seattle than anywhere else. His past stints in the NFL have been overvalued and I think the next couple of years will give us a more accurate picture of his coaching abilities at the professional level. He has full control of personnel, a great owner with money, a great fan base, in a great city. The team? Not so great. The Seahawks have veteran leadership at quarterback, a solid defense built around franchise-caliber players like Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu, and young talent like Russell Okung and Earl Thomas. I am not realistically expecting the playoffs in year one, although that would be awesome. But I am expecting signs of improvement.

1B. Fantasy Football

For obvious reasons.

2. New Places, Same Faces

A lot of marquee players shuffled around in the off-season, and I cannot wait to see which moves worked and which moves didn't. I am most excited to see Donovan McNabb in Washington. I have always been a huge McNabb fan, and I hope he gets the support he deserves while playing for the Redskins. Some other acquisitions that I am excited to see are Anquan Boldin in Baltimore, Julius Peppers in Chicago, Brandon Marshall in Miami, and yes, Terrell Owens in Cincinnati.

3. J-E-T-S

I am really excited for Year 2 of Mark Sanchez in New York. Last year the Jets had an amazing run to the AFC Championship game, and as challenging as that was, it may be even more challenging this season. The league always finds ways to adapt. Teams like the Patriots will be healthy again and gunning for the young Jets. Can Rex Ryan conjure up some more magic to inspire his team? Sanchez certainly hopes to improve off of his rookie campaign and all signs in camp point to a more composed, experienced quarterback and leader. They lost two very important pieces in their vaunted rushing attack in Leon Washington and Thomas Jones, so the burden will be on Shonn Greene and newly acquired veteran LaDainian Tomlinson. The defense also improves with the pickup of Antonio Cromartie to play opposite of Revis Island. But how will Revis and his holdout affect the team? Gotta love it all.

4. Rookies

It's always great to see the young kids out of college jump into the pros and find their footing. Sam Bradford should get the nod in St. Louis and we will see how his shoulder holds up, as well as his mental fortitude because the Rams will undoubtedly be a cellar dweller. I already mentioned the Seattle rookies. Then there's the men in the middle like Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Finally, I can't wait to see the playmakers like Eric Berry, C.J. Spiller, and Dez Bryant.

5. Adrian Peterson

He's my favorite player in all of football (inches ahead of Ed Reed). He's the best running back in the game. The most dynamic player on the offensive side of the ball. And he is sponsored by Muscle Milk. I can't wait to see my boy ALL DAY suit up and run over defenses. Oh yeah, and the opportunity to see Brett Favre try again to win the Super Bowl might be cool, too.