Blast from the Past: The Implications of Randy Moss' Return to Minnesota

In a matter of hours, rumors became stories became press releases, and just like that, the Randy Moss era in New England came to end. After experiencing just over three seasons of his pass-catching services and accompanying prima donna routine, the Patriots decided that enough is enough and traded the star wide receiver, along with a seventh-round draft pick in 2012, to the reeling Minnesota Vikings, in exchange for a third-round pick in next year's draft. While the off-the-field story lines of this transaction are intriguing, let's take a look at how the move impacts the two teams and their players on the field.

Vikings Offense

From an overall production standpoint, Moss' presence will only help the Vikings offense. Currently, the Vikings have excelled on the ground on the shoulders of star running back Adrian Peterson. Through the first four weeks of the season, Minnesota ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 143.3. But it's not like the Vikings aren't trying to throw the ball; quarterback Brett Favre attempted 27, 36, and 34 passes in the first three games. But the results have left something to be desired. Specifically, the Vikings simply cannot stretch the field. They currently rank 24th overall in passing yards per game at 185.0, and Favre averages a paltry 6.16 yards per pass attempt. Their inability to stretch the field is most evident by the fact that Favre's longest completion on the season thus far has been 33 yards, done twice. Moss' ability to catch passes downfield should help the Vikings increase their passing yards per game and help them approach last year's average of 259.8 yards per contest.

Brett Favre

The Moss acquisition immediately boosts Favre's stock on the field and in fantasy football. Favre has been incredibly disappointing so far this season; the aging quarterback has only thrown 2 touchdowns while tossing 6 interceptions. His failure to put up big passing numbers results directly from his lack of receiving options on the field; we all know about star wideout Sidney Rice's injury, but add to that Percy Harvin's health issues and you have a recipe for receiving disaster. As a result, Favre has had to rely extra on tight end Visanthe Shiacoe, who leads the team in receiving yards, and Peterson out of the backfield. Anytime a defense only has to focus on the tight end and running back, it makes the quarterback's job a lot tougher. Moss' ability to stretch the field, attract defenders, and make spectacular catches will immediately help Favre. For the sake of Vikings fans and Favre's fantasy owners, let's hope #4 gets back on track.

Adrian Peterson

Moss will help the VIkings run game by forcing their opponents to play more defensive backs and play less guys in the box. Like I said earlier, right now the only thing that the Vikings can do correctly on offense is run the football. Peterson is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has had back-to-back games with over 140 total rushing yards. It is safe to say that teams in the NFL usually make adjustments and probably would have--if not already--stacked the box against Peterson. However, adding Moss to the receiving corps establishes a deep threat, even as a decoy, and prevents defenses from cheating up on the run. This means that Peterson will see less traffic around the line of scrimmage, at least pre-snap.

Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe

Harvin will probably benefit the most of any Vikings player not named Favre. Because of Moss' skill and reputation, he warrants coverage by an opposing team's number one cornerback. This will allow Harvin to work on lesser corners. While Harvin is a deep threat like Moss, he is also a playmaker who is most effective when he has the ball in the open field. Because of this, the Vikings should utilize Harvin much like the Pats used Wes Welker when Welker and Moss shared the same field; that is, run Harvin on plenty of underneath routes, make him a possession receiver, and get him the ball quickly and in open space. Harvin will no longer have to line up wide and can now return to the slot where he is more comfortable.

As for Shiancoe, he is probably letting loose a huge sigh of relief because it is unbelievably taxing for a tight end to have the pressure of being an offense's number one receiving target. Moss' presence will give Shiancoe better matchups and also allow him to focus more of his energy on run and pass-blocking in the events that they ask him to do that.

Patriots Offense

Obviously, any time you lose someone of Moss' caliber, it hurts. The Patriots, at least at the current moment, don't look like they have a natural replacement for Moss (despite the Vincent Jackson rumors viciously swirling around the league). Welker clearly becomes the number one target in the passing game, which will not only burden him with pressure, but may also force him to change his game a bit. Other Patriots wide receivers, and their talented tight ends, will have to step up. You probably have not heard of any of them, but you can safely bet that one of them will become a household name by the end of this season; the candidates are tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and wide receivers Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, and Matthew Slater. So far this season it has been Hernandez who has surprised many with his performance (18 catches for 240 yards through four games). I don't expect the Pats to change their game plan much, but you'll probably see a nice number of two-tight end sets.

Tom Brady

I really hope this trade does not diminish Brady's fantasy value. The important thing to remember is that Brady and coach Brian Belichick have perfected a passing system that does not require a star receiver. Brady has been a star quarterback for the past decade, and here are his top receivers, by number of catches, for each of the seasons prior to Moss' arrival in New England:

2001:  Troy Brown, David Patten, Terry Glenn
2002:  Brown, Patten, Deion Branch
2003:  Branch, Givens, Brown
2004:  Givens, Patten, Branch
2005:  Branch, Givens, Brown
2006:  Reche Caldwell, Benjamin Watson, Brown

For the record, the above players have a combined two (2) Pro Bowl appearances. Not exactly a star-studded receiving cast. Yet, Brady is consistently one of the top passers in the game. The reason? Because Belichick knows how to use the talent that he has, in the system that he has created, to win games. And I expect no different in the post-Moss era.

Playoff Picture

For the Vikings, this move looked like one of desperation. They lost two consecutive tough games to start the season and then salvaged a victory against the Lions at home. At 1-2, they currently sit in third place in the division behind the trendy Super Bowl pick Green Bay Packers and the surprising Chicago Bears. Oh, and they have a brutal three games ahead playing the Jets on the road, Dallas at home, and the Packers at Lambeau. If they have any shot at a Wild Card spot, they need to win at least two of those games. And if an ailing Favre had no deep threat to throw to, that simply was not going to happen. Enter Randy Moss and things suddenly change. If the Favre, Moss, and the rest of the offense can work out their bugs and somehow come away with a victory against the Jets, then I suddenly like the Vikings playoff chances a lot more than I previously did. The team's defense will keep them around this season, so it will be on the offense to hold up its end of the bargain.

For the Patriots, barring a V-Jack acquisition, this is probably the equivalent of waving a white flag. Although they are off to a nice 3-1 start, I highly doubt they can wrestle the division away from the Jets, even if they had Moss for the rest of the season. Miami, despite getting hammered by the Pats, will remain a player all season long. And with the AFC being so deep this season, I don't think the Pats can legitimately grab a Wild Card spot. By trading Moss, the Pats have now secured themselves two picks in each of the four rounds of next season's NFL Draft. Choose wisely, boys, because you have a lot of rebuilding to do.

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Postgame Breakdown: Vikings at Saints, NFL 2010 Season Opener

Bringing the House illustration.

I do not remember anticipating an NFL season opener more than this one. My fantasy football league held its draft pretty early by fantasy standards, I devoured every episode of HBO's Hard Knocks with the New York Jets, and the offseason moves (trades, signings, holdouts, etc.) kept the NFL on my daily radar. Simply put, I was hungry for some pro football. Don't get me wrong, I love college football. But if I were forced to choose one level of one sport to watch for the rest of my life, I would pick professional football without hesitation. And when the league combined all of the offseason buildup with an enticing Vikings-Saints matchup tonight, I could barely hold in my excitement. Let's dive straight into the action.

The NFL did not even wait until kickoff to star the intrigue. Pop/country singer Colbie Caillat began the night by singing her rendition of the Stars and Stripes. While her remix was not a complete disaster, I can't say that I loved it. I admire her courage and originality, but it was kind of a weird way to kick off the season. It made for an awkward sing-a-long between Caillat and the Superdome fans. And after the national anthem, the camera got a shot of both teams' players holding up the number one, which, according to Al Michaels, symbolized the unity of the NFL Players Association as it approaches the negotiations of a new collective bargaining agreement with owners next summer. Translation:  the NFL players want their cut of the pie, and if they do not get it, we may not have NFL football next season. Ugh. Anyway, on to the action…

First Quarter

The Saints opened the game the same way they finished last season:  on fire. Brees came out in shotgun formation and rifled a ball to Marques Colston for 27 yards over the middle. He then came back with a play-action pass for 11 yards to Lance Moore. After a Reggie Bush 8-yard scamper, Brees hit Devery Henderson on a 29-yard out-and-up for the first touchdown of the game. It looked way too easy. It looked exactly like the Super Bowl Saints of last season. At this moment I felt sorry for every secondary that would face Brees and company moving forward.

People had many questions heading into the Vikings' first drive. How would Favre and his ankle perform? Would Adrian Peterson be able to hold onto the football? How would the receiving corps look without Sidney Rice? Who would fill in for the departed jack-of-all-trades Chester Taylor? Well, we didn't learn much after one drive. Coach Brad Childress drew up three straight run plays and the Vikings were forced to punt. Way to start with a bang! At this point I thought that, despite Peterson and his greatness, the Vikings would need to throw the ball to keep up with the Saints.

Neither team put up points during the remainder of the first quarter, but I saw a couple noteworthy things. First, Peterson looked pretty good. The Vikings star ran the ball hard, broke a number of tackles, and most importantly, held onto the football. His combination of speed, strength, and vision is unparalleled in football. He's coming off a very frustrating performance in the NFC Championship Game and people have crowned Tennessee's Chris Johnson as the game's best rusher. I think those two factors will motivate Peterson and result in a huge season.

Second, Bush looked extra determined in the quarter. We all know the offseason drama that followed the guy. But nobody knew how he would respond. The Saints did not run the ball much during the quarter (or the half, for that matter), but whenever Bush got the ball in space he was able to create something positive. In one instance, Bush caught a short dump pass from Brees and juked Ray Edwards on the way to a big 19-yard gain. At this point he will never be the dangerous between the tackles runner some people want him to be, and perhaps he won't even be the best scat back in the entire league, but he is a useful playmaker to have on the field and a good fit for the Saints' offense.

Second Quarter

Favre got into a small groove by throwing short passes and feeding off Peterson's strong running. The Vikings squeezed a field goal out of a long drive. The defenses really buckled down during the second quarter, but the old gunslinger was able to help the VIkings take the lead going into halftime by throwing two beautiful passes to tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. The first pass was a soft bullet (if that's possible) over the Saints defense that creeped up to fake blitz. And the very next play was a high bullet where only Shiancoe could climb to get it.

Midway through the quarter Favre threw the first interception, and turnover, of the ball game. It came at the hands of intense pressure by the Saints defense. Go figure. During the pregame show, Rodney Harrison was telling Tony Dungy that the Saints planned on trying to intimidate Brett Favre tonight. The Saints, like they did in last season's NFC Championship Game, would throw all sorts of blitzes at the aging veteran and even throw some cheap shots. Dungy countered saying that Favre does not get intimidated by anything or anyone. Well from what I saw on Favre's interception, Dungy was wrong. The pocket completely collapsed under the pressure and Favre saw a Saints player dead-set on leveling him. As the player closed in on the sack, Favre looked left and right and saw nothing. It looked like he panicked and tried to dump the ball off to his check down receiver, who was completely draped in coverage by Jonathan Vilma, who easily intercepted the pass. Favre tried everything he could to avoid taking the huge hit (at his age, do you blame him?). His mind might not get intimidated, but his body sure does.

Third Quarter

Another strong defensive quarter for both squads. However, the Saints retook the lead on a 1-yard run by Pierre Thomas. I noticed a couple of interesting things during the third quarter. First, Brees' hard counts really tripped up the Vikings defense. Earlier in the contest Brees was actually called for a false start on one of his hard counts. But he seemed to correct whatever it was that tipped off the referees and abused the Vikings pass rush with his fake snaps. The effectiveness of using hard counts against dangerous pass rushing teams really manifested itself on the Saints' scoring drive.

Second, Favre did not complete a pass in the third quarter. Not a great way to start my fantasy season.

Finally, I cannot think of a better color commentator than Cris Collinsworth. When I turn on a sports game, I want the guys in the booth to provide me with two things. First, give me the play-by-play exactly as it happens/appears. If Brees fakes a hand-off to Bush, rolls to his right, and completes a 12-yard pass to Colston, who catches the ball cleanly and taps both feet in-bounds, then tell me, "Brees fakes the hand-off to Bush, he rolls to his right, fires a pass to the sideline to Colston who makes the catch! What a catch by Colston, who kept his eyes on the ball and tapped both feet in-bounds before falling out of bounds!" And then I want analysis. I want a breakdown of what just happened. I don't want someone to state the obvious (*COUGH* Madden). I want someone to do what Collinsworth did tonight and always does.

For example, on one particular play, the on-field microphone picked up Brees yelling "KILL KILL KILL KILL" to audible into a new play. Brees then snapped the ball and calmly whipped a swing pass to Pierre Thomas for a first down. NBC immediately followed with a replay and Collinsworth explained that the Saints initially called two plays in the huddle. The first play was the one they intended to use. However, Brees had full discretion to audible out of the play--to "kill" the play--and switch to the second of the two plays if he thought it would work better against the defense that he saw. Brees did exactly that and the Saints marched on to another score. Collinsworth provided insight that even diehard NFL fans could not have known. And he provided the breakdown on the spot. Not Monday morning. Awesome.

Fourth Quarter

I missed a bit of the action because I had my face buried in my oven-baked ribs. But I did not miss much. Favre continued his inconsistent play and the Vikings, as a result, never made any strong threat to score. As a Favre fantasy owner, it was kind of painful. But I understand that the guy just got off the couch and put his cleats on, so a slow start had to be expected. The low scoring affair had me incessantly worried about whether the Saints would score once more to cover the spread. Perhaps this is how gambling addicts feel. It definitely adds a new element to the game and a reason to watch it until completion (beyond the actual football).

With 1:49 left in the game, the Saints had a new set of downs and the ball at the Vikings' 40. They decided to kneel the clock out. And I heard the groans across casinos and bars everywhere. Including in my own living room.

Final Breakdown

The final score was a lot lower than I thought it would be, but I was not completely shocked because we don't know what to expect in a season opener. The Saints dominated the Vikings through the air, outgunning them 229 yards (no interceptions) to 162 yards (one interception). The Vikings had a better rushing attack, but barely. Peterson gained 87 yards on 19 carries, but it was not a dominant performance by any stretch of the imagination. The Vikings also hurt themselves with six penalties for a loss of 60 yards. Brees, per usual, completed a pass to nine different receivers. And Favre never really got into a groove. Ultimately, the game showed flashes of the intense matchup the media hyped it up to be. However, the rust won out and we got a disappointing season opener from an entertainment standpoint.

Life After Favre: Looking Ahead to Minnesota's Painful Transition

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Consistent, prolonged success in the NFL relies heavily on the ability of a front office to manage its player personnel.  Management can replenish its talent pool through the annual draft, purchase players via free agency, or barter with other teams in hopes of filling its own holes.  Regardless of the method, one thing is clear:  chance plays a big role in both immediate and future success or failure.  That being said, a strong organization knows how to increase its chances of success through a combination of strategic planning and due diligence.

Strategic planning is most apparent at the NFL Draft.  During each offseason, the months leading up to the NFL Draft are filled ad nauseum with scouting reports and highlight videos. Teams spend countless hours formulating a  "big board" of players they plan to draft.  Who they decide to draft depends on a mix of need and overall talent. 

Drafting for need can be tricky because needs are not always easily identifiable.  Players get injured, players hold out, and players underachieve.  At times, a need is not apparent until its too late.  But sometimes needs can be foreseen, and when they are, management cannot miss or bypass the opportunity to preempt that future need.  If they do, a disaster looms.  Case in point:  the Minnesota Vikings in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Going into this past draft, consensus was that the Vikes needed to get younger at cornerback and offensive line, both positions in the team's defense filled by aging veterans.  While I don't dispute those needs, I truly believe that the Vikes needed a future, franchise quarterback even more.  Quarterback is the most important position in sports.  Although Favre's comeback momentarily shoves the issue to the back burner for this season, the Vikings will undoubtedly need a new field general soon (as in, next season, because Favre "says" this is his last year). Prior to the draft, what were the team's options? Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.

Jackson has shared the quarterback role in Minnesota for several years now. He had one season in which he had the job outright (2008) and took the team to the Wild Card round of the playoffs (loss). But can you really depend on Jackson to win consistently? Not in my mind. Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback who poses a significantly higher threat with his feet. But this is a throwing league. At the end of the day, your quarterback has to make plays in the air.  To prove my point, let's look at the quarterbacks of the past five Super Bowls.

2009:  Ben Roethilisberger; Kurt Warner
2008:  Tom Brady; Eli Manning
2007:  Peyton Manning; Rex Grossman
2006:  Ben Roethlisberger; Matt Hasselbeck
2005:  Tom Brady; Donovan McNabb

With the exception of Grossman in 2007, each quarterback on the above list is a franchise quarterback who can gun the football.  Sure, it helps to have a ridiculous defense (Grossman had the 2007 version of the Monsters of the Midway) and an MVP-winning running back (Hasselbeck had Shaun Alexander who set a then-record for most rushing touchdowns in a season), but the cornerstone of any title contender, especially a consistent contender, is a legit quarterback under center.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Tarvaris Jackson does not fit the mold.  As for Rosenfels? The guy is old enough to be my grandpa.  While he can provide a moderate level of mentorship to a young up and comer, the Vikings aren't in the business of career advising.  They want to win football games, and if your arm can't help them do that, then you aren't starting at quarterback.

What should the Vikings have done? They should have drafted Jimmy Clausen, the emu look-a-like from Notre Dame! People may doubt the guy's leadership, but nobody argues that he has all the talent necessary to be a franchise quarterback. And isn't that what the Vikings, or any team for that matter, want? Especially on the heels of an aging legend. Sounds like a great chance to pass the torch. And keep in mind now that the Vikings window of opportunity is shrinking. They have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, but Peterson takes an insane amount of damage to his body each season. He probably only has another six seasons in him, with three of those being at top notch. You simply can't waste the prime of a dominant player by failing to provide him with the support needed to win in the league. And I'm afraid the Vikings have done just that.

To be fair, the team did draft a quarterback in the sixth round--Joe Webb out of UAB.   But Webb is a dual threat quarterback just like Tarvaris Jackson.  And although he comes out of a smaller school, his upside is not in Joe Flacco territory. Besides, the chances of him outperforming Clausen by the end of their two careers is slim. They should have drafted Clausen in the 2nd round to prepare for life after Favre. Instead, the team's strategic failure will cost them years of potential success (barring a huge free agent acquisition) and the prime of Peterson's career.  Now you might ask:  How easy is it to plan/foresee such a transition? Have teams successfully done this in the past? Well, yes. Some successfully and some unsuccessfully.  But the bottom line is that planning for the transition gives you a better chance at success, and increasing those odds is the best you can do in such a high risk game. The following are some efforts made by other teams in the past that the Vikings should have modeled their plans after.

• In 2000, the New England Patriots drafted Tom Brady from Michigan in the sixth round in hopes of making him the successor to Super Bowl winner Drew Bledsoe.  The team was forced to call on Brady earlier than expected after Bledsoe was injured early in the 2001 season.  But Brady had learned plenty from Bledsoe in the one year as a backup.  He is no doubt a future Hall of Famer and arguably the best quarterback of the decade.

• In 2005, the Green Bay Packers selected Aaron Rodgers out of Cal to eventually supplant Favre from the helm in Wisconsin.  Rodgers spent three full seasons under Favre's guidance, and this move has paid dividends for Green Bay.  Since becoming the full-time starter two seasons ago, Rodgers has averaged over 4,200 yards per season, earned Pro Bowl honors, and led the team to a playoff berth.  He is now recognized as a franchise quarterback (not to mention a fantasy football monster).

• In 2006, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart from USC with the 10th overall pick.  Leinart spent four full seasons under the tutelage of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  Although the verdict is still out on Leinart's career, you can't fault the Cards for trying.

As you can see, teams have made draft picks to successfully transition from a Super Bowl-winning veteran to a young up and comer.  While the strategy does not always pan out, the exceptions suggest that the potential warrants the risk.