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Consistent, prolonged success in the NFL relies heavily on the ability of a front office to manage its player personnel. Management can replenish its talent pool through the annual draft, purchase players via free agency, or barter with other teams in hopes of filling its own holes. Regardless of the method, one thing is clear: chance plays a big role in both immediate and future success or failure. That being said, a strong organization knows how to increase its chances of success through a combination of strategic planning and due diligence.
Strategic planning is most apparent at the NFL Draft. During each offseason, the months leading up to the NFL Draft are filled ad nauseum with scouting reports and highlight videos. Teams spend countless hours formulating a "big board" of players they plan to draft. Who they decide to draft depends on a mix of need and overall talent.
Going into this past draft, consensus was that the Vikes needed to get younger at cornerback and offensive line, both positions in the team's defense filled by aging veterans. While I don't dispute those needs, I truly believe that the Vikes needed a future, franchise quarterback even more. Quarterback is the most important position in sports. Although Favre's comeback momentarily shoves the issue to the back burner for this season, the Vikings will undoubtedly need a new field general soon (as in, next season, because Favre "says" this is his last year). Prior to the draft, what were the team's options? Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.
Jackson has shared the quarterback role in Minnesota for several years now. He had one season in which he had the job outright (2008) and took the team to the Wild Card round of the playoffs (loss). But can you really depend on Jackson to win consistently? Not in my mind. Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback who poses a significantly higher threat with his feet. But this is a throwing league. At the end of the day, your quarterback has to make plays in the air. To prove my point, let's look at the quarterbacks of the past five Super Bowls.
2009: Ben Roethilisberger; Kurt Warner
2008: Tom Brady; Eli Manning
2007: Peyton Manning; Rex Grossman
2006: Ben Roethlisberger; Matt Hasselbeck
2005: Tom Brady; Donovan McNabb
With the exception of Grossman in 2007, each quarterback on the above list is a franchise quarterback who can gun the football. Sure, it helps to have a ridiculous defense (Grossman had the 2007 version of the Monsters of the Midway) and an MVP-winning running back (Hasselbeck had Shaun Alexander who set a then-record for most rushing touchdowns in a season), but the cornerstone of any title contender, especially a consistent contender, is a legit quarterback under center. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Tarvaris Jackson does not fit the mold. As for Rosenfels? The guy is old enough to be my grandpa. While he can provide a moderate level of mentorship to a young up and comer, the Vikings aren't in the business of career advising. They want to win football games, and if your arm can't help them do that, then you aren't starting at quarterback.
What should the Vikings have done? They should have drafted Jimmy Clausen, the emu look-a-like from Notre Dame! People may doubt the guy's leadership, but nobody argues that he has all the talent necessary to be a franchise quarterback. And isn't that what the Vikings, or any team for that matter, want? Especially on the heels of an aging legend. Sounds like a great chance to pass the torch. And keep in mind now that the Vikings window of opportunity is shrinking. They have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, but Peterson takes an insane amount of damage to his body each season. He probably only has another six seasons in him, with three of those being at top notch. You simply can't waste the prime of a dominant player by failing to provide him with the support needed to win in the league. And I'm afraid the Vikings have done just that.
To be fair, the team did draft a quarterback in the sixth round--Joe Webb out of UAB. But Webb is a dual threat quarterback just like Tarvaris Jackson. And although he comes out of a smaller school, his upside is not in Joe Flacco territory. Besides, the chances of him outperforming Clausen by the end of their two careers is slim. They should have drafted Clausen in the 2nd round to prepare for life after Favre. Instead, the team's strategic failure will cost them years of potential success (barring a huge free agent acquisition) and the prime of Peterson's career. Now you might ask: How easy is it to plan/foresee such a transition? Have teams successfully done this in the past? Well, yes. Some successfully and some unsuccessfully. But the bottom line is that planning for the transition gives you a better chance at success, and increasing those odds is the best you can do in such a high risk game. The following are some efforts made by other teams in the past that the Vikings should have modeled their plans after.
Strategic planning is most apparent at the NFL Draft. During each offseason, the months leading up to the NFL Draft are filled ad nauseum with scouting reports and highlight videos. Teams spend countless hours formulating a "big board" of players they plan to draft. Who they decide to draft depends on a mix of need and overall talent.
Drafting for need can be tricky because needs are not always easily identifiable. Players get injured, players hold out, and players underachieve. At times, a need is not apparent until its too late. But sometimes needs can be foreseen, and when they are, management cannot miss or bypass the opportunity to preempt that future need. If they do, a disaster looms. Case in point: the Minnesota Vikings in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Going into this past draft, consensus was that the Vikes needed to get younger at cornerback and offensive line, both positions in the team's defense filled by aging veterans. While I don't dispute those needs, I truly believe that the Vikes needed a future, franchise quarterback even more. Quarterback is the most important position in sports. Although Favre's comeback momentarily shoves the issue to the back burner for this season, the Vikings will undoubtedly need a new field general soon (as in, next season, because Favre "says" this is his last year). Prior to the draft, what were the team's options? Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.
Jackson has shared the quarterback role in Minnesota for several years now. He had one season in which he had the job outright (2008) and took the team to the Wild Card round of the playoffs (loss). But can you really depend on Jackson to win consistently? Not in my mind. Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback who poses a significantly higher threat with his feet. But this is a throwing league. At the end of the day, your quarterback has to make plays in the air. To prove my point, let's look at the quarterbacks of the past five Super Bowls.
2009: Ben Roethilisberger; Kurt Warner
2008: Tom Brady; Eli Manning
2007: Peyton Manning; Rex Grossman
2006: Ben Roethlisberger; Matt Hasselbeck
2005: Tom Brady; Donovan McNabb
With the exception of Grossman in 2007, each quarterback on the above list is a franchise quarterback who can gun the football. Sure, it helps to have a ridiculous defense (Grossman had the 2007 version of the Monsters of the Midway) and an MVP-winning running back (Hasselbeck had Shaun Alexander who set a then-record for most rushing touchdowns in a season), but the cornerstone of any title contender, especially a consistent contender, is a legit quarterback under center. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Tarvaris Jackson does not fit the mold. As for Rosenfels? The guy is old enough to be my grandpa. While he can provide a moderate level of mentorship to a young up and comer, the Vikings aren't in the business of career advising. They want to win football games, and if your arm can't help them do that, then you aren't starting at quarterback.
What should the Vikings have done? They should have drafted Jimmy Clausen, the emu look-a-like from Notre Dame! People may doubt the guy's leadership, but nobody argues that he has all the talent necessary to be a franchise quarterback. And isn't that what the Vikings, or any team for that matter, want? Especially on the heels of an aging legend. Sounds like a great chance to pass the torch. And keep in mind now that the Vikings window of opportunity is shrinking. They have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, but Peterson takes an insane amount of damage to his body each season. He probably only has another six seasons in him, with three of those being at top notch. You simply can't waste the prime of a dominant player by failing to provide him with the support needed to win in the league. And I'm afraid the Vikings have done just that.
To be fair, the team did draft a quarterback in the sixth round--Joe Webb out of UAB. But Webb is a dual threat quarterback just like Tarvaris Jackson. And although he comes out of a smaller school, his upside is not in Joe Flacco territory. Besides, the chances of him outperforming Clausen by the end of their two careers is slim. They should have drafted Clausen in the 2nd round to prepare for life after Favre. Instead, the team's strategic failure will cost them years of potential success (barring a huge free agent acquisition) and the prime of Peterson's career. Now you might ask: How easy is it to plan/foresee such a transition? Have teams successfully done this in the past? Well, yes. Some successfully and some unsuccessfully. But the bottom line is that planning for the transition gives you a better chance at success, and increasing those odds is the best you can do in such a high risk game. The following are some efforts made by other teams in the past that the Vikings should have modeled their plans after.
- In 2000, the New England Patriots drafted Tom Brady from Michigan in the sixth round in hopes of making him the successor to Super Bowl winner Drew Bledsoe. The team was forced to call on Brady earlier than expected after Bledsoe was injured early in the 2001 season. But Brady had learned plenty from Bledsoe in the one year as a backup. He is no doubt a future Hall of Famer and arguably the best quarterback of the decade.
- In 2005, the Green Bay Packers selected Aaron Rodgers out of Cal to eventually supplant Favre from the helm in Wisconsin. Rodgers spent three full seasons under Favre's guidance, and this move has paid dividends for Green Bay. Since becoming the full-time starter two seasons ago, Rodgers has averaged over 4,200 yards per season, earned Pro Bowl honors, and led the team to a playoff berth. He is now recognized as a franchise quarterback (not to mention a fantasy football monster).
- In 2006, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart from USC with the 10th overall pick. Leinart spent four full seasons under the tutelage of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. Although the verdict is still out on Leinart's career, you can't fault the Cards for trying.
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