NFL 2010 Pyramid Rankings: Third Quarter

Bringing the House illustration

With twelve weeks of football in the books, it is time for another round of the Bringing the House Pyramid Rankings. In a season filled with parity and surprises, we finally have a somewhat clear picture of where teams lie in relation to one another. While no one team has set itself apart from the rest, a group of six have clearly established that they have what it takes to win the Super Bowl. See where your team sits on the pyramid and let the debate begin!

 

Tier 7:  Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

32. Carolina Panthers (1-10)

The most anemic team in the league has only two legitimate chances to win another game:  this Sunday at Seattle and in Week 15 at home against Arizona. I doubt they win either contest, but as they say, "any given Sunday."

31. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)

After a year or two of life as a contender, the Bengals have regressed back to their days as the laughing stock of the NFL. The best days of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are behind them; Palmer has gradually declined each season since the 2005-2006 campaign, and Ochocinco has recorded more than 60 yards receiving in only three of his eleven games this season. Did anyone predict that T.O. would have a better season than Ochocinco? Did anyone predict that Ochocinco would have more tweets than yards at this point in the year?

30. Detroit Lions (2-9)

If I were running the Lions, I would shut Matthew Stafford down for the year and focus on next season. The Lions have a lot to look forward to in the future, as the performance of Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, and Stafford this season provided Detroit brass with some reassurance that they drafted wisely. Why risk Stafford's health for some pointless end-of-the-year games?

29. Arizona Cardinals (3-8)

By now, everyone has seen/heard Derek Anderson's ridiculous meltdown in front of the media after Monday night's embarrassing loss to the 49ers. Clearly, the Cardinals do not have adequate leadership to even resemble a stable NFL team. The team has lost six games in a row and looks as though they have thrown in the towel on the season. The saddest part of all of this may be the fact that Larry Fitzgerald's all-world talent is being wasted in its prime--regardless of who takes the snaps, the quarterback can't seem to get Fitzgerald the football (only 59 receptions so far this season).

28. Denver Broncos (3-8)

At this point, the Broncos are simply stat mongers; Kyle Orton continues his march at 3,000 passing yards and Brandon Lloyd continues to have a career season.

Tier 6:  Still Competitive

27. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)

America's Team seems to have its mojo back after the firing of Wade Phillips. But Roy Williams' fumble on Dallas' final drive versus the Saints was the perfect way to sum up an incredibly disappointing season.

26. Buffalo Bills (2-9)

After losing eight games in a row to start the season, the Bills rattled off back-to-back victories over the Lions and Bengals. If you remember my second quarter rankings, I predicted that the Bills would win two in a row, although I had said those wins would be against the Bears and Lions, not Lions and Bengals. The Bills had a third straight victory on its way against the Steelers until Steve Johnson made his infamous drop in the end zone during overtime. If you didn't know about Johnson until his recent gaffe, believe me, this guy is the real deal. He is a true deep threat that has given the fans in Buffalo something to cheer alongside Harvard grad and starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tier 5:  Too Little, Too Late

25. Minnesota Vikings (4-7)

Call me a visionary or consider me lucky, but I predicted before the season started that the Vikings would not make the playoffs. At 4-7, in a highly competitive division, you can officially lock it in. The Vikings just can't seem to find any consistency, and in a year filled with so much parity, consistency is key. On a side note, in their win agains the Redskins, Favre threw neither a touchdown nor an interception, marking the first time since 2006 that he recorded a similar stat line in a game.

24. Cleveland Browns (4-7)

Has there been a more intriguing team than the Browns this year? Not only did nobody expect them to jump the Bengals in the AFC North, but the Browns have arguably the most impressive two-game sweep of any team this season--a 30-17 win over the Saints at the Superdome followed by a 34-14 demolition of the Patriots. The following week, the Browns fell just short of a ridiculous trifecta, losing to the Jets in overtime. Perhaps even more important than their current success is the positive outlook that the organization has for the future; quarterback Colt McCoy looks like the real deal and running back Peyton Hillis has emerged as an elite running back who will straight up steamroll defenders in his path.

23. San Francisco 49ers (4-7)

Having won three of their last four games and playing in a historically terrible division, the 49ers still have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the playoffs. I don't think they will do it, though. They have three tough road games remaining (at Green Bay, San Diego, and St. Louis). In the end, their 1-6 start will be too much to overcome.

22. Tennessee Titans (5-6)

Has any team gone from contender to failure as quickly as the Titans? Probably not (the Cowboys were never a contender during the season, only before the season began). After seven weeks of football, Tennessee was 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Then they lost four in a row, with their most recent defeat a 20-0 effort, or lack thereof, against the Texans. We all know about the Vince Young saga. Randy Moss, in three games with the team, has caught a whopping four passes for 49 yards and zero touchdowns. And their top cornerback looks like he is more interested in mixed martial arts than football. This train is headed for a huge wreck as the season creeps closer to the end.

21. Oakland Raiders (5-6)

Just two weeks ago, the Silver & Black was a trendy pick to win the AFC West. They had rattled off three straight wins, including two blowouts. Since then, however, they have dropped two games in a row, both in ugly fashion. In those two losses, star running back Darren McFadden, or Run-DMC, totaled 18 carries for 16 yards and no touchdowns (which brutally hurt my fantasy team).

20. Washington Redskins (5-6)

While the Skins looked as though they were going to be a dangerous team this season, it is now clear that their season will not include the playoffs. The 59-28 blowout loss to the Eagles, which was pretty much the Mike Vick Show, put the nail in the coffin.

Tier 4:  Spoilers

19. Houston Texans (5-6)

The Texans, another trendy pick to the make playoffs, completely fell off the earth after their bye week. In the month of November, the Texans went 0-4, giving up an average of 30 points in each game.

Update (12/2/10):  The Texans just lost to the Eagles 34-24, which marks another game in which Houston gave up 30+ points to their opponent. While I am tempted to drop the Texans even lower, I will wait simply because it would not be fair to punish them for a loss while all other teams have to wait until Sunday.

18. Miami Dolphins (6-5)

Injuries have really killed this team's chances at the playoffs. When healthy, they are a strong, balanced team stuck in a brutal division. While their offense, with weapons like Brandon Marshall and the emergent Davone Bess, gets all the publicity, their defense has been incredible; the Dolphins are 4th in opponent's passing yards per game (201.4) and 14th in opponent's rushing yards per game (103.9).

17. Seattle Seahawks (5-6)

Like the 49ers, the Seahawks can sniff the playoffs only because they play in the NFC West. Ultimately, I think they fall short for two reasons. First, they don't play defense (30th in opponent's passing yards per game and 22nd in opponent's rushing yards per game). Second, their home field mystique has been shattered twice in recent weeks (41-7 loss to the Giants, 42-24 loss to the Chiefs), and I think that will severely affect the team's confidence going forward.

16. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

You want to see a team whose mojo has completely disappeared? Look at the Colts. The third quarter of the season did not treat them well. Not only did they lose to their top rival New England Patriots, but they were embarrassed on their home turf against a resurgent Chargers team that seems to thrive against Manning. The 36-14 defeat was so bad that Indy fans booed the team off the field. I never thought I would have seen that. The Colts will miss the playoffs this season for the first time since…gee, I don't even know.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)

Except for Mike Thomas' miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans in Week 10, the Jags have pretty much flown under the radar all season long. They are not very flashy, but they are still dangerous and find ways to get the job done, mainly behind the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. While I don't think the Jags will make the playoffs, they have a good chance at finishing the season with an impressive 11-5 record if they can run the table against some middle of the road opponents.

Tier 3:  On the Bubble

14. St. Louis Rams (5-6)

The Rams are my pick to win the NFC West and make the playoffs. And I think they will finish 8-8 on the season. This team has so much to look forward to with Sam Bradford. As a Seahawks fan, I dread the upcoming decade.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

The Bucs are probably the biggest surprise team of the year, and the emergence of Josh Freeman and wide receiver Mike Williams has been nothing short of magnificent. Unfortunately, the Bucs play in the best division in the NFC and, as a result, may miss out on the playoffs.

12. New York Giants (7-4)

After their bye week, everyone had proclaimed the Giants as the best team in the NFC, and some even the best team in the NFL. Well, the third quarter of the season proved that the midseason point is a bit too early to crown a champion, at least this season. The Giants were shocked, at home, against the Cowboys and then had a front row seat to the Mike Vick Show the following week. While the Giants are a good football team, I am beginning to doubt whether they will even make the playoffs this season.

11. San Diego Chargers (6-5)

The Bolts are the hottest team in the league and it looks as though they have hit the stride that will propel them into the playoffs. Philip Rivers continues to strengthen his MVP bid each week and his supporting cast is slowly getting healthy. The AFC West race will go down to the wire, but I think the Chargers will come out on top.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Matt Cassel is quietly having an MVP-caliber season. Cassel has completed 60.4% of his passes, thrown for 2307 yards, and recorded a mind-boggling 22-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His current quarterback rating of 99.7 is fourth in the NFL behind only Mike Vick, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers, all players in the MVP discussion. Perhaps football fans can finally put to rest the thought that Cassel had one fluke year in New England under Belichick's system; he looks like the real deal, regardless of where he plays.

Tier 2:  Sniffing the Super Bowl

9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)

Philly looked unstoppable until they flew into Chicago and got outplayed in the first three quarters against the Bears. In that game, Vick threw his first interception since 2006, albeit on a tipped pass. But Eagles fans should not worry too much because every team delivers a dud every now and then. I expect the Eagles to be standing strong at the end of the season.

Update (12/2/10):  The Eagles just defeated the Texans 34-24. While the win is impressive, I cannot move Philadelphia up in the rankings simply because they notched another victory while other teams remain stagnant until Sunday.

8. Green Bay Packers (7-4)

I still love the Packers because they have a potent passing attack and a vicious defense. Despite a 7-4 record, the Pack has yet to hit full stride. When they do, they will be nearly unbeatable. Having said that, the Packers' four losses have each been by one field goal. How can you not take that into consideration when evaluating their whole body of work? When they win, they win big. And when they lose, they lose close games. Sounds like a dangerous team to me.

7. Chicago Bears (8-3)

All season long, I have said that the Bears are a fraud. But it is tough to look past an 8-3 record and four consecutive victories, the most recent of which was an impressive 31-26 win over the red hot Eagles. I still do not trust Jay Cutler in crucial situations; I still think the Bears lack a ground game; and I still wonder how those receivers are getting the job done. That being said, I have to give them credit for sitting atop the NFC North three-quarters of the way through the season. I do predict, however, that the Packers will overtake them for first place in the division when it's all said and done.

Tier 1:  Super Bowl or Bust

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

While the Steelers were lucky to beat Buffalo and were embarrassed at Heinz Field by the Patriots, I still believe they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. The key for the Steelers will be getting Big Ben healthy for the big games; Roethlisberger looked as though he had finally gotten his timing back before he injured his ankle against the Bills. The team doctors are currently working on a special cleat for Big Ben, which would allow him to play in this Sunday's huge showdown against the Ravens. I have heard whispers that the Steelers need to win this game so that they can win the division and get a game at Heinz Field in the playoffs. But frankly, home field advantage is not too important for the Steelers. Although it would be great to be at home, they have proven that they can win on the road this season; they are 5-1 this year away from Pittsburgh. The reason why? Because their tenacious defense and bruising running game travel like no others in the league.

On a side note, the NFL's campaign against James Harrison continued this week as the league levied another $25K fine against the hard-hitting linebacker for his hit on Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Harrison's fine total is now at $125,000 on the season. While I think the emphasis on eliminating helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless players is great, Harrison's hit on Fitzpatrick looked perfectly legal to me. That is exactly how we teach kids to hit, isn't it? "Put your hat to his chest." Puzzling.

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

The Ravens are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL. If they can secure some sort of home field advantage, at least for one round, they have a chance to make it deep into the playoffs. One thing that puzzles me about the Ravens is why Anquan Boldin has not been featured more. In the past four weeks, Boldin has caught 2, 5, 3, and 3 passes. Furthermore, he has not gone over 50 yards once in that time and has only one touchdown. Sure, the Ravens have plenty of other weapons on offense, but you'd like to see your big offseason acquisition play big.

Finally, as good as the Ravens appear, it seems like they will fall short against the great teams. Two of their three losses come against the top two teams in the Bringing the House pyramid (Patriots and Falcons). And while they have victories over the Jets and Steelers, both victories were by a slim margin and occurred earlier in the year before each opponent had discovered its true identity. The Ravens will be tested this Sunday night against the Steelers and then in Week 15 against the Saints. Fortunately, both games are in Baltimore.

4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)

Who Dat looks like they are regaining their championship form just in time for the home stretch. They have won their past four games, including an impressive 20-10 victory over Pittsburgh. While Drew Brees' performance this season has not been up to expectations, he has improved as of late and will probably carry that momentum to the finish line. Most notably, Brees led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game against Dallas, which may have given him and his team their mojo back. The Saints are in an entertaining division race with the Falcons, and it looks like the two teams will battle until the final week for that top spot. Week 16 at Atlanta will be pivotal.

Despite Brees' struggles this year, the Saints have remained a player largely because of their defense. They currently rank 3rd in passing yards against (197.8 per game) and 15th in rushing yards against per game (108.9).

Most importantly, the Saints, who have been hampered with injuries all season, are finally getting healthy. Starting safety Darren Sharper is participating fully in practice this week, and tight end Jeremy Shockey is right there with him. Running back Pierre Thomas has seen limited action, but is making progress, as well. The Saints don't need these guys back now, but they will need them back eventually if they want to defend their title.

3. New York Jets (9-2)

The Jets' two losses were very, very ugly. They opened the season with a 10-9 loss to Baltimore and then in Week 8 got shutout by Green Bay 9-0. After each loss, everyone, including myself, panicked and said that Mark Sanchez and the offense was not good enough to carry the team to the title. Well, the Jets offense put all that criticism to rest by delivering a November to remember, putting up 23, 26, 30, and 26 points in four games. The key? The return, literally and figuratively, of Santonio Holmes, who has already made a number of big catches. Holmes has given Sanchez yet another weapon on the periphery.

The Jets are currently in a dogfight with the Patriots for first in the AFC East and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Monday night's head-to-head matchup will be huge in determining the fate of both clubs. But after that, both teams have very similar roads ahead; they both play the Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. The only difference? The Jets play at Pittsburgh, whereas the Pats host the Packers. When you combine their remaining schedules with the fact that the head-to-head showdown is at New England, I give the edge to the Pats and see them finishing on top at the end.

2. New England Patriots (9-2)

Randy who? Since trading Randy Moss, the Patriots have gone 3-1 and have looked better than they have all season. Tom Brady, who everyone thought would feel the effects of losing Moss the most, has performed at an even higher level, prompting his MVP campaign to pick up a ton of steam in recent weeks. Since losing his diva target, Brady has averaged 275 passing yards per game and thrown 11 touchdowns versus zero interceptions. Brady has thrown 23 TDs to only 4 picks this year.

The key to the Pats' success has been a balanced attack and big effort from every player on the team. While Brady's performance is rock solid week in a week out, the Pats have gotten valuable contributions from virtually every player on any given week. Last week against the Lions, Deion Branch recorded 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. In their impressive Week 10 dismantling of the Steelers, Rob Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns. In their Week 11 victory over rival Indianapolis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the ball 21 times for 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The list could go on.

When push comes to shove, the Patriots will be incredibly tough to beat. The Randy Moss saga brought the team closer together and gave them some motivation to prove that they can win without their former star. They have adopted a team mentality and bought into a system designed by the best coach in football, and they are led by one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

1. Atlanta Falcons (9-2)

After a perfect November for the Atlanta Falcons, I am finally a believer. The Falcons may have had the most impressive month of any team in football to this point. It started with a victory against a dangerous Buccaneers squad. Next, they defeated arguable the best team at the time, the Baltimore Ravens. Third, they went into St. Louis for a dangerous game against Sam Bradford and company and won by a convincing 34-17 score. And to cap it all off, they held off a surging Green Bay team last week.

The Falcons are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for three reasons. First, Matt Ryan. The third-year quarterback has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the game and is having a great season leading the surprising Falcons. He has thrown 19 touchdowns to only 5 picks and has completed nearly 65% of his pass attempts. In the month of November, Ryan did not throw a single interception en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. More importantly, however, Ryan has shown the ability to pull through when it matters most. Down 21-20 against the Ravens with 1:05 left in the game, Ryan took the ball at his own 20-yard line with a chance to deliver the game-winning drive in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Ryan did not disappoint. He led a 7-play, 62-yard drive in only 45 seconds and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Roddy White. And last week, against the Packers, Ryan took the ball in a tie game with only 56 seconds left on the clock. He managed the clock extremely well knowing the situation; he directed 6 plays for 20 yards in 47 seconds, and gave kicker Matt Bryant the opportunity to kick what turned out to be the game-winning field goal. Matt Ryan, nicknamed "Matty Ice," truly has ice in his veins.

The second reason why the Falcons will reach the Super Bowl is because they are a force at home and will likely have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Finally, the Falcons are such a balanced team that it makes preparing for them so much tougher. Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons on the outside, mainly Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But if you focus too much on defending the pass, the Falcons will run the ball down your throat with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Finally, their balance spans both sides of the ball; the Falcons are second in the NFL in turnover plus/minus at +11.

NFL 2010 Pyramid Rankings: Second Quarter

With half of the NFL season in the book, Bringing the House examines each of the 32 teams in the NFL. How has each team performed and what should fans of each team look forward to in the second half of the season? Rankings are not a direct reflection of win-loss records. Instead, we look at multiple factors, such as quality of wins/opponents, remaining schedule, and personnel, in hopes of a more holistic outlook. Feel free to leave comments!

Tier 6:  Playing for the Draft

32. Buffalo Bills (0-7, up)

Despite the fact that the Bills are the only winless team in the league, these guys are a couple of plays away from being a respectable 3-4. There was a stretch during the season in which the Bills got blown out no matter who they played. But they have since turned it around, despite what their record might indicate. Two weeks ago the Bills almost pulled off the upset of the season when they took the Baltimore Ravens to the wire in a 37-34 overtime loss (instead, the upset of the year honor goes to the Cleveland Browns who traveled to New Orleans and roughed up the Super Bowl champs 30-10). Then last week, the Bills took another tough team, the Kansas City Chiefs, into overtime, but again took the short stick in a 13-10 loss.

Bringing the House predicts that the Bills will win their first game THIS SUNDAY versus the overrated, but now properly rated (because they stink), Chicago Bears. Not only that, but I predict that they will also defeat the Lions the week after that to put together an unforeseen two-game win streak.

For those of you who don't follow Buffalo football--and I imagine there are plenty of you--quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback east of Lake Erie not named Eli Manning or Mark Sanchez. If you're a fantasy football player and are tired of Brett Favre's shenanigans or have suffered a tragic injury and are in need of a new quarterback, check your waiver wire for Fitzpatrick.

31. Carolina Panthers (1-6, down)

I bet the Panthers will end this season with the worst record in the entire NFL. Looking at the team's remaining games, I cannot spot one matchup that I think they will win. Can you?

The Panthers have actually played decent defense so far this season (5th in opponent passing yards per game, 21st in opponent rushing yards per game), but the offense has been absolutely nonexistent. The problem at quarterback is well documented; neither Matt Moore nor Jimmy Clausen is getting the job done. I personally think they should throw Clausen in there, let him struggle and hope that the experience builds character and a foundation for his future.

But what about their run game? The two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart has been one of the most feared duos in recent years, but they have pretty much disappeared this season. If I told you, before the season started, that neither Williams nor Stewart would have a single 100-yard rushing performance through the first eight weeks of the season, you would have called me crazy. But as I look at each player's stats this very second, that is precisely the case. In fact, Stewart has not even rushed for over 50 yards in a game yet this season. Equally pathetic/surprising, the two have only combined for two rushing touchdowns so far. Say what you want about how the poor quarterback play disrupts the run game, but I expect more than that from Williams and Stewart no matter who is under center.

30. Dallas Cowboys (1-6, down)

I will bet anyone that the Cowboys do not finish this season with more than three (3) wins. If you want to take the bet, let me know.

I'm tired of hearing about how talented the team is; I think desire/effort/motivation is part of talent, and the Cowboys players lack all three of those attributes. The Dallas Cowboys have literally become a sideshow in the NFL. Now I will admit that I thought the Boys could turn it around, but I'm officially off the bus.

You can place the blame on anyone you want. Most people put the bulk of it on head coach Wade Phillips. I won't argue with that. All I know is that the team could not run the ball even if their season depended on it (oh wait, it does), the quarterback play is completely unreliable, and the receivers lack consistent focus.

Tier 5:  Playing for Pride

29. Cleveland Browns (2-5, even)
28. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5, down)

Cincy is one of the more disappointing teams this season, but we could have seen this coming. The Bengals are just a plagued organization, much like the Los Angeles Clippers. Quarterback Carson Palmer is no longer an elite above-average quarterback, and the run game that appeared out of nowhere last season disappeared just as fast. The defense has never been there and still isn't. The Bengals have lost four straight and the schedule only gets tougher from here.

As for the Browns…well, they're the Browns.

27. Denver Broncos (2-6, down)

Speaking of losing four straight, the Broncos have done the same and could not have asked for a bye week any sooner. They have a huge showdown with their rival Chiefs in two weeks, but this team's season might already be over. Kyle Orton has played surprisingly well all season and will likely continue to put up nice numbers, but in meaningless games.

26. Arizona Cardinals (3-4, down)

The only thing going for the Cards is that they play in the weakest division in the league. They started the season 3-2, but have lost two in a row since. The team needs help at quarterback, where Derek Anderson and Max Hall both struggle, and at wide receiver, where Larry Fitzgerald's amazing talent is being swallowed by triple coverage. The dramatic drop off from last season really makes one realize how great former MVP star dancer Kurt Warner really was.

25. Chicago Bears (4-3, down)

I never bought Chicago's fast 3-0 start, and now everyone is finally starting to catch on. The Bears are PRETENDERS. Trust me.

Their first three victories were decided by an average of 5 points; one came against a team that got off to a slow start (Packers), one against a team that has since become dangerous (Lions), and one against a complete joke (Cowboys). Three unimpressive wins.

Since then, the Bears are 1-3 with their lone win coming against the Panthers. Even worse, one of those losses came at home against the Seahawks. Yes, you read correctly:  at HOME, against the SEAHAWKS. The Seahawks are so bad on the road that they might as well not even travel--just chalk up a loss. They are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. Yet the Bears somehow lost at majestic Soldier Field. Jay Cutler is back to true form giving interceptions away like they are Halloween candy; Matt Forte, to the chagrin of yours truly, his fantasy owner, has forgotten how to run the ball; and their receiving corps is just as pedestrian as I knew it would be going into the season, despite the fantasy geeks shoving Devon Aromashodu down our throats (who in 5 games has just 7 catches).

24. San Francisco 49ers (2-6, up)

Everyone's pick to win the NFC West and lock up a top playoff spot, the 49ers got off to a terrible 0-5 start before righting the ship against Oakland in mid-October. To be fair, a lot of their losses thus far have been extremely close:  by a field goal to the Saints, by two to Atlanta, by a field goal to Philly, and by a field goal to the Panthers. The Niners have officially handed the reigns over to Troy Smith, who pulled through with a victory last week against the Broncos. The Niners get a timely bye this Sunday and embark on a second half that looks very favorable. They play two games against St. Louis, two against Arizona, and one against each of Seattle, Tampa, Green Bay, and San Diego. They could reasonably finish the year 8-8 and in decent position to win the NFC West.

Tier 4:  Hung Jury

23. Detroit Lions (2-5, up)

Don't be fooled by the Lions' 2-5 record. They play hard and are tough to beat. If you don't bring you "A" game, they'll send you home with a loss--just ask the Redskins who dropped a 37-25 decision last weekend.

The Lions' five losses were decided by an average of 6.4 points, including two losses decided by a field goal or less. They have won two of their past three and Matthew Stafford is back and healthy. Looking ahead, this team could spoil a lot of other teams' hopes of salvaging their poor starts (Dallas in Week 11, Green Bay in Week 14, Minnesota in Week 17).

22. Minnesota Vikings (2-5, even)

In our preseason predictions, we said that the Vikings would miss the playoffs this season. We did not think, however, that they would do it in such dramatic fashion. The Vikings are reeling, yet many have not given up on them. The Randy Moss trade and subsequent release is as bizarre a turn of events of you will see in the NFL. We would not be surprised if this team turned it around or if they fell into the abyss--they are completely unpredictable at this point.

21. Seattle Seahawks (4-3, even)
20. St. Louis Rams (4-4, up)

Before the season, nobody expected either of these teams to be vying for first place halfway through the season. But in a season filled with parity, the Seahawks and Rams sit atop the NFC West with a combined record of 8-7. I think the Rams will finish above the Seahawks by the end of the season, simply because they have a higher ceiling based on talent and because the Seahawks cannot win on the road.

19. Washington Redskins (4-4, down)

The Skins don't really do anything great. They are limited on offense because they lack great players at the skilled positions and they are mediocre on defense and special teams. So far this season they have looked like a good team on some days and a completely different team on others. If you combine that with the recent Donovan McNabb-Mike Shanahan controversy, trouble may be brewing in Washington. I doubt the Skins have enough to make the playoffs, especially considering the division in which they play.

18. San Diego Chargers (3-5, up)

The Chargers are a perfect example of how numbers/statistics lie to us in football. They currently rank 1st in passing yards per game, 1st in opponent's passing yards per game, and 2nd in opponent's rushing yards per game. They also rank 15th in opponent's rushing yards per game. Sounds like numbers fit for a first-place title contender, right? Wrong.

The Chargers got off to a mediocre 2-2 start and then dropped three straight games each by one score. They managed to salvage a 33-25 victory last week at home against Tennessee to keep some hope for this season alive. But the upcoming showdown in Houston is likely a make or break game for San Diego. Nobody doubts that the team has the talent to win; they have one of the top quarterbacks in the league and a future Hall of Famer at tight end. But eventually they have to put everything together and get some wins because the upstart Chiefs don't look like they will let up at all.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4, even)

While the Jags' 4-4 record keeps them out of the bottom third of the rankings, I think the team's win-loss is a bit misleading. Sure, four wins is four wins. But who have they beat exactly? A one-dimensional Broncos team, an injury-plagued and out-of-sync Colts team, the winless Bills, and the biggest joke in the NFL, the Cowboys. So, half of their wins come against two teams with a combined 1-13 record. Not exactly quality wins.

Meanwhile, their four losses all came against quality teams and were all blowouts. They lost to the Chargers, Titans, Eagles, and Chiefs by a combined 99 points! The margin of defeat in each game was more than 20 points! The Jacksonville Jaguars are pretenders! Do not let them fool you.

16. Oakland Raiders (4-4, up)

The Silver & Black have won three of their last four, and two of those victories were absolute drubbings--a 59-14 beatdown of the Broncos at Mile High and a 33-3 win at home against the Seahawks. Add to those an impressive 35-27 defeat of the Chargers, and suddenly people think the Raiders have a legitimate shot to win the AFC West.

The one thing I like about the Raiders is that they have a clear identity. They run the football. They ride their two horses--Darren McFadden and Michael Bush--en route to a second-best 168.5 rush yards per game. The Raiders also rank 5th in passing yards allowed (168.0/game). To summarize, in a passing league, they dominate on the ground and stop opposing quarterbacks. Sounds like a decent recipe for success.

That being said, the second half of the season will be much tougher for Oakland. The combined record of all of their first-half opponents is 27-34. The combined record for all of their second-half opponents? 33-26. Again, Oakland has feasted on subpar teams and been burned by tougher ones (Tennessee and Houston). Next week's game versus Kansas City will establish the tone for the second half of their season, and if they start by falling short against the Chiefs, you can expect a huge fall from there on out.

15. Miami Dolphins (4-3, even)

Even at the midway point, it is tough to get a good read on the Dolphins. Everyone started the season thinking the Dolphins would shove the Wildcat formation down their opponents' throats and win close grind-em-out games. While they certainly have participated in some extremely close contests, it is their passing game, led by Chad Henne, that has kept them competitive. Excluding the game in which he got injured (Week 2), Henne has averaged 38 pass attempts per game. Henne's breakout season is undoubtedly a product of newly-acquired wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who has been nothing short of a beast. Marshall's presence has also opened opportunities up for the young Davone Bess, who is having a breakout season of his own. But the Fins are putrid when it comes to red zone scoring. And if you continue to blow opportunities near the end zone, you will not win the tough games. Ultimately, Miami is a tough team who can compete with the best, but they are just too inconsistent and play in too difficult of a division to have a chance at the playoffs.

Tier 3:  Solid

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2, up)

About one week ago, Tampa's head coach Raheem Morris proclaimed that his Bucs were the "best team in the NFC." Halfway through the season, the Bucs' record supports Morris' claim. But does their play support it?

Yes and no. Like I said earlier, wins are wins. And at 5-2, the Bucs are tied for first in the NFC. They have an emerging star at quarterback in Josh Freeman, who has a knack for pulling through when his team needs him most. At running back, they still seem set on feeding Cadillac Williams the ball, despite the fact that he averages less than three yards per carry. Have we seen a young star's career derail as quickly because of injury as Cadillac's? He was a 1000-yard rusher in his rookie season and has since never crossed that mark. And in two of his previous three seasons, injuries limited him to less than 65 carries.

But the Bucs' quick and impressive start, like that of several other teams, is also a bit misleading. Four of their five wins came by 3 points or less and all five of their wins were over teams that will not likely make the playoffs (a combined 12-24 record). Fortunately for the Bucs, they play in the NFC, which is pretty wide open. This Sunday they have a huge show down with the Falcons, which will determine first-place in the division. Meanwhile, the defending champion Saints are lurking at 5-3 and, after a nice win against the Steelers, seem to be gaining some of their swagger back. I think the Bucs will continue racking up wins against poor teams, but will ultimately lose to the Falcons and Saints down the stretch, thereby ending all hope of a playoff berth.

13. Houston Texans (4-3, down)

Love the Texans' offense, but hate the Texans' defense. I doubt the Texans can beat the Colts out for the division title, which means that they will need to duke it out for the wild card spot in the tough AFC. And I don't buy that a team that allows 28.1 points per game, a league-worst 299.4 pass yards per game, and dead last in turnovers.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (4-3, up)

With a healthy Mike Vick, this is a playoff team. The bye week gave Vick a great opportunity to rest and gear up for the second half of the season. The schedule is pretty difficult from here on out, but there is no reason why the Eagles couldn't win more than half of their remaining games. The showdown against the Colts this Sunday is enormous; Vick and DeSean Jackson both return to action and look to get this team back on track.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2, even)

Far and away the most surprising team in the league this season, the Chiefs have cooled off a bit since their quick 3-0 start, but remain the same team that they were in the first quarter of the year:  a tough, run-first, defense-oriented team. They are still first in the league in rushing and seventh in defending the run. They don't do much through the air (on either side of the football), but can put up points despite their throwing deficiencies. Before the season began, nobody would have ever predicted that the AFC West would look like it does not at the midway point. But the Chargers look like they might be turning things around and make a late push to defend their division crown. The Chiefs will need to take advantage of a very favorable schedule the rest of the way to secure their first playoff berth since 2006.

Tier 2:  Almost There

10. Green Bay Packers (5-3, even)

The Packers are still not the team everyone expected them to be at this point, but they are showing good signs at the right time. Their defense absolutely dominated the Jets last week in the Meadowlands en route to a 9-0 shutout. This defense was ferocious last season, and despite all the publicity Aaron Rodgers and the offense receives, it is the defense that really puts this team over the top. The Pack has a game at home against the Cowboys this Sunday and then a bye week in time to gear up for the home stretch that includes some tough games--at Minnesota, at Atlanta, at New England, and home against the Giants. The Packers should be thankful that the rest of the NFC North is struggling; the Bears have been revealed for who they really are (frauds), the Vikings can't seem to dig themselves out of their hole, and the Lions are competitive but a couple years away from being anything serious.

9. Tennessee Titans (5-3, up)

The Titans may be the team the most mysterious team in the top ten. At 5-3, they stand second in a tough AFC South and right in the thick of the AFC race. But when people stop and think about the top teams in the AFC, they never consider the Titans. Well, why not?

The main reason is that people just don't believe that Vince Young can be a starting quarterback on a legitimate contender. The numbers, however, would argue otherwise. Young currently leads the entire NFL--yes, the ENTIRE league--in quarterback rating at 103.1. Young has managed to do so by protecting the football. He has thrown only two interceptions this year and both game in the same game, versus Pittsburgh in the second week. Interestingly, Young has not done much with his legs, which has been his strength throughout his career. This season he has only rushed 20 times for 91 yards and zero touchdowns.

Finally, let's talk about the pink elephant in the room:  the Randy Moss acquisition. Moss, his antics, his relationships with previous coaches, and his work ethic have been discussed ad nauseum. I personally don't make much of the signing because I think Moss is done; the will is just not there. And if Moss' will is not there, his performance will not be there either. I am, however, very curious as to the thought processes behind Jeff Fisher and the Titans organization taking a risk on Moss. Fisher is a great coach, and although I know coaches have an ego about them that they can be the one to turn a guy around, but I thought his judgment would force him to turn the Moss acquisition down. Instead, the Titans made the move and now look like they, just like the VIkings before them, are going for broke this season. Most importantly, can Vince Young get Moss the ball enough to make Moss happy? Will Moss be satisfied in a run-first offense with a quarterback that lacks the traditional pocket presence and pure throwing skill that his previous quarterbacks (Brady and Favre) possessed in abundance? The next few weeks will be very interesting.

8. New Orleans Saints (5-3, even)

Never mind the inexplicable losses to the Cardinals and the Browns. While those losses were both embarrassing for the defending champs, their main problems lies outside of those isolated performances. The Saints' biggest problem at this point is their inconsistency. Since week two, the Saints have not strung together back-to-back wins or losses in any two consecutive games. This week, however, the Saints have a chance to buck that trend in a meeting against the Panthers.

Perhaps even more surprising is the pedestrian play of quarterback Drew Brees. Last season, Brees threw 11 interceptions. Through eight games this season, Brees has, you guessed it, 11 interceptions. While the quarterback has struggled immensely by his own standards, he may have weathered the storm successfully; the Saints are right in the thick of the NFC race and enter the second half of the season on the heels of a great victory against the Steelers.

Tier 1:  The Big Boys

7. Atlanta Falcons (5-2,  even)

I am still not sold on the Falcons, but a 5-2 record with a win over the defending champions earns them a spot in the top tier for now. Here are my concerns:

First, I don't think Matt Ryan is a good enough quarterback to lead a team to a title at this point in his career. I just don't think he has "it." He is a definite notch below Brees, Peyton and Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Tom Brady, each of whom have won at least one championship.

Second, besides an overtime victory over an inconsistent Saints team, who have they beat this season? They smashed the Cardinals, but who hasn't? They barely beat a pathetic 49ers team, squeezed out a victory against the Cleveland Browns, and edged out a Bengals team after they gave up a huge lead. Their two losses came against legitimate playoff teams:  the Steelers and the Eagles. My theory is that the Falcons are padding their record against subpar teams, which they will continue to do the rest of the way because of a ridiculously easy schedule. They will enter the playoffs with a great record and fall to the first team they face.

6. New York Giants (5-2, even)

The G-Men have quietly positioned themselves as one of the top teams in the league. They have won four straight after a slow 1-2 start and will return after a bye week to face Seattle and Dallas. The Giants are a very balanced team as they rank 8th in pass yards per game, 4th in rush yards per game, 2nd in pass yards allowed, and 3rd in rush yards allowed; these are the numbers of a championship squad. Eli is a proven winner and he has new weapons to play with. Ahmad Bradshaw, thought to be a backup going into the season, has put together an outstanding first half and currently ranks fourth in total rushing yards. And on the outsides, the Giants have a very reliable Steve Smith and an emerging go-to receiver in Hakeem Nicks. With Dallas no longer a threat, the Redskins wavering in mediocrity, and the Eagles plagued with injuries, the Giants are in great position to take the NFC East and make another run for a title.

5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2, up)

The amount of injuries that the Colts have suffered is unbelievable. But despite all the adversity, Peyton Manning has led the team to first place in the division and one Josh Scobee 59-yard field goal away from a six-game win streak. The Colts have beat tough teams; they have wins over the Giants, Texans, Chiefs, and Redskins. The remaining schedule is difficult and begins with a tough matchup against the quicker and more athletic Eagles this Sunday. The only worry I have about this team is that they cannot stop the run; they currently give up 133.1 yards on the ground per game; I don't care how good Manning is…if the defense cannot stop the run late in games and get the ball back to Manning, he can't run his patented two-minute drill.

4. New York Jets (5-2, even)

While everyone was rendered speechless by the Jets' 9-0 loss to the Packers last week, I wasn't too surprised. Mark Sanchez was bound to have a bad game--the odds were simply against his continued flawless performances. And just as expected, the defense played very well and only surrendered nine points to a high-powered Packers offense. It only surprised those who thought the Jets had somehow gotten over the hump to become a complete and dominant football team. But not so fast. Let's not forget who these guys are. The Jets are a run-first, defense-oriented football team with a quarterback that is responsible only for playing mistake-free football. At the same time, don't be too quick to jump off the bus and sound the alarm; every team has road bumps. And while this road bump looked huge, it really wasn't. As sloppy and ugly as the team played, it's not like they got blown out 32-0. The Jets trailed by only one score as late as the seven-minute mark in the fourth quarter. Much ado about nothing.

3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2, up)

I am beginning to think that the Ravens are not as good as everyone wants them to be. They do a lot of things good, but nothing great. Perhaps most alarming is the fact that the defense gave up 34 points in an overtime win last week against the winless Bills. I expect more from a championship-level defense loaded with Pro Bowlers and future Hall of Famers. Furthermore, I am not sold on Joe Flacco just yet. I have the same reservations concerning Flacco that I do about Matt Ryan.

Look, I don't want to be too tough on the Ravens right now. They have won four of their last five, but I have yet to see a complete performance on both sides of the ball.

The AFC is going to be nothing less than a dog fight from this point forward. And while the Week 13 matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is crucial to both teams, the AFC North race will likely go down to the final week or two of the season. If the Ravens can sweep the season series against the Steelers, that could pay huge dividends in the long run.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, even)

Likewise, I am not surprised at all by the Steelers' loss to the Saints last week. For one, it was a road game against the defending champs. Second, the defending champs were desperate for a victory. And third, it was only Big Ben's second game back and the offense would undoubtedly be--and was--out of sync.

I watched that game and two things stood out to me. First, Pittsburgh's defense is a force to be reckoned with. Not only do they look bigger and stronger, but they play faster and hit harder than anyone other team's in the league. Most importantly, they do NOT miss tackles. On multiple occasions, Saints players had the ball in open space with only one man to beat. No matter who the defender was--a corner, a linebacker, a safety, etc.--the Steelers players made the stop. It was very impressive and actually a nice breath of fresh air because it seems like teams at both the college and professional levels have forgotten how to tackle.

The second observation I made was that, despite Big Ben's rustiness, I had complete belief and confidence that Roethlisberger would pull out the victory in the fourth quarter. He is a clutch quarterback with a proven record and attitude that makes you believe in him. Once he gets his timing back and the offense gets on the same page, you will not find a more complete team in the league.

1. New England Patriots (6-1, up)

The Moss-less Patriots are the cream of the crop after eight weeks of football. Nobody could have predicted the route through which they traveled to their 6-1 record. Sure, Brady is posting the numbers that everyone expected and Wes Welker is catching millions of passes. But what are we to make of the random cavalcade of no-names that the Patriots have brought in? Rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have been valuable outlets for Brady; the Pats have called upon the dangerous running duo of Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to carry the ground game; and bona fide deep threat Brandon Tate is torching secondaries like Moss circa 2007. Did we mention that Deion Branch is back with the Patriots, too? This is stacking up to be a bizarre season for the Patriots, but a successful one nonetheless. Interestingly, I, not usually a Patriots fan or hater either way, find myself cheering for New England each week (I suppose it helps that I have Brady on my fantasy football team).

The Pats still have HUGE questions in their secondary; they rank second-to-last in pass defense, but mastermind Bill Belichick has found ways to win despite that glaring weakness. In the long run, however, I just don't see how they win with a secondary like that. The quarterbacks that the Pats could potentially encounter in the playoffs will be too skilled to not carve up the Pats defense. Maybe the Patriots can somehow manufacture a shutdown corner. Who knows, stranger things have happened so far this season.

NFL 2010 Pyramid Rankings: First Quarter

Now that a quarter of the season has passed, let's take a look at how the teams of the NFL stack up in relation to one another, irrespective of divisions. I placed teams into six different tiers and then ordered them within those tiers. Teams are NOT ordered solely based on overall record, but rather based on a combination of overall record, quality of performance, and future outlook. Leave your thoughts in the "Comments" section and let the debate begin! Without further ado, the first edition of the Bringing the House 2010 NFL Pyramid Rankings...

Tier 6:  Looking Ahead to the Draft
The following teams might as well pack it in for the season and begin planning for the upcoming draft.

32. Bills

31. Raiders

30. Cardinals

29. Lions

28. Browns

27. Panthers

Tier 5:  Second-Half Spoilers
These teams are not going to make the playoffs, but they sure will make the second half of the season interesting with their abilities to stay competitive and challenge teams that might take them for granted.

26. Seahawks

25. Rams

24. 49ers

Ah, the dreadful NFC West. The 49ers might be the most disappointing team in football because many had predicted them to finally breakout, win the division, and become a contender. An 0-4 start leads me to believe that none of those predictions will come true. Meanwhile, the Rams and Seahawks, despite my low rankings here, have been somewhat surprising so far. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford looks like the real deal and at least makes games fun to watch. Up in the Pacific Northwest, the young Seahawks under Pete Carroll continue to thrive at home, but lie down on the road.

23. Bucs

Josh Freeman continues to progress, but the Bucs cannot really hang with any decent team; two wins so far over lowly Cleveland and Carolina, followed by a blowout loss to division-leading Pittsburgh.

22. Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew will enable this team to do some damage if a contender sleeps against the run down the stretch.

21. Broncos

Guess which quarterback leads the NFL in total passing yards? Denver's Kyle Orton. The Broncos will not make the playoffs this season, but Orton has made great strides and the team is good enough to compete in every game in plays.

Tier 4:  Pretenders
The teams listed below have started the season playing solid football as evidenced by .500 or better winning percentages. But don't be fooled by their quick starts out of the gate because they will probably fizzle out and not be in the playoff picture at the end of the season.

20. Giants

The G-Men might be the worst team in a pretty evenly-matched NFC East. I'm not saying they are terrible, but they are the odd team out.

19. Patriots

The Moss trade probably won't affect the Patriots as negatively as you may be tempted to think. However, the team has serious issues on defense, and if you don't think they have been exposed quite yet (news flash:  they have), then they certainly will be exposed in upcoming games versus Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota, Indy, and Green Bay.

18. Bengals

As much as it hurts to say, Carson Palmer peaked as a quarterback years ago, and the Bengals are not going to get over the hump with him as their field general. That being said, everyone was sold a bill of goods related to this team. Remember when everyone last year attributed the team's success to Cedric Benson and their run game? Yeah, Benson is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season. As for new sideshow acquisition Terrell Owens, if you take out last week's 10-catch, 222-yard performance, he's only caught 14 passes for 152 yards with zero touchdowns. Pretty subpar for a big-time free agent signing.

17. Bears

Don't let the Bears' 3-1 start trick you into thinking they are a legit contender. Jay Cutler is not good enough to win big games and the Bears have absolutely no running game. As for the supposed Monsters of the Midway, they rank 27th in opposing passing yards per game at 255.3. Can you say overrated?

16. Dolphins

Miami is a year or two away from the playoffs. But there style of play will enable them to win some tough games and remain competitive throughout the season even in losses.

Tier 3:  Finding their Way
These teams are closer to "contender" than they are to "pretender," and I reasonably expect them to perform above average for the rest of the season.

15. Chiefs

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season, the young Chiefs have shot out to a 3-0 start that began with a thrilling victory over the Chargers on the first Monday night of the season. They followed that up with a close victory over Cleveland and then a thumping of the 49ers. Look, I know people are still skeptical of the Chiefs. But to the doubters I say look at the numbers and look at their predecessors. Specifically, this team can run the ball (160.7 yards per game) and they can stop the run (75.0 yards per game against). As for their predecessors, I don't mean last year's Chiefs. I mean last year's Jets, because these Chiefs look very similar. A young QB from USC who people doubt can win games with his arm, a dominant rushing attack, and an aggressive defense. I'm not saying the Chiefs make the AFC Championship Game, but perhaps they are a dark horse for a wild card spot or even the AFC West crown.

14. Cowboys
13. Titans
12. Redskins

I think these three teams will find ways to a put forth solid performances the rest of the way. The Skins are still looking for an identity, but I have tons of confidence in Donovan McNabb, and I don't think he will let this team fail. Furthermore, although the Skins have stumbled early, the two wins that they managed to salvage were against interdivisional opponents, which is some nice silver lining.

Like the Skins, I expect the Titans to find a way to turn things around, mainly because they did it last year. Their run game will always be strong with Chris Johnson, and their defense, currently top-15 in both rushing and passing against, will keep them in most games. Finally, Vince Young will find ways to win with both his arm and his legs.

"America's Team" had lofty expectations coming into the season, but has failed to deliver through its first three games. The first two games were plagued by undisciplined moments--big turnovers and costly penalties. But in its most recent game against the Texans, the Cowboys finally put it all together. And despite the 1-2 record, the Cowboys have posted numbers that normally would result in a better record (4th in offensive passing; 14th in defensive passing; 8th in defensive rushing).

11. Vikings

Minnesota has gotten off to the most disappointing start of any team in the NFL, but a small minority of people, myself included, foresaw their struggles. Favre does not look the same as he did during his career season of last year; that, coupled with the injury to Sidney Rice, has resulted in a pathetic 24th-ranked passing offense. That being said, Vikings fans should not fear for two reasons. First, Randy Moss is back, and I think the implications will be huge. And second, the team's defense is one of the strongest in the league--ranked 8th in opponent passing yards per game and 9th in opponent rushing yards per game--and will buy the offense time to work out its kinks.

10. Eagles

I really like Philly as long as Michael Vick plays quarterback. He should only miss a couple weeks with his injured ribs, so if Kevin Kolb can keep the team competitive during Vick's absence, then I have confidence that the Eagles can make it out of the NFC East. The division seems very jumbled, not only in record, but in actual ability. This team will go as far as Vick can take them.

9. Colts
8. Chargers

San Diego and Indy are two teams accustomed to winning their divisions with much competition. But both teams have gotten off to rough 2-2 starts highlighted by some devastating losses; the Chargers lost road games to two surprise teams, one during a rainstorm in Kansas City and the other to the Seahawks and their rowdy fans. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and company got shellacked in week one by the upstart Texans and then lost a slugfest to the Jaguars last week after kicker Josh Scobee hit a field goal from what seemed like miles away. The bottom line, however, is that these teams still have immense talent and are under the guidance of incredible quarterbacks. They are just too good to miss the playoffs.

Tier 2:  Almost There (On the Cusp)
This tier consists of teams that have been very solid through the first quarter of the season, but have questions that need to be answered. These teams are strong, but incomplete. In order to join the elite teams above, they need to patch up their holes.

7. Packers

6. Saints

Before the season, the Saints and Packers were considered by many to play in the NFC Championship Game. As Super Bowl Champions, the Saints were the obvious team to beat. And minus an overtime loss to the Falcons, they have looked pretty solid. However, they can't run the ball, and they can't stop the run. And although a dominant run game is not necessary because this is a passing league, you have to be able to stop the opposition from running. And they have not been able to do so thus far; they allowed 118 yards to Carolina, 202 yards to Atlanta, and 142 yards to San Francisco. If they don't stop the run, their defense will be on the field longer during games. And if the defense is on the field more, that means Brees is on the sideline. And Brees can't score from the sideline, regardless of how good you think he is.

For the Packers, the issue is putting everything together and delivering complete performances on a consistent basis. Obviously, they have the talent; a prolific passer at the helm (Aaron Rodgers), a great receiving cast (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley), and several potential defensive player of the year candidates on defense (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews). But for whatever reason the team has yet to live up to their potential. Like the Saints, they can't run the ball and they can't stop the run.

5. Texans
The 3-1 Texans have been a huge surprise because of the way in which they have won their games--not through the air, but on the ground. Yes, QB Matt Schaub looks like he is on his way to another huge statistical season, but RB Arian Foster has emerged out of nowhere to lead the league in rushing, mainly on the heels of an incredible week one effort against the Colts. The Texans have the most explosive offense in the league, currently ranking 8th in passing yards per game (243.5) and 1st in rushing yards per game (172.0). The only concern for the Texans, as it has been in recent years, is the defense. While they ranked dead last in opponent passing yards per game by allowing a whopping 337.8 yards per contest, they surprisingly rank 2nd in opponent's rushing yards per game at 70.3. The return of suspended linebacker Brian Cushing will certainly help.

4. Falcons

The A-T-L is flying under the radar, but after examining their body of work thus far, I have to put them at the top of the second tier. Their lone loss comes at the hands of a tier one team (Steelers) in overtime on a breakaway run by one of the league's top rushers (Mendenhall). But other than that, the Falcons have shown the ability to play a complete game (41-7 victory over Arizona) and win a close game against a tough team (Saints) and a dangerous sleeper (49ers). One attribute of good teams is that they find ways to win games when things are not going according to plan. Last week against the 49ers, the Falcons got off to a slow start and trailed 14-0 after the first quarter. But the team shut out the Niners for the final three quarters and kicker Matt Bryant nailed his second game-winning field goal of the season to give the Dirty Birds the victory. But the thing that stuck out was star wide receiver Roddy White's incredible hustle play at the tail end of a Matt Ryan interception. After 49ers cornerback Nate Clements intercepted Ryan late in the fourth quarter, he commenced a mad dash for the end zone. However, White chased down Clements and knocked the ball loose, allowing the Falcons to regain possession and march down the other way for Bryant's eventual kick.

What impresses me most about Atlanta, however, is their overall balance. Through four games, the Falcons rank 10th in the league in passing yards per game, 4th in rushing yards per game, 18th in passing yards against, and 11th in rushing yards against. That's pretty solid. Not to mention, the rest of the schedule looks pretty soft, and a final record of 12-4 seems very reasonable.

Tier 1:  Leading the Pack
The following teams have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the teams in the league. These teams sit in the driver seats of their respective divisions and play every week with a target on their backs.

3. Steelers

2. Jets

I rank the Jets above the Steelers for two reasons; first, the Jets have a more explosive offense as evidenced by dropping 28 on the Patriots, 31 on a tough Miami team on the road, and 38 against the Bills. Sanchez has progressed more than anyone could have predicted, and with Santonio Holmes due back this Monday, things should only get better. And although LaDainian Tomlinson's resurgence is great for the boys from the Meadowlands, the team will only go as far as Sanchez takes them. After week one, I jumped off the Jets bandwagon, but their performances in the past three weeks have made me a believer again. As for the Steelers, running back Rashard Mendenhall has had a nice start and has proven to be a solid number one running back. The defense leads the league in rushing yards allowed (62.3). But, perhaps most importantly, the team gets Big Ben back this weekend. Roethlisberger will help the Steelers and their second-to-last place passing game, and his experience will guide them to another deep playoff run.

1. Ravens

All the questions coming into the season concerning the Ravens injury-ridden secondary now seem absolutely silly. The Ravens have jumped out to an impressive 3-1 start by allowing the least amount of passing yards per game (119.0). Although running back Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco have gotten off to slow starts, their mediocre performances are more a product of facing tough defenses than individual regression. The fact is that the Ravens have victories over the other two teams in the top tier, the Jets and the Steelers, and that has to count for something. The only blemish on their record thus far is a week two loss to the Bengals in a close game on the road. For the record, the Bengals did not score a single touchdown in that game; kicker Mike Nugent nailed five field goals.