Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 19

NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Miami Heat

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  47-35
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House

The Miami Heat basically have a completely new roster. Once Dwyane Wade, LeBron, and Bosh had announced that they were joining forces in South Beach, everyone immediately asked what players the Heat management would bring in to support the stars. People thought the team simply did not have enough cap space to run out a complete team. What some may not realize is that each of the three stars took a pay cut to make this all a reality. The pay cut allowed the Heat to retain some young talent, like point guard Mario Chalmers, as well as some solid, unselfish big men, like Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem. The Heat then took the leftover money and began courting players who could fill roles that you commonly see on championship teams:  the outside sharpshooters (Miller and House), veteran big men off the bench (Ilgauskas, Juwon Howard, and Jamaal Magloire), and young guys who can provide sparks of energy (Patrick Beverley and Da'Sean Butler).

I know critics will hate to admit it, but the Heat have a legitimate squad. They have three of the game's top twenty players, including two of the top four, and have other players--Chalmers, Miller, Haslem, and Ilgauskus--that would be starters on many other teams. On paper, this is one of the best teams in the league.

Key Losses:  Michael Beasley

While Beasley has a ton of promise, the off-court troubles and the opportunity to secure a guys who are already superstars led the Heat to give up the former Kansas State star. In essence, the Heat basically traded Beasley for LeBron or Beasley for Bosh, and I do not think you could find a GM who would turn those deals down.

Most Important Player:  Dwyane Wade/LeBron James

The dynamic duo will need to find a way to play together if this team is to have success this season and in future seasons. Miami is clearly Dwyane's world; he brought the city a championship and is the unquestioned face of the franchise. But LeBron has always been the big fish in a small pond, as well. So how will the two find a way to share the ball, the court, and the limelight? Eventually, someone has to defer and play Robin to the other's Batman. Specifically, who is going to take the last shot when the game is on the line? In my opinion, it has to be Wade. Over the course of his career, he has demonstrated on countless occasions the ability to hit the big shot. Furthermore, if there is any knock on LeBron, it is that he does not have that killer instinct or that finisher's mentality. Will LeBron face the truth in Miami and let Dwyane do the honors?

When it comes to the first three quarters of a game, I think coexistence will be easy. In fact, I think the two of them will be extremely fun to watch. In preseason games thus far, we have seen LeBron bring the ball up court as a point-forward. He has great court vision, amazing passing ability, and has always appeared to be an unselfish player. Giving LeBron the responsibility of distributing the ball may actually put him in a more comfortable role than he has ever been. But the success of this venture will depend almost exclusively on how the stars manage their egos.

Rookie Spotlight:  Da'Sean Butler

If you followed college basketball at all last season, then you know all about Da'Sean Butler. The forward from West Virginia made a reputation by hitting numerous, memorable buzzer-beating shots. It was truly amazing how Butler seemed to rise to the occasion and bury his opponents. The final moments of those close West Virginia games were almost comedic; every fan in the arena, every announcer covering the game, and every player on the court knew that Butler would get the ball. The defense would be designed to prevent Butler from getting the ball and prevent Butler from attempting a shot. Yet, time and time again, Butler would get the ball, create a shot, and nail it. Butler is a versatile player with great character and leadership ability. The Heat got a steal when Butler landed in their lap during the draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some minutes to spell LeBron and Wade this season, and certainly in the future.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  1st

While some preseason injuries may temporarily thwart this Miami empire, I cannot imagine them finishing anywhere except atop this division. Talent wins out. Always. They have two of the four best players in the game today and the cast to provide valuable support.

In terms of winning a championship, I am not sure whether they win one this season or next or the year after that. But I can reasonably see it happening any season from here on out. Anyone that thinks otherwise is just in denial. The Lakers dynasty under Kobe will come to an end in a few years, if not sooner, simply because of age; the Celtics reign with their "Big 3" is pretty much over; the Spurs dominance with their "Big 3" is even more dead. This season is the start of a new era in the NBA.

Orlando Magic

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  59-23
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Lost in Third Round

Key Additions:  Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson

Evidently, the Magic felt as though the pieces that they in place last season are good enough to win this season. They brought back almost every on their two-deep depth chart and added Duhon to spell Jameer Nelson and "Q" to backup Mickael Pietrus. Richardson gives the Magic yet another three point shooter to whom Dwight Howard can kick out the ball. Duhon will share backup point guard duties with the flashy but inconsistent Jason Williams (aka White Chocolate).

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Jameer Nelson

Nelson is key to this team because everyone else in the starting five has either reached his potential or is on the way down. Nelson is the only one on the way up. He does not have the ability to take over any game with his scoring, but he can provide a steady 15-18 points per game if needed. More importantly, Nelson will need to remain healthy and manage a starting lineup filled with three guys who need touches:  Vince Carter, Howard, and Rashard Lewis. The Magic have been plagued by inconsistent point guard play for the past several seasons, and they need some stability at that position if they want to dethrone the Celtics and prevent the Heat from taking control in the East.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Stanley Robinson

Robinson is an extremely athletic, lengthy forward who can provide a spark off the bench through rebounding and blocking shots. While the Magic have Howard, they don't really have any other big men who play above the rim; Ryan Anderson is versatile but poses a big threat mainly beyond the arc; Marcin Gortat is a high-energy guy but makes his presence felt mainly on hustle plays; and new acquisition Brandon Bass is strong but lacks the athleticism to play with quicker forwards. Enter Stanley Robinson. He might not get many minutes, but expect him to have some nice highlights every once in awhile.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

While a lot of teams would be more than happy to finish second in their division and make a deep run in the playoffs, the Magic seem like they do this routine each year. In my opinion, I think this team has plateaued for two reasons. First, I think Dwight Howard is overrated. He is a great rebounder, a great shot-blocker, and definitely a freak athlete. But I don't think he is a dominant offense big man who can lead a team to a title. When you combine his limitations with an over-the-hill Vinsanity (points per game and free throw attempts have declined for three straight seasons) and a declining Rashard Lewis (points per game and free throw attempts have also declined for three straight seasons), you suddenly have a team whose window of opportunity probably closed shut already. And second, Orlando needs to make a coaching change. I will not rip Stan Van Gundy for being a terrible coach because any coach who can get a team to/past the Eastern Conference Finals on a consistent basis deserves some recognition. However, he cannot get them over the hump and on that final podium, which is the main goal of any coach. Clearly, something needs to be done; and the fact that management did not make any significant player changes may be a signal of what is soon to come.

Atlantic Hawks

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  53-29
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Lost in Second Round

Key Additions:  Josh Powell

Like the Magic, the Hawks also felt that their current collection of players would suffice for this upcoming season. Again, I find myself confused. How is it that you stick with the same group of guys despite the fact that year after year you do not advance past the second round? Don't you notice a trend? Why not try to make some improvements? Instead, the Hawks decided to stick it out with the same starting five, a couple of bench holdovers, and some new additions, highlighted mainly by former Lakers backup Josh Powell. Powell gives the Hawks some much-needed depth at forward, some decent rebounding ability, and an unselfish personality. But not much else.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  Al Horford

To me, the Hawks will go as far as Horford takes them. Much like Nelson on the Magic, Horford is the only one of the major Hawks players whose stock is going up. Horford has shown great improvement in each of his first three seasons, and if he can develop into a go-to scorer down-low, the Hawks are in great shape. Until then, they lack any sort of advantage when put up against teams like the Heat, the Celtics, and the Magic. Mike Bibby has peaked as a professional and is on his way down; Joe Johnson is a star, but not a superstar; Marvin Williams has proven to be a draft bust; and Josh Smith is still one of the most exciting players in the league. I think what the Hawks need most is a dominant big man who can make a difference, offensively, in games, and a dynamic new point guard. With Horford, one of those things is very possible as soon as this year.

Rookie Spotlight:  Jordan Crawford

The guard out of Xavier has some nice potential for the Hawks. In his college days, Crawford was a number-one scoring option and a nightly guarantee to light up the scoreboard. I am not quite sure if his abilities translate well to the progressional game, but time will tell. He is a bit undersized to play shooting guard, so if he can improve his ball-handling abilities, he may be able to battle Jeff Teague for the backup point guard role. For this season, look for Crawford to get some minutes in garbage time and put together a couple of scoring barrages.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  3rd

While the Hawks will still be very competitive this season, I think they are letting their opportunity fly by them. The Heat have quickly become the team to beat for the next decade and the Magic, as long as Howard is around, will remain a close second. The Hawks have had some decent runs in recent years, but this group of guys is not going to win you anything beyond a first round series. And as deep as the East is this season, the Hawks will be lucky to even get that.

Washington Wizards

2009-2010 Recap:


Record:  26-56
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian, Kirk Hinrich

The Wizards added three solid players to their roster this offseason. Howard was at one point one of the best small forwards in the game, though he has since regressed, mainly due to injuries. The potential for more ACL problems will certainly loom over him this season, but if he manages to remain healthy, Howard can still produce at a high level. Remember, during a three-year stretch earlier in his career, Howard guaranteed you 19 points and 7 boards per game. That would be a huge for this Wizards team.

As for Yi, I don't think he'll ever become the franchise center that NBA scouts envisioned. But I do think that he could be a solid contributor, especially because of his ability to draw opposing centers out to the perimeter with his three-point shooting. Unfortunately, the Wizards do not have a dominant inside-scoring threat that draws double teams, or else Yi would do a nice job at stretching defenses and punishing defenders for double-teaming.

Finally, Hinrich gives the Wizards a veteran point guard off the bench and someone who can mentor John Wall. Hinrich is good enough to be a starter on some teams and he will certainly give the Wizards solid play behind Wall.

Key Losses:  None

Most Important Player:  John Wall

With apologies to Agent Zero, Wall became the leader and most important player on this team from the moment NBA Commissioner announced his name on draft night. If you live under a rock and have not seen footage of Wall, all you need to know is that he might be the most talented point guard in the league right now. I'm not saying he is the best, because he obviously lacks valuable experience. But he is explosive, exciting, and an undoubted franchise player. The Wizards are a couple of years and one or two more pieces away from making the playoffs, but Wall will put people in the seats, earn consistent spots on highlight reels, and give the Wizards organization some hope.

Rookie Spotlight: 
John Wall

See above.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  4th

I think the Wizards have some nice young pieces and will make a strong run at 4th in the Southeast Division. Wall will be the focus night in and night out, but don't sleep on players like Nick Young, Al Thornton, Andray Blatche, and JaVale McGee.

Charlotte Bobcats

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  44-38
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Lost in First Round

Key Additions:  D.J. Augustin

See "Most Important Player" section below.

Key Losses:  Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler

I will get into the loss of Felton more below, but I think his loss will be felt in the standings in a dramatic way. As for Chandler, he has not fulfilled expectations throughout his career and his attitude leaves a lot to be desired. I think the Bobcats did right by letting him go and securing a nice frontline of Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Kwame Brown, Boris Diaw, and Tyrus Thomas.

Most Important Player: 
D.J. Augustin

Augustin takes over for Raymond Felton as the chief conductor of the Charlotte offense. Augustin is the most important player because I think Felton was a huge part of the team's surprising success last season. Remember, not only did the Bobcats have nine more wins last season than they did the previous year, but the Bobcats were competitive against a lot of tough teams; for example, they lost by 2 against the Lakers at Staples Center and later beat the Lakers by 15 in Charlotte. Anytime you take the point guard of a young team out of the equation, the chemistry can always go south in a hurry. And if the Bobcats hope to duplicate, or even improve on, last season's success, they need a seamless transition from Felton to Augustin.

Rookie Spotlight:  Sherron Collins

If the D.J. Augustin project does not work out, Sherron Collins is not a bad fallback option. The former Kansas star is a tough competitor and someone who does not shy away from big moments. People have questioned whether his size will prevent him from being great at the NBA level, but I don't buy into that criticism. I don't see Collins being an All-Star, but I can easily see him starting on a playoff contender.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  5th

The Bobcats' unexpected success last season probably resulted from a variety of factors including, but not limited to, Felton's emergence as a starting point guard, Stephen Jackson's emergence as a go-to scorer, Gerald Wallace's emergence as a special forward, and Larry Brown's influence as a head coach. Well, this season, Felton is obviously gone, and I don't think Jackson can duplicate the season he had last year; he's simply racking up too much mileage. Those factors coupled with the a dangerous young Wizards club will result in the Bobcats dropping back to cellar of the Southeast Division.

Sunday, August 8

LeBron's Decision: What Champions are Made of

miami heat.Image by JNikon via Flickr
We are officially one month removed from LeBron James' infamous "Decision." Since then, everyone from basketball Hall of Famers to casual fans have ripped the new Miami Heat superstar. Fans have burned jerseys, owners have written scathing letters, and comedians have spoofed the announcement event. As usual, I like to sleep on issues before I offer my reaction to them. That being said, having weighed the merits of every possible side to the debate of whether LeBron's decision was good/bad/justified, I can officially go on record and say that I applaud LeBron's decision. Although I think the way he delivered it was questionable, I believe he made the best choice and put himself in the best position to build a legacy defined by winning championships. Let's begin.

The following is a list of eleven individuals often considered among the top ten greatest players in NBA history. I present the names in no particular order. I took the names from a general survey of various lists compiled by basketball analysts, fans, writers, and present and former players and coaches. The players are:

Michael Jordan
Wilt Chamberlain
Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Oscar Robertson
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Shaquille O'Neal
Kobe Bryant
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Bill Russell

What made/makes these players great?  Number of championships? That's debatable. Oscar Robertson, widely considered the best point guard of all time, only won one NBA title and he is often included in most top ten lists. Furthermore, if we looked at sheer championships alone, then the likes of Robert Horry and KC Jones must be included in the list. What about individual accolades, like MVP awards or career points? Again, you could make that argument, but it has some glaring flaws. If you look at the top 10 career scoring leaders, the 2nd (Karl Malone), 6th (Moses Malone), 7th (Elvin Hayes), and 10th (Dominique Wilkins) ranked players are not on the above list. But who is on the list and almost uniformly ranked ahead of the three aforementioned players in any all-time greats discussion? The 33rd ranked all-time leading scorer, Tim Duncan. So there are some inconsistencies in that regard. Well, then, what about the "it" factor? I have no doubt that this is part of the equation, but because different players have different qualities that fit this category, and because "it" cannot be quantified, we cannot rank players solely on that basis. Thus, greatness is a combination of championships/winning, individual achievement, and a special "it" factor.

Now, let's take a look at that same list of eleven players, but this time I will make notes next to each of their names. Specifically, I will note the number of championships that player has won, the number of MVPs the player has won, the number of All-Star game appearances that the player has made, and a brief a couple words that describe the player's legacy or intangibles.

Michael Jordan - 6x champ/5x MVP/14x All-Star/killer instinct, competitiveness, winning

Bill Russell - 11x champ/5x MVP/12x AS/championships, winning, team-first

Wilt Chamberlain - 2x champ/4x MVP/13x AS/100 pt. game, domination

Magic Johnson - 5x champ/3x MVP/12x AS/creativity, versatility, leader

Larry Bird - 3x champ/3x MVP/12x AS/pure shooter, leader, clutch

Oscar Robertson - 1x champ/1x MVP/12x AS/triple double machine, first "big guard"

Kareem Abdul Jabbar - 6x champ/6x MVP/19x AS/the sky hook, all-time scoring leader

Shaquille O'Neal - 4x champ/1x MVP/15x AS/unstoppable down low, domination

Kobe Bryant - 5x champ/1x MVP/12x AS/killer instinct, dynamic scorer

Hakeem Olajuwon - 2x champ/1x MVP/12x AS/the Dream Shake, amazing athletic ability

Tim Duncan - 4x champ/2x MVP/12x AS/defense, consistency, humility, fundamental

The above breakdown only strengthens my definition of "greatness." With the exception of Robertson, each player on the list has multiple championships. Each player on this list has won at least one MVP. Each player on this list has been named to at LEAST 12 All-Star appearances. And finally, each player on the list has an "it" factor, whether it be their enormous drive to win, their ability to score and dominate games, or their ability to perform in crunch time. Before I continue, I know people will object to Robertson being on this list, as he is definitely the weakest, in terms of accolades, of the bunch. But you have to remember that he has just as many All-Star appearances as Larry Bird, as many MVPs as Shaq, Kobe, and Hakeem, he has one ring, he is the ONLY player in NBA history to average a triple-double over an entire season, and he revolutionized the point-guard position. If he's not in your top 10, he is in someone else's top 10, and deserves to be in the conversation at the very least.

These players are the greats of the game. They have set, and in some instances continue to set, the standard by which all future generations will be judged. So let's see how LeBron James measures up.

LeBron James - 0 championships/2x MVP/6x AS/amazing athletic ability, revolutionizing the point-forward position

Obviously, at this point, LeBron is nowhere near qualified to be on the all-time greats list. But he's only played seven full seasons in the league, and you figure he will play at least another seven years at an All-Star level. It also would be reasonable to predict that he will win another two MVP awards; his all-around numbers are so impressive and he will be playing the for awhile in the weaker Eastern conference on a winning team. That brings us to 4 MVPs and 13 All-Star appearances. Those two stats alone would fulfill the individual achievement criteria of greatness. And as I said earlier, he has the "it" factor. He might not have a YouTube archive's worth of buzzer beaters like MJ or Kobe, but you cannot deny that he has put together some big performances when his team has needed them, just ask the Pistons (and yes I admit he has choked in similar situations as well). But the "it" factor is more than just game-winning shots. Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem - those guys don't have multiple game-winners to their credit, but they still remain on the list. LeBron has "it," just a different "it" than Jordan or Kobe. And that's fine.

That brings us to championships. We all know LeBron has yet to win one. He went to the Finals once but was swept by Duncan and the Spurs. In order to make this list by the time his career ends, LeBron needs to win multiple championships. I think if he wins three, LeBron makes this list (assuming the rest of his individual accolades continue at the current pace). And I think LeBron knows this, and that's why he chose to join Wade and Bosh in Miami. Because going to Miami gives him the best chance to win those championships. The decision to go to Miami was fueled by a desire to win and a desire to create a legacy defined by championships. While I know you can never guarantee a championship because anything can happen in a given season, you cannot deny the fact that LeBron, Wade, and Bosh will be the most dominant trio in the NBA for the next five years. Anyone who makes that argument does so just to be a pain in the butt. Don't take that person seriously. LeBron and Wade are two of the top three players in the NBA (Kobe being the other). But the torch is passing quickly to these guys. I give Kobe another year before he is behind the other two in terms of potential to takeover a game. Bosh is a top 20 player in the NBA. And Miami recently showed us that they can surround these guys with decent role players. Now the only thing that needs to happen is the Heat need to learn to play together in a system that puts them in a position to succeed. And I think that will happen in due time.

So why is everyone hating on LeBron for his decision?

I admit that the decision making surrounding "The Decision" was absolutely horrid. LeBron's marketing team clearly has not taken Public Relations 101. And yes I know LeBron devastated the fans of Cleveland by leaving, and the way he did it was pretty brutal, but he had the right to do it. Cleveland is not entitled to his services in any way. He was a free agent and if anyone else was in his shoes they probably would have chosen to leave as well (more on this later). Again, it was a PR disaster. I get that. But in the grand scheme of things, does this misstep really matter? Is it a legacy defining blunder? No. And here's why:  Because winning is everything. At the end of the day, if you believe what the media, analysts, and players and coaches preach, championships matter and everything else is just decoration. If this isn't true, then why do our all-time greats lists never include Karl Malone or Charles Barkley? Malone won 2 MVPs, was selected to 13 All-Star games, is second in career points scored, and was one of the most dominant power forwards of all time. And Barkley won 1 MVP, was selected to 11 All-Star games, is considered perhaps the best rebounder of all time, and accomplished all this despite being undersized for his position (listed at 6 ft. 6 inches). Well, the reason why these two are omitted from most lists is because they combined to win ZERO championships. They failed to fulfill the first of my three criteria for greatness. People know and remember this about them and they place significant value on this shortcoming when discussing their career legacies. By choosing to join the Miami Heat, LeBron told us he does not want to be lumped in with the players that just fell short. He does not want to be another Malone or Barkley. And I respect that.

If LeBron stayed with the Cavaliers, I think he heading straight for Malone/Barkley territory. The Cavaliers consistently fell short in the playoffs, despite posting great regular season records. And while you can blame that on LeBron because he is the leader and two-time MVP, nobody can do the job alone. In fact, a glance at the rosters of each of the past six NBA finals champions reveals that a team needs at least two All-Star caliber guys on their roster in addition to quality role players. Let's take a look at some past examples.

2010 Lakers:  Kobe, Pau Gasol

2009 Lakers:  Kobe, Gasol

2008 Celtics:  Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett

2007 Spurs:  Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker

2006 Heat:  Dwyane Wade, Shaq

2005 Spurs:  Duncan, Ginobili, Parker

Did LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers teams have talent to rival those past champions? No. The best players the Cavs brought in to help LeBron was either Mo Williams or Antawn Jamison. Neither players are proven. Neither players are considered winners in the NBA circle. The Cavs never brought in a defensive stopper like the Lakers had in Artest, like the Celtics had in James Posey, like the Spurs had in Bruce Bowen, and like the Heat had in Posey. I honestly think LeBron would have rot away on that Cavs team, thereby creating a legacy of another great player to never win a championship (side note:  other players in danger of creating a similar legacy are Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, and Allen Iverson, all MVP winners and multiple time All-Stars without championships). All great players need help. So I don't buy the "LeBron couldn't do it by himself" argument. Of course he couldn't. Jordan couldn't! When Jordan and Bulls won their titles, Jordan had Pippen and Rodman by his side. Pippen is a Top 50 player of all time, and during his prime probably a top 5 player in the league. Rodman is one of the greatest rebounders of all time and a proven winner as his rings from Detroit evidence. Kobe had Shaq, another Top 10 player of all time on our list above. And while I understand there is a different between LeBron going to Miami versus Wade and Bosh going to Cleveland, maybe Miami is just a better organization to play for. I sure as hell think so.

So let's say this move gives LeBron three rings. In twenty years, when we are sitting around and evaluating LeBron's legacy, will you legitimately object to crowning him a Top 10 All-Time player because of his PR blunder? Are you saying that an off-the-court marketing mistake will cost him a spot among the league's icons? That would be a ridiculously short-sighted comment/opinion. Winning cures all. Ask Kobe Bryant. His image was completely tarnished after the sexual assault fiasco during the summer of 2003. Not only was this a PR nightmare, but it involved a very serious crime. Well, fast forward to 2010, two championships and one MVP later, and Bryant, based on his on-the-court achievements, is widely considered an all-time great. Winning cures all. And I expect nothing different for LeBron. Ultimately, it was a smart decision for an amazing athlete. Although there were sacrifices made along the way (he took a pay cut and alienated hometown fans), LeBron chose winning over everything else and paved his path to greatness.
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