On Saturday, the National League Championship Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies begins. The Giants enter as an upstart that has become a trendy pick to reach the World Series. Meanwhile, the boys on Broad Street look to continue their dominance by winning their third straight pennant. Let's take a look at the match up.
Schedule:
Game 1 - October 16, 2010 (at PHI)
Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
Game 2 - October 17, 2010 (at PHI)
Matt Cain vs. Roy Oswalt
Game 3 - October 19, 2010 (at SF)
Cole Hamels vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Game 4 - October 20, 2010 (at SF)
Pitching probables TBD
Game 5 - October 21, 2010 (at SF, if necessary)
Game 6 - October 23, 2010 (at PHI, if necessary)
Game 7 - October 24, 2010 (at PHI, if necessary)
Starting Pitching
To my recollection, no playoff series has ever pit such great pitching staffs against one another. The conversation must begin at the top with the teams' respective aces: Roy Halladay for the Phillies and Tim Lincecum for the Giants. Each of these workhorses has an arsenal of nasty pitches that makes opposing hitters look foolish. Each pitcher has incredible arm durability, mental fortitude, and the ability to dominate on any given night. In case you have not heard, they both threw absolute gems in their respective playoff debuts earlier this postseason; Lincecum threw a complete game two-hit shutout, with 14 strikeouts, against the Braves; and Halladay did something that only one pitcher in the history of Major League Baseball had ever done: pitch a no-hitter. These guys are good.
But the arms race does not end with them. As you can see above, Game 2 presents a Matt Cain versus Roy Oswalt duel. Cain pitched 6.2 innings of one-run (unearned) baseball against the Braves in his first playoff outing, while Oswalt served up a mild disappointment in allowing four runs (three earned) to the Reds in only five innings.That being said, Oswalt is a great pitcher and everyone in the ballpark will be expecting a great performance.
The pitching probables have been posted only through Game 3, which lists a Cole Hamels-Jonathan Sanchez showdown. After Hamels threw a complete game shutout with 9 strikeouts to close out a sweep of the Reds, it is safe to say that he is officially in beast mode. Although Hamels had well-documented struggles last year, do not forget that he was the 2008 NLCS MVP and the 2008 World Series MVP. It looks like he is back to that form, if not better. The Giants should be very scared. On the other hand, Sanchez is a young flamethrower and strikeout artist with the ability to nullify a great offense like the Phillies. However, at times this season he had issues with his control, and falling behind the count against this lineup could be dangerous.
Although the Game 4 probables have not been released/decided yet, we can always speculate. It would be a shock if either manager decided to send out his Game 1 starter to throw in Game 4 on only three full days of rest. However, it would make complete sense if Phillies manager Charlie Manuel gave Joe Blanton the nod and if Giants manager Bruce Bochy started his impressive rookie, Madison Bumgarner. If that were the matchup, I would easily give the edge to the Giants. I have followed Bumgarner's starts all season and the kid is the real deal (two runs allowed over six innings in the NLDS).
In sum, I love both of these rotations. I think the Phillies have a stronger and more outstanding staff because they boast two legitimate staff aces (Halladay and Hamels) and then a third guy who is the ace on at least half of the squads in baseball (Oswalt). The Giants, on the other hand, have more depth. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez is a great 1-2-3 combination and Bumgarner is an excellent fourth starter. However, I give the edge to the Phillies because of their awesome big three. In a seven game series, Halladay will certainly pitch twice and either Oswalt or Hamels will also pitch twice. It's tough to pick against that. Based on starting pitching matchups alone, the Phillies have a clear advantage, despite the fact that everyone in the media is trying to hype the Giants' staff up and put the two groups on equal footing.
Edge: Phillies
Relief Pitching
The matchup of the two bullpens is an interesting one because the numbers do not tell a full story. The Giants bullpen was absolutely terrific all season long. Most notably, closer Brian Wilson had a career season. While his appearance and his personality (video) gain a lot of attention, the Phillies should worry more about his arm; the enigmatic closer collected 48 saves this season (and 2 in the NLDS) while holding opponents to a .220 average and striking out 11.21 batters per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Phillies have had small issues closing out games all season long; Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson combined for 10 blown saves this season.
But what's most interesting is that the Giants superb bullpen struggled a bit versus the Braves in the NLDS, and because we're in the postseason, all regular season stats are effectively irrelevant. Atlanta got to both Ramon Ramirez and Sergio Romo, the latter of which gave up the towering game-winning home run to Rick Ankiel in Game 2. Add to that the fact that the Phillies, with their starting pitching dominance, may not need very many innings from their bullpen (they only need four innings in three games against the Reds), and suddenly the matchup gets intriguing; it all depends on which team's starting pitching can go deeper into games--and both staffs are completely capable of doing so.
Edge: Even
Offense
While the Phillies' bats took naps for weeks at a time throughout the regular season, it is difficult to ignore their superior talent. Top to bottom, their lineup looks like it belongs in the American League East. I don't need to review the accomplishments of the thumpers in the middle of the order, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. But Charlie Manuel has the luxury of surrounding those two cornerstones with more power (Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez), speed (Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins), and flexible players who can bunt, execute a hit-and-run, or even lift one out of the park (Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz). While another week of hibernation is certainly possible, I just don't see it happening. Not on this stage, especially when you consider their level of experience. In three games against the Reds, this lineup put up 13 runs, which is enough in any three-game stretch when you have Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels on the mound.
As for the Giants, I found myself surprised time and time again at their offensive prowess. Their lineup contains a couple of aging veterans who have had resurgent seasons (Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell), a sensational rookie catcher with immense power (Buster Posey), some guys who have had breakout seasons out of nowhere (Juan Uribe, Andres Torres), and important pieces that underperformed (Pablo Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez). In four games against the Bravos, they scored a total of 11 runs. But not all of those runs came from clean hits, or any hits for that matter. In Game 1, a blown call on a steal at second base led to the only run of the game and a Giants victory. Other than that, the offense was effectively shut down by Derek Lowe and company. Then in Game 3, the now infamous trifecta of errors by Braves second baseman Brooks Conrad led to two of the Giants' three runs. As you can see, the Giants' offense has been more lucky than good. And while a win is a win, it's tough to imagine that the offense catches similar breaks against a better and more experienced team like Philadelphia.
Edge: Phillies
Managing
The advantage here has to go to Charlie Manuel of the Phillies. While Bochy is a solid manager that accomplished a lot this season, Manuel is not only more experienced on the big stage, but has proven his value during a roller-coaster season in Philly. With the exception of Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth, every single starting position player had at least one stint on the disabled list, including three trips alone by former NL MVP Jimmy Rollins. The pitching staff also suffered numerous injuries, most notably to bullpen pieces like Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson and back-end starters like Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ (now with the Astros), and the ageless Jamie Moyer. Manuel dealt with a ton of adversity and still came out on top. If nothing else, his back-to-back trips to the World Series have to count for something.
Edge: Phillies
Series Outlook
I think the Giants are a solid team, but just not strong enough to dethrone the Phillies. Regardless of how some people think the starting pitching in this series is a wash, the top three for Philly, in my estimation, tilt the playing field. Even if you venture to say that Halladay and Lincecum cancel each other out, Oswalt and Hamels oust Cain and Sanchez in my book. Now add in the Phillies' decisive advantage on offense and a more experienced and proven manager. The result? A Phillies victory in six (6) games for a third straight trip to the World Series.
Series Outlook
I think the Giants are a solid team, but just not strong enough to dethrone the Phillies. Regardless of how some people think the starting pitching in this series is a wash, the top three for Philly, in my estimation, tilt the playing field. Even if you venture to say that Halladay and Lincecum cancel each other out, Oswalt and Hamels oust Cain and Sanchez in my book. Now add in the Phillies' decisive advantage on offense and a more experienced and proven manager. The result? A Phillies victory in six (6) games for a third straight trip to the World Series.
