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| Promotional image courtesy of UFC.com |
Main Event: B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar (c), Lightweight Championship Bout
For the first time in what seems like forever, B.J. Penn steps into the Octagon as the challenger in a Lightweight Championship fight. The Prodigy, coming off arguably the most disappointing performance of his career versus Frankie Edgar at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, looks to redeem himself and prove that he still has a tight stranglehold on the Lightweight division. Despite how poorly Penn fought in the loss to Edgar, I am confident that Penn can avenge the loss and regain his championship belt. But in order to that, Penn needs to learn from the first fight.
During the first contest, Penn simply did not fight his fight. Sure, one could attribute that to Edgar's energetic, tenacious, and up-tempo fighting style. Edgar, to his credit, pushed the pace of the fight and constantly tried to force Penn out of his comfort zone. But Penn is a mixed martial arts legend, and I believe that someone of his skill level can hold off Edgar's ferocity. Instead, Penn was content simply trying to out-box Edgar. And although The Prodigy did outscore Edgar in the striking category, his strikes did little damage and Edgar had clear control of the Octagon for the majority of the fight.
B.J. Penn is one of my favorite fighters (him and Georges St. Pierre are 1-2, and I am not sure of the order). The loss was particularly painful because it seemed like B.J. was waiting, and waiting, and waiting for his move…but never made it. I agree with the assessment that B.J. is a superior striker, but eventually you have to ditch the game plan and try something else. I was shocked that Penn did not try to take down Edgar and utilize his superior Brazilian jiujitsu abilities. In fact, Edgar managed to take B.J. down a couple times, which was even more shocking, despite the fact that Edgar does have above-average wrestling skills. But B.J. has shown in the past that he can dominate fighters on the ground (see Joe "Daddy" Stevenson). And if B.J. wants to rewrite the script tonight, he needs to take advantage of his strong ground game.
Finally, Penn cannot leave this bout in the hands of the judges. The decision at UFC 112 was very controversial for several reasons. First, many fans felt that Edgar did not dominate enough to earn the championship. There is a common belief that in any close championship fight, the judges should evaluate on the more conservative side and favor the champion. But judges have repeatedly shown that they are not afraid to award a challenger if they feel as though the challenger outworked the champion (another example: Forrest Griffin defeating Rampage Jackson). The decision was also controversial because of how decisively Edgar won. The verdict was unanimous despite many fans feeling that Penn at least won the first and second rounds and possibly the third. But ultimately, this only proves that Penn needs to go out tonight and fight to win by knockout, submission, or TKO. This time he is the challenger and he knows the feeling of being snake-bitten by the judges. The first time it happened you could blame the judges, but if it happens again, you can only blame B.J. Penn.
My fearless prediction: Penn def. Edgar via rear naked choke (Round 4)
Randy Couture vs. James Toney
Perhaps even more anticipated than the main event, some fans have billed Couture vs. Toney as "MMA vs. Boxing." While I think that label is completely unfair, I do admit that I look forward to this fight. We will NEVER be able to truly compare mixed martial arts to boxing inside a ring because the definitions of the two sports are mutually exclusive. By stepping into the Octagon tonight after having trained in mixed martial arts for the past six to eight months, James Toney has transformed himself, albeit rudimentarily, into a mixed martial artist. As a result, tonight's matchup no longer pits a mixed martial artist versus a boxer, but rather a seasoned mixed martial artist versus an amateur mixed martial artist with a mastery of boxing. Perhaps I should spend an entirely separate post related to this topic.
Regardless, I expect Couture to severely overwhelm Toney tonight. This fight is akin to a basketball trick shot expert/professional H-O-R-S-E player challenging an NBA player to a game of one-on-one hoops. Nobody doubts Toney's ability to box just as nobody doubts the trick shot expert's ability to sink ridiculous shots. But boxing is only one aspect of mixed martial arts just as shooting is only one aspect of a one-on-one basketball showdown. Can Toney defend Couture's take down and submission attempts? Can Toney prevent Couture from passing from half guard to mount? Likewise, how will a trick shot expert defend an NBA star in the low post? And how will he adjust to having to shoot over the NBA star's extended arms? Despite Toney's training leading up to this fight, he is dealing with a completely different animal. To be fair, I believe that if Couture were thrown into the boxing ring with Toney, the dynamics of the matchup would be much different and probably result in a Toney victory. But for tonight, it's a mixed martial arts fight in the Octagon. And that means Couture has a huge advantage.
My fearless prediction: Couture def. Toney via ground and pound (Round 1)
Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
I like both of these fighters and I think this will be an exciting fight. Florian is a great fighter who is skilled and relentless. Maynard is a dangerous wrestler with incredible strength. I think Florian wins because of his experience. He will rely on his Octagon-savvy and heart to suck the life out of Maynard.
My fearless prediction: Florian def. Maynard via triangle choke (Round 3)
Other fight predictions:
Demian Maia def. Mario Miranda
Nate Diaz def. Marcus Davis
Joe Lauzon def. Gabe Ruediger
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