Blast from the Past: The Implications of Randy Moss' Return to Minnesota

In a matter of hours, rumors became stories became press releases, and just like that, the Randy Moss era in New England came to end. After experiencing just over three seasons of his pass-catching services and accompanying prima donna routine, the Patriots decided that enough is enough and traded the star wide receiver, along with a seventh-round draft pick in 2012, to the reeling Minnesota Vikings, in exchange for a third-round pick in next year's draft. While the off-the-field story lines of this transaction are intriguing, let's take a look at how the move impacts the two teams and their players on the field.

Vikings Offense

From an overall production standpoint, Moss' presence will only help the Vikings offense. Currently, the Vikings have excelled on the ground on the shoulders of star running back Adrian Peterson. Through the first four weeks of the season, Minnesota ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 143.3. But it's not like the Vikings aren't trying to throw the ball; quarterback Brett Favre attempted 27, 36, and 34 passes in the first three games. But the results have left something to be desired. Specifically, the Vikings simply cannot stretch the field. They currently rank 24th overall in passing yards per game at 185.0, and Favre averages a paltry 6.16 yards per pass attempt. Their inability to stretch the field is most evident by the fact that Favre's longest completion on the season thus far has been 33 yards, done twice. Moss' ability to catch passes downfield should help the Vikings increase their passing yards per game and help them approach last year's average of 259.8 yards per contest.

Brett Favre

The Moss acquisition immediately boosts Favre's stock on the field and in fantasy football. Favre has been incredibly disappointing so far this season; the aging quarterback has only thrown 2 touchdowns while tossing 6 interceptions. His failure to put up big passing numbers results directly from his lack of receiving options on the field; we all know about star wideout Sidney Rice's injury, but add to that Percy Harvin's health issues and you have a recipe for receiving disaster. As a result, Favre has had to rely extra on tight end Visanthe Shiacoe, who leads the team in receiving yards, and Peterson out of the backfield. Anytime a defense only has to focus on the tight end and running back, it makes the quarterback's job a lot tougher. Moss' ability to stretch the field, attract defenders, and make spectacular catches will immediately help Favre. For the sake of Vikings fans and Favre's fantasy owners, let's hope #4 gets back on track.

Adrian Peterson

Moss will help the VIkings run game by forcing their opponents to play more defensive backs and play less guys in the box. Like I said earlier, right now the only thing that the Vikings can do correctly on offense is run the football. Peterson is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has had back-to-back games with over 140 total rushing yards. It is safe to say that teams in the NFL usually make adjustments and probably would have--if not already--stacked the box against Peterson. However, adding Moss to the receiving corps establishes a deep threat, even as a decoy, and prevents defenses from cheating up on the run. This means that Peterson will see less traffic around the line of scrimmage, at least pre-snap.

Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe

Harvin will probably benefit the most of any Vikings player not named Favre. Because of Moss' skill and reputation, he warrants coverage by an opposing team's number one cornerback. This will allow Harvin to work on lesser corners. While Harvin is a deep threat like Moss, he is also a playmaker who is most effective when he has the ball in the open field. Because of this, the Vikings should utilize Harvin much like the Pats used Wes Welker when Welker and Moss shared the same field; that is, run Harvin on plenty of underneath routes, make him a possession receiver, and get him the ball quickly and in open space. Harvin will no longer have to line up wide and can now return to the slot where he is more comfortable.

As for Shiancoe, he is probably letting loose a huge sigh of relief because it is unbelievably taxing for a tight end to have the pressure of being an offense's number one receiving target. Moss' presence will give Shiancoe better matchups and also allow him to focus more of his energy on run and pass-blocking in the events that they ask him to do that.

Patriots Offense

Obviously, any time you lose someone of Moss' caliber, it hurts. The Patriots, at least at the current moment, don't look like they have a natural replacement for Moss (despite the Vincent Jackson rumors viciously swirling around the league). Welker clearly becomes the number one target in the passing game, which will not only burden him with pressure, but may also force him to change his game a bit. Other Patriots wide receivers, and their talented tight ends, will have to step up. You probably have not heard of any of them, but you can safely bet that one of them will become a household name by the end of this season; the candidates are tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and wide receivers Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, and Matthew Slater. So far this season it has been Hernandez who has surprised many with his performance (18 catches for 240 yards through four games). I don't expect the Pats to change their game plan much, but you'll probably see a nice number of two-tight end sets.

Tom Brady

I really hope this trade does not diminish Brady's fantasy value. The important thing to remember is that Brady and coach Brian Belichick have perfected a passing system that does not require a star receiver. Brady has been a star quarterback for the past decade, and here are his top receivers, by number of catches, for each of the seasons prior to Moss' arrival in New England:

2001: Troy Brown, David Patten, Terry Glenn
2002: Brown, Patten, Deion Branch
2003: Branch, Givens, Brown
2004: Givens, Patten, Branch
2005: Branch, Givens, Brown
2006: Reche Caldwell, Benjamin Watson, Brown

For the record, the above players have a combined two (2) Pro Bowl appearances. Not exactly a star-studded receiving cast. Yet, Brady is consistently one of the top passers in the game. The reason? Because Belichick knows how to use the talent that he has, in the system that he has created, to win games. And I expect no different in the post-Moss era.

Playoff Picture

For the Vikings, this move looked like one of desperation. They lost two consecutive tough games to start the season and then salvaged a victory against the Lions at home. At 1-2, they currently sit in third place in the division behind the trendy Super Bowl pick Green Bay Packers and the surprising Chicago Bears. Oh, and they have a brutal three games ahead playing the Jets on the road, Dallas at home, and the Packers at Lambeau. If they have any shot at a Wild Card spot, they need to win at least two of those games. And if an ailing Favre had no deep threat to throw to, that simply was not going to happen. Enter Randy Moss and things suddenly change. If the Favre, Moss, and the rest of the offense can work out their bugs and somehow come away with a victory against the Jets, then I suddenly like the Vikings playoff chances a lot more than I previously did. The team's defense will keep them around this season, so it will be on the offense to hold up its end of the bargain.

For the Patriots, barring a V-Jack acquisition, this is probably the equivalent of waving a white flag. Although they are off to a nice 3-1 start, I highly doubt they can wrestle the division away from the Jets, even if they had Moss for the rest of the season. Miami, despite getting hammered by the Pats, will remain a player all season long. And with the AFC being so deep this season, I don't think the Pats can legitimately grab a Wild Card spot. By trading Moss, the Pats have now secured themselves two picks in each of the four rounds of next season's NFL Draft. Choose wisely, boys, because you have a lot of rebuilding to do.