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| Bringing the House illustration |
With the start of the World Series just days away, Bringing the House will dissect the keys to each team winning the title. First up: the San Francisco Giants.
1. Limit Josh Hamilton
Hamilton, my pick for the American League MVP, had a quiet division series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. He finished that round 2-for-18 (.111 average) and only drove in one run. Just when everyone began to wonder whether Hamilton's late-season rib injury was simply too much to overcome, the star outfielder silenced all critics by delivering an MVP-worthy series against the Yankees. In Game 1, Hamilton started the game with a 3-run shot off of Yankees ace CC Sabathia to jump start the Rangers and send Arlington into a frenzy. In Game 3, Hamilton again ignited the offense by sending an Andy Pettitte offering into the bleachers for another first-inning home run. The next night, in pivotal Game 4, Hamilton hit two home runs to lead the Rangers to a 10-3 blowout. Hamilton seemed to have found his groove as he finished the American League Championship Series 7-for-20 (.350) with 4 home runs and 7 runs batted in. And just for fun, he also stole three bases.
I doubt the Giants followed the Rangers much throughout the regular season; the two teams are obviously in different leagues and San Francisco was occupied by an intense NL West race with the Padres and Rockies all season long. But as the number of remaining teams in the playoffs dwindled down, I would be surprised if the Giants had not caught the Rangers and their dismantling of the Yankees. And if they did in fact catch any of those games, they would have concluded, among other things, that Josh Hamilton is the single most important factor in the Rangers' success. How, then, do the Giants stop him?
Besides praying that Hamilton falls into a slump like he did against Tampa, there are two main ways to at least contain him. First, you could pitch around him or intentionally walk him like the Yankees did in the ALCS. The Yankees walked Hamilton a total of eight (8) times in the series. In Game 2, Hamilton went 0-1 with 4 walks, but the Rangers won in decisive fashion. Then in Game 6, Hamilton walked another 3 times, yet the Rangers still won and closed out the series. The Yankees took the bat out of Hamilton's hands, yet they still got pounded. Did the strategy backfire? No, not exactly.
The key to pitching around a player is to get the next guy out. Every great hitter in this league has another strong hitter behind him to "protect" him. That player's job is to punish the opposing team for walking the star batter. For most of the season and the entire playoffs, Vladimir Guerrero had the duty of protecting Hamilton. Let's take a look at how successful the Yankees were in getting Guerrero out after they had walked Hamilton.
Game 1 (bottom of the 3rd): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 1st): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 2nd): Guerrero grounded out
Game 2 (bottom of the 4th): Guerrero lined into double play
Game 2 (bottom of the 8th): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 6 (bottom of the 3rd): Guerrero popped out
Game 6 (bottom of the 5th): Guerrero hit 2-run double
Game 6 (bottom of the 7th): Guerrero grounded out
Minus one hanging curveball from Phil Hughes in Game 6, the Yankees were able to retire Guerrero after they had walked Hamilton. The strategy, for the most part, worked very well. The damage in Games 2 and 6 were done long before Hamilton even stepped up to the plate. While the Giants have better starting pitching top to bottom than the Yankees do, there will be times during games (i.e. first base is open with two outs) when you would rather pitch to Guerrero than Hamilton. And if they do decide to give a pass to Hamilton, they need to make sure to get Vlad out.
In the event that the Giants pitchers want to go after Hamilton, they need to focus on getting ahead in the count with early strikes. You obviously want to get ahead of every batter you face, but Hamilton more so than others. For him, one strike makes a world of difference. Check out the following splits that detail Hamilton's batting average based on various ball and strike counts:
Count 0-0: .398
Count 0-1: .383
Count 0-2: .128
Count 1-0: .404
Count 1-1: .392
Count 1-2: .247
Count 2-0: .500
Count 2-1: .528
Count 2-2: .358
Count 3-0: .500
Count 3-1: .636
Count 3-2: .302
As you can see, his godly numbers comes back down to Earth once you get two strikes on him (with the exception of 2-2 counts). So the key will be to get ahead in the count and then work outside of the zone with nasty breaking pitches, which happens to be Tim Lincecum's general approach. As a general rule of thumb, just treat him like everyone treated Barry Bonds (at-bat) in his prime; San Francisco should know all about that.
2. Patrol the Bases
The Rangers and Giants are polar opposites when it comes to speed. Texas finished 7th in all of baseball 123 stolen bases on the season, whereas San Francisco finished dead last with only 55 swipes. The Giants have not seen the type of speed Texas possess mainly because the AL is simply a faster league than the NL. The American League teams that have the speed make it a point to use it, and when they do, it can dramatically affect a game.
In Game 2 of the ALCS, Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus used his speed to wreak havoc against the Yankees in the first inning. First, Andrus reached on an infield single after beating out a dribble to Derek Jeter. Starting pitcher Phil Hughes then threw a wild pitch, which Andrus took advantage of by moving to second. After Michael Young struck out, Andrus stole third against the feeble-armed Jorge Posada. Two batters later, Andrus and Josh Hamilton orchestrated a beautiful double-steal and Andrus came across the plate for the game's first score. So in one inning, the Rangers manufactured a huge run without ever hitting the ball out of the infield; sounds like a luxury that may come in handy against the tough pitching of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner.
To defend the Rangers' speed, the Giants will really need to buckle down. It starts with making sure that the Rangers' top speed guys don't get on base. Andrus is far and away their fastest player, but Nelson Cruz, Julio Borbon, Ian Kinsler, and David Murphy all recorded double-digit stolen base totals this season. When those runners do get on base, San Francisco pitchers need to mix up how long they hold the ball before going to the plate and make sure they execute effective slide-steps. As good as all that sounds on paper, however, it may be irrelevant. The Giants had trouble with opposing base runners all season en route to allowing a 9th-most 115 steals. In the NLCS, the Giants gave up seven (7) steals to the Phillies while only throwing them out once. The Rangers have a clear advantage in this aspect of the game.
3. Win One Game Against Cliff Lee
No team has ever defeated Lee in the playoffs. Last year, Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings in the playoffs. This postseason? More of the same. Check out what Lee has done in three starts thus far:
ALDS, Game 1 vs. TB: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (Win)
ALDS, Game 5 vs. TB: 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (Win)
ALCS, Game 3 vs. NY: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K (Win)
Stop it, Cliff. That's just not fair. In fact, not only is it unfair, but it's unheard of: Lee became the first pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out 10 or more batters three times in a single postseason. Current Rangers owner Nolan Ryan (ever heard of him?) even said, "[Lee is] the most consistent pitcher I've ever seen." Quite the compliment considering the source.
We can ogle over Lee's stats for days, but my point is this: If the Giants want to win their first World Series since moving to San Francisco in 1958, they will need to defeat the Rangers in at least one game in which Lee starts. They don't have to knock Lee around with a handful of home runs or double-digit hits. Heck, they don't even have to get a single run off of him. But they have to win that game somehow, whether on a blown call or via late-inning heroics at the expense of Texas' bullpen. They just can't afford to chalk up two games as losses in this series simply because Lee is listed as the probable starter that night. And while opposing Lee with Lincecum boosts your chances, the burden ultimately rests on the offense.
4a. Can Cody Ross Continue His Magic?
Unless you are a Florida Marlins fan or followed fantasy baseball closely, you probably had never heard of Cody Ross before this postseason (and I suppose unless you are a Giants fan, Phillies supporter, or sports blogger, you still haven't). But Ross burst onto the stage in dramatic fashion over the past three weeks by providing a bulk of San Francisco's offense and some timely hits. In 34 at-bats, Ross has 11 hits (a .324 average), including 4 doubles and 4 home runs, with 8 RBIs. The Giants batters have recorded 27 RBIs this postseason, which means that Ross has nearly one-third of those. Sometimes the big stage brings out the best in players; sometimes people get hot at the right time. I think this is a combination of the two. But will he carry the momentum into the World Series where the pressure is exponentially greater? If the Giants are to win, he has no choice.
4b. Which Batter Will Step Up?
In the event that Ross' bat cools off, who will pick up the slack? This is his first postseason appearance and he is absolutely obliterating his career averages in the major statistical categories. He is nearly 60 points above his career batting average, over 70 points above his career on-base percentage, and over 300 points above his career slugging percentage. He is not just hot, he is onsteroids fire. But all good things come to an end, and if this ride happens to end before the start of, or during, the World Series, to whom will the Giants look?
The ugly truth is that the Giants are not built for high-scoring affairs. The Giants have only one player who hit over .300 during the regular season (Buster Posey, .305). The Rangers, on the other hand, had three players, including the league's batting champion. The Rangers scored nearly 100 more runs in the regular season than the Giants did. And so far this postseason, the Rangers have six players who are slugging above .400 (including Cruz at .875), whereas the Giants only have three. Although the Giants do not want to engage in any slugfests with the Rangers, eventually they will have to outscore the Rangers to win the series. Someone besides Ross will need to play big.
5. Unleash The Beard
The Brian Wilson Bandwagon is more packed than ever. The charismatic closer has not only gained a huge following because of his infectious personality, but also because of his lights-out pitching. In 9.0 innings this postseason, The Beard has allowed only 4 hits without surrendering a run, and he struck out 12 in the process. Although he sometimes makes ninth innings exciting excruciating, he gets the job done at the end of day--just ask the Phillies. The 3-2 curveball that he threw to freeze Ryan Howard was the biggest pitch of Wilson's life to date, and it was downright nasty.
Wilson will be very important for the Giants because the Rangers have feasted on late-inning pitching so far this postseason. Specifically, the Rangers have piled on runs in the ninth inning of games, killing any chance of an opponent's comeback and taking all air out of opposing stadiums. In the ALCS versus the Yankees, the Rangers scored nine (9) ninth-inning runs. And while none of those runs were scored off Mariano Rivera (i.e. the closer), you won't win if you can't stop a team late in the game. The Beard has great stuff and he will need to bring it if he wants to shut down a potent Rangers offense.
Hamilton, my pick for the American League MVP, had a quiet division series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. He finished that round 2-for-18 (.111 average) and only drove in one run. Just when everyone began to wonder whether Hamilton's late-season rib injury was simply too much to overcome, the star outfielder silenced all critics by delivering an MVP-worthy series against the Yankees. In Game 1, Hamilton started the game with a 3-run shot off of Yankees ace CC Sabathia to jump start the Rangers and send Arlington into a frenzy. In Game 3, Hamilton again ignited the offense by sending an Andy Pettitte offering into the bleachers for another first-inning home run. The next night, in pivotal Game 4, Hamilton hit two home runs to lead the Rangers to a 10-3 blowout. Hamilton seemed to have found his groove as he finished the American League Championship Series 7-for-20 (.350) with 4 home runs and 7 runs batted in. And just for fun, he also stole three bases.
I doubt the Giants followed the Rangers much throughout the regular season; the two teams are obviously in different leagues and San Francisco was occupied by an intense NL West race with the Padres and Rockies all season long. But as the number of remaining teams in the playoffs dwindled down, I would be surprised if the Giants had not caught the Rangers and their dismantling of the Yankees. And if they did in fact catch any of those games, they would have concluded, among other things, that Josh Hamilton is the single most important factor in the Rangers' success. How, then, do the Giants stop him?
Besides praying that Hamilton falls into a slump like he did against Tampa, there are two main ways to at least contain him. First, you could pitch around him or intentionally walk him like the Yankees did in the ALCS. The Yankees walked Hamilton a total of eight (8) times in the series. In Game 2, Hamilton went 0-1 with 4 walks, but the Rangers won in decisive fashion. Then in Game 6, Hamilton walked another 3 times, yet the Rangers still won and closed out the series. The Yankees took the bat out of Hamilton's hands, yet they still got pounded. Did the strategy backfire? No, not exactly.
The key to pitching around a player is to get the next guy out. Every great hitter in this league has another strong hitter behind him to "protect" him. That player's job is to punish the opposing team for walking the star batter. For most of the season and the entire playoffs, Vladimir Guerrero had the duty of protecting Hamilton. Let's take a look at how successful the Yankees were in getting Guerrero out after they had walked Hamilton.
Game 1 (bottom of the 3rd): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 1st): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 2 (bottom of the 2nd): Guerrero grounded out
Game 2 (bottom of the 4th): Guerrero lined into double play
Game 2 (bottom of the 8th): Guerrero struck out swinging
Game 6 (bottom of the 3rd): Guerrero popped out
Game 6 (bottom of the 5th): Guerrero hit 2-run double
Game 6 (bottom of the 7th): Guerrero grounded out
Minus one hanging curveball from Phil Hughes in Game 6, the Yankees were able to retire Guerrero after they had walked Hamilton. The strategy, for the most part, worked very well. The damage in Games 2 and 6 were done long before Hamilton even stepped up to the plate. While the Giants have better starting pitching top to bottom than the Yankees do, there will be times during games (i.e. first base is open with two outs) when you would rather pitch to Guerrero than Hamilton. And if they do decide to give a pass to Hamilton, they need to make sure to get Vlad out.
In the event that the Giants pitchers want to go after Hamilton, they need to focus on getting ahead in the count with early strikes. You obviously want to get ahead of every batter you face, but Hamilton more so than others. For him, one strike makes a world of difference. Check out the following splits that detail Hamilton's batting average based on various ball and strike counts:
Count 0-0: .398
Count 0-1: .383
Count 0-2: .128
Count 1-0: .404
Count 1-1: .392
Count 1-2: .247
Count 2-0: .500
Count 2-1: .528
Count 2-2: .358
Count 3-0: .500
Count 3-1: .636
Count 3-2: .302
As you can see, his godly numbers comes back down to Earth once you get two strikes on him (with the exception of 2-2 counts). So the key will be to get ahead in the count and then work outside of the zone with nasty breaking pitches, which happens to be Tim Lincecum's general approach. As a general rule of thumb, just treat him like everyone treated Barry Bonds (at-bat) in his prime; San Francisco should know all about that.
2. Patrol the Bases
The Rangers and Giants are polar opposites when it comes to speed. Texas finished 7th in all of baseball 123 stolen bases on the season, whereas San Francisco finished dead last with only 55 swipes. The Giants have not seen the type of speed Texas possess mainly because the AL is simply a faster league than the NL. The American League teams that have the speed make it a point to use it, and when they do, it can dramatically affect a game.
In Game 2 of the ALCS, Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus used his speed to wreak havoc against the Yankees in the first inning. First, Andrus reached on an infield single after beating out a dribble to Derek Jeter. Starting pitcher Phil Hughes then threw a wild pitch, which Andrus took advantage of by moving to second. After Michael Young struck out, Andrus stole third against the feeble-armed Jorge Posada. Two batters later, Andrus and Josh Hamilton orchestrated a beautiful double-steal and Andrus came across the plate for the game's first score. So in one inning, the Rangers manufactured a huge run without ever hitting the ball out of the infield; sounds like a luxury that may come in handy against the tough pitching of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner.
To defend the Rangers' speed, the Giants will really need to buckle down. It starts with making sure that the Rangers' top speed guys don't get on base. Andrus is far and away their fastest player, but Nelson Cruz, Julio Borbon, Ian Kinsler, and David Murphy all recorded double-digit stolen base totals this season. When those runners do get on base, San Francisco pitchers need to mix up how long they hold the ball before going to the plate and make sure they execute effective slide-steps. As good as all that sounds on paper, however, it may be irrelevant. The Giants had trouble with opposing base runners all season en route to allowing a 9th-most 115 steals. In the NLCS, the Giants gave up seven (7) steals to the Phillies while only throwing them out once. The Rangers have a clear advantage in this aspect of the game.
3. Win One Game Against Cliff Lee
No team has ever defeated Lee in the playoffs. Last year, Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings in the playoffs. This postseason? More of the same. Check out what Lee has done in three starts thus far:
ALDS, Game 1 vs. TB: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (Win)
ALDS, Game 5 vs. TB: 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (Win)
ALCS, Game 3 vs. NY: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K (Win)
Stop it, Cliff. That's just not fair. In fact, not only is it unfair, but it's unheard of: Lee became the first pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out 10 or more batters three times in a single postseason. Current Rangers owner Nolan Ryan (ever heard of him?) even said, "[Lee is] the most consistent pitcher I've ever seen." Quite the compliment considering the source.
We can ogle over Lee's stats for days, but my point is this: If the Giants want to win their first World Series since moving to San Francisco in 1958, they will need to defeat the Rangers in at least one game in which Lee starts. They don't have to knock Lee around with a handful of home runs or double-digit hits. Heck, they don't even have to get a single run off of him. But they have to win that game somehow, whether on a blown call or via late-inning heroics at the expense of Texas' bullpen. They just can't afford to chalk up two games as losses in this series simply because Lee is listed as the probable starter that night. And while opposing Lee with Lincecum boosts your chances, the burden ultimately rests on the offense.
4a. Can Cody Ross Continue His Magic?
Unless you are a Florida Marlins fan or followed fantasy baseball closely, you probably had never heard of Cody Ross before this postseason (and I suppose unless you are a Giants fan, Phillies supporter, or sports blogger, you still haven't). But Ross burst onto the stage in dramatic fashion over the past three weeks by providing a bulk of San Francisco's offense and some timely hits. In 34 at-bats, Ross has 11 hits (a .324 average), including 4 doubles and 4 home runs, with 8 RBIs. The Giants batters have recorded 27 RBIs this postseason, which means that Ross has nearly one-third of those. Sometimes the big stage brings out the best in players; sometimes people get hot at the right time. I think this is a combination of the two. But will he carry the momentum into the World Series where the pressure is exponentially greater? If the Giants are to win, he has no choice.
4b. Which Batter Will Step Up?
In the event that Ross' bat cools off, who will pick up the slack? This is his first postseason appearance and he is absolutely obliterating his career averages in the major statistical categories. He is nearly 60 points above his career batting average, over 70 points above his career on-base percentage, and over 300 points above his career slugging percentage. He is not just hot, he is on
The ugly truth is that the Giants are not built for high-scoring affairs. The Giants have only one player who hit over .300 during the regular season (Buster Posey, .305). The Rangers, on the other hand, had three players, including the league's batting champion. The Rangers scored nearly 100 more runs in the regular season than the Giants did. And so far this postseason, the Rangers have six players who are slugging above .400 (including Cruz at .875), whereas the Giants only have three. Although the Giants do not want to engage in any slugfests with the Rangers, eventually they will have to outscore the Rangers to win the series. Someone besides Ross will need to play big.
5. Unleash The Beard
The Brian Wilson Bandwagon is more packed than ever. The charismatic closer has not only gained a huge following because of his infectious personality, but also because of his lights-out pitching. In 9.0 innings this postseason, The Beard has allowed only 4 hits without surrendering a run, and he struck out 12 in the process. Although he sometimes makes ninth innings exciting excruciating, he gets the job done at the end of day--just ask the Phillies. The 3-2 curveball that he threw to freeze Ryan Howard was the biggest pitch of Wilson's life to date, and it was downright nasty.
Wilson will be very important for the Giants because the Rangers have feasted on late-inning pitching so far this postseason. Specifically, the Rangers have piled on runs in the ninth inning of games, killing any chance of an opponent's comeback and taking all air out of opposing stadiums. In the ALCS versus the Yankees, the Rangers scored nine (9) ninth-inning runs. And while none of those runs were scored off Mariano Rivera (i.e. the closer), you won't win if you can't stop a team late in the game. The Beard has great stuff and he will need to bring it if he wants to shut down a potent Rangers offense.
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