Thursday, October 14

NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  50-32
Division Finish:  1st
Playoffs:  Lost in NBA Finals

Key Additions: 
Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Delonte West

The Celtics brought in both O'Neals to help shore up a depleted front court. Starting center Kendrick Perkins will be out until February in order to recover from offseason ACL surgery, so the onus of protecting the paint and hitting the boards will fall on these two in addition to KG and Big Baby. Both of the O'Neals are veterans who have a lot of tread on their tires, so it will be interesting to see how they hold up throughout the season. Luckily for them, they can split time, and once Perkins does come back, they can share backup duty. Both of them still have enough talent to contribute meaningful minutes on a deep team, and I don't see any reason why they cannot succeed in Boston.

Shaq begins yet another quest for his fifth championship ring. Previous stints on contending teams in Phoenix and Cleveland did not work, so perhaps this will be the big fella's last stop.

For Delonte West, this represents a chance for a fresh start. He ended his tenure in Cleveland with some pretty unique rumors swirling about. And although West is not a legitimate starting shooting guard on a playoff team, he is a solid backup option at either point or SG.

Key Losses:  Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen

Wallace and the "other Allen" are not very big losses. In fact, I think the Celtics did some addition by subtraction in letting these two go. Despite Sheed's efforts for redemption in the playoffs, he was a constant distraction because of his underperformance and apparent apathy. As a veteran, he failed to lead by example, and no championship team can afford such behavior.

As for Tony Allen, while he did provide a nice boost of energy off the bench for the C's, and while he took the majority of the responsibility in defending Kobe Bryant in their showdowns with the Lakers, is completely replaceable. His offensive skills left quite a lot to be desired, and he was not a good enough defender to earn "shutdown" status.

Most Important Player:  Rajon Rondo

The Celtics' star point guard enters his fifth season in the league and he figures to only get better. He has made tremendous progress in recent years and is officially considered one of the game's elite point guards. Last season, it was clear that the team no longer belonged to the Big 3, but instead it belonged to Rondo. As Rajon went, the Celtics went. And this season figures to be no different because the Big 3 has only gotten older and slower. While his free throw and three-point shooting both make Celtics fans cringe, his role in that offense is unlike many others in the NBA. If the Celtics return to the NBA Finals this season, it will be because Rondo had an MVP-caliber season.

Rookie Spotlight:
  Avery Bradley

While the addition of Luke Harangody is nice because he adds even more front court depth for the C's, Avery Bradley looks like an even better addition. Like I said above, the Celtics really are not sure what they will get from Delonte West. If the West acquisition fizzles, that leaves the Celts with only Nate Robinson to spell Rondo of major ball-handling duties. Bradley gives them one more ball-handler and someone who has the ability to defend at a high level.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:
  1st

I do not think that the Celtics will get back to the NBA Finals, but that being said, they are still near the top of the Eastern Conference and will certainly finish in first place in the Atlantic Division. In breezing through the division, however, I think the Celtics may give fans a false sense of security. The Celtics are only getting older, and although Rondo is a franchise point guard, he is not good enough to be the first scoring option on a major contender. Any season now, the Celtics will need to look at drafting/acquiring some young, go-to scorers to whom Pierce, Allen, and Garnett can pass the torch.

New York Knicks

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  29-53
Division Finish:  3rd
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Amare Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph

Everyone already knows about the Stoudemire signing because it was the first major move of a historic summer in the NBA. The move not only gives the Knicks a clear number-one scoring option, but also reunites Amare with his former Phoenix Suns head coach, Mike D'Antoni.

Although neither Felton nor Randolph are All-Star level players at this point in their careers, this may be the right fit, in terms of offensive system, for each of them. Everyone saw Felton direct a high-octane offense during his years in college at North Carolina, and he was very limited under his previous systems in Charlotte. Meanwhile, Randolph may be the most versatile athlete in the entire league, and D'Antoni will find a way to utilize him. The sky is the limit for Randolph, who has averaged 11.0 points, nearly 8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, and 1 steal in just 25.1 minutes over 30 career starts.

Key Losses:
  David Lee

Lee leaves New York after a solid five years of service that culminated in his first All-Star appearance last season. The 6'9" center posted very impressive numbers for being undersized at his position:  20.2 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 59.6 FG%, and 81.5 FT%. Lee moves on to Golden State where he will likely put up similar numbers next season. The loss leaves New York with some holes defensively, mainly in the rebounding area. Lee was a machine on the boards, and although Amare collects his fair share, he does not have quite the same dedication to the glass as Lee. The Knicks will rely on Ronny Turiaf to fill the void left by Lee, but this will be Turiaf's first season as a starter in the league. The Knicks can only hope that he is able to keep his trademark energy level and his production up for at least 30 minutes per game.

Most Important Player: 
Danilo Gallinari

The Knicks have a lot of nice pieces in place for D'Antoni to use in his prolific offense. But the most critical component has to be Gallinari, the third-year player out of Italy. Nicknamed "The Rooster," Gallinari showed tremendous improvement last season as he posted the following averages:  15.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 81.8 FT%, and 38.1 3P%. At 6'10", Gallinari finished second in the entire NBA with 186 3-point field goals made. He is a marksman from deep and his size presents ridiculous mismatches. An inside-out game involving him and Stoudemire is something that I envision for the Knicks in half-court sets, however rare those might be.

Rookie Spotlight:  Timofey Mosgov

The 7'1" giant from Russia may be a key piece not the defensive end. Stoudemire's defensive lapses are well-known. Turiaf is in his first season as a starting center. And, as stated above, the team's most reliable rebounder for the past four seasons, David Lee, is now in Golden State. Mosgov obviously has special size, and if he can give D'Antoni good energy, solid low post defense, and a commitment to rebounding, that would be terrific.

2010-2011 Division Outlook:  2nd

The Knicks are one of my sleeper teams this season. Not only do I think they take second in the Atlantic Division, but I also think they make the playoffs and surprise a lot of people. I realize that D'Antoni's first two seasons in the Big Apple were frustrating for New York fans. But last season the offense made some big strides--second in the NBA in three-point field goals, ninth in the NBA in scoring. But perhaps most importantly, D'Antoni had the opportunity to replace existing pieces with new ones that would better fit his system. He brought in a more-than-capable point guard (Felton) to run his show , some great athletes to run the wings (Kelenna Azubuike, Toney Douglas), and some athletic big men to create mismatches (Stoudemire, Randolph). Add to that list an emerging star, Gallinari, and suddenly the Knicks look like a very dangerous team.

Philadelphia 76ers

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  27-55
Division Finish:  4th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Spencer Hawes

If Hawes is your biggest offseason acquisition, you're either a contender just looking to shore up your bench or you're a cellar dweller trying to convince yourself that Hawes is a franchise center. In the 76ers' case, it's definitely the latter. To be frank, Hawes has been a solid contributor for his first three seasons in the league. Last season he averaged 10 points and 6 boards with 1 block in just over 26 minutes per game. If he gets the minutes and stays away from injuries, I could see Hawes averaging a double-double and being a solid starting center. For whatever reason, most likely monetary, the Kings felt that giving Hawes away for Dalembert was a good move. I definitely think the Kings got the better end of the deal simply because of Hawes' youth and his raw offensive talent. Remember, coming out of high school, everyone thought Hawes was the next big thing. Can he build on his success so far in the City of Brotherly Love? Well, having Elton Brand in the paint to take some pressure off of him will certainly help. But Hawes' main responsibility will be rebounding and defending the rim, two things he is certainly capable of doing.

Key Losses:  Samuel Dalembert

The two areas that Dalembert has proven he does better than Hawes is shot-blocking and rebounding. That being said, Dalembert is seven years older, makes $11 million more per year, and has hit his ceiling as a player. Addition by subtraction in this instance.

Most Important Player:  Jrue Holiday

If the 76ers had any semblance of a playoff hope, I would say their most important player is Elton Brand. However, I think this is a rebuilding season yet again, and because of that, it will be crucial for their young stars to make strides. Holiday finished his rookie season very strongly with 11.9 points, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 49.0% shooting from the floor after the All-Star break. He's a play-making point guard with tremendous upside, and Philly got glimpses of that last season. If Holiday can build on his strong second half and establish himself as a consistent player and leader, the 76ers will likely consider the season a success.

Rookie Watch:  Evan Turner

The #2 overall pick in this past summer's NBA Draft presents the 76ers with some interesting choices. Turner is a very, very versatile player; he can handle the rock like a point guard, knock down the outside shot like a shooting guard, and is big enough to play at small forward. However, the 76ers have potential franchise players at each of those positions already (Holiday, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young, respectively). Turner will likely play most of the year as a bench player, which will allow him to take charge of the second unit. His development will likely determine what direction the team goes in the coming years.

2010-2011 Season Outlook:  3rd

The 76ers have some great young talent and this season will be another 82 games of development for those guys. Most importantly, they need to figure out who can gel together and become the core group that strong teams possess. Will it be a combination of Holiday-Iguodala-Young-Hawes as it is now? Or maybe Holiday-Turner-Iguodala-Hawes? The rookie gives them lots of flexibility, and now they have basically a full season to figure out what works. That being said, they have enough talent to still remain competitive, but I don't think a playoff spot will result.

New Jersey Nets

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  12-70
Division Finish:  5th
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Jordan Farmar, Troy Murphy

Although these two signings did not gain national attention, I thought they were both great deals. I have watched Farmar play beginning his UCLA days and then the past four seasons in Los Angeles. Although Farmar may never be a good starting point guard in the NBA, he is as solid of a backup as you can get it; just ask the back-to-back champion Lakers. He handles the ball well, is unselfish, and has good energy.

Murphy, on the other hand, is probably not known outside of the cities of his two previous teams, Golden State and Indiana. However, Murphy has been in the league for nine years now, and has always been a solid contributor. Last season in Indiana, the 6'11" power forward averaged 14.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game while shooting 38% from beyond the arc. You can never go wrong with a near 7-footer who rebounds and shoots the trey.

Key Losses:
Yi Jianlian

I guess the Nets were fed up with waiting on Yi to develop into the player that he was projected to be. After just two seasons in Jersey, Yi was released and then signed by the Washington Wizards this offseason. Yi actually showed some solid progress last season as he averaged 12.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game while shooting 36% from three. His overall field goal percentage, 40.3%, was pretty low for a guy of his size, but you cannot be surprised because he's more of a perimeter-oriented player. His departure does not change much in New Jersey.

Most Important Player:  Terrence Williams

I am not only rooting for Terrence Williams because he's from my hometown, but also because, well, have you seen this guy play? Williams is a unique breed of basketball player because of his versatility and ridiculous athletic ability. The guy plays in top gear all the time. The Nets had high hopes of him as a rookie, and although he had a rough go for the majority of the year, the young swingman finally started to put it together last April en route to an average of 14.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game. The Nets will not be in contention for the playoffs this season, but if Williams develops into the player they expect, then there is plenty of reason for optimism in the future.

Rookie Watch:  Derrick Favors

All of this talk about potential and optimism and we have not even touched upon Derrick Favors. The No. 3 overall pick in this summer's draft, Favors is a physical specimen at 6'10" and 246 pounds. Favors has lots of raw talent and, if all goes according to plan, will be a monster in the league for years to come. Many people compare Favors to a young Dwight Howard. Interestingly, he left Georgia Tech after  a season in which his production was a bit underwhelming; however, many attribute his lack of dominance (12.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG) to youth/inexperience and guards that could not get him the ball consistently.

2010-2011 Season Outlook:  4th

The Nets cannot be as bad as they were last season, can they? I simply cannot imagine it. They have too much talent to lose another 70 games this season. I have already talked about some good players, but I have yet to even mention the team's two stars:  point guard Devin Harris and center Brooke Lopez. Harris, Wiliams, and Lopez gives the Nets a nice nucleus, and with solid support players like Murphy, Farmar, a young Favors, and guys like Anthony Morrow and Travis Outlaw in place, I think the Nets can more than double their win total from last season and play for fourth place in the Atlantic Division.

Toronto Raptors

2009-2010 Recap:

Record:  40-42
Division Finish:  2nd
Playoffs:  Did Not Qualify

Key Additions:  Linas Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa

Prior to writing this column, I had no idea that the Raptors swooped in on Kleiza and the Brazilian Blur. Both of these guys will be strong adds to a depleted Raptors roster. In four seasons in Denver, Kleiza never really got enough minutes to show what he can truly do. His most productive season was the year before last in which he averaged 11.1 points and 4.3 rebounds in just 23.9 minutes per game. Kleiza is another big guy who can shoot from the outside. With a starting job now secured in Toronto, Kleiza's production should increase.

Barbosa has been one of the best sixth men in the league for years now. In Toronto, he will continue to come off the bench, barring an injury to starting point guard Jose Calderon or starting shooting guard DeMar Derozan. Barbosa's ability to score off the bench, score in bunches, and play energetic basketball would be a valuable addition to any team; Raptors fans should be delighted to have the Brazilian on their squad.

Key Losses:  Chris Bosh

In case you have been on a remote island for the past five months, Bosh decided to join Dwyane Wade and LeBron James in Miami. That leaves the Raptors with a huge void at the power forward spot; Amir Johnson will have fill-in duties for now, and back-up Reggie Evans will also look to contribute. There is no need to sugarcoat Bosh's departure; by leaving, he guaranteed that the 2010-2011 season for the Raptors will be abysmal.

Most Important Player:  Andrea Bargnani

Last season, the Italian center put up some impressive stats:  17.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. He also shot 37.2% from three. With Bosh gone, Bargnani's scoring responsibilities will increase, but so too will the attention that opposing defenses pay to him. It will be interesting to see if Bargnani can hold up for 82 games with the scoring burden on him; if not, will the struggles affect the youngster's confidence in any way?

Rookie Watch: Ed Davis

The Raptors drafted Davis this summer after seeing him play two seasons under Roy Williams at North Carolina. In his sophomore season, Davis averaged 13.4 points and 9.6 rebounds in only 27.9 minutes per game. He is a big bodied guy who plays well down low. He is still pretty raw, but oozes potential. It looks like he will start third on the depth chart at power forward behind Johnson and Evans, so he may not get any meaningful minutes this season.

2010-2011 Season Outlook:  5th

The Raptors finished on the cusp of the playoffs last season after they finished 40-42. I cannot imagine how they get back to the 40-win mark this season, or even the 30-win mark for that matter. Bosh is not only one of the Eastern Conference's best players, but the only one in Toronto's lineup that generates any sort of fear in opponents. I think the Raptors win about 20 games this season. Most important for the organization, however, is not the win-loss record, but the development of young up-and-comers like Derozan, Bargnani, and Ed Davis.

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