The New York Yankees are one series away from having the opportunity to defend their crown. Tomorrow evening, the American League Championship series between said Yankees and the Texas Rangers begins in Arlington. While the ALCS does not have as much hype as the NLCS in terms of pitching matchups, the offensive star power in this series is second to none. Let's take a look at how the hitting, pitching, and managing of the two squads compare.
Schedule
Game 1 - October 15, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 2 - October 16, 2010 @ 4:00 p.m. ET
Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis
Game 3 - October 18, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
Cliff Lee vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 4 - October 19, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
Tommy Hunter vs. A.J. Burnett
Game 5 - October 20, 2010 @ 4:00 p.m. ET*
Game 6 - October 22, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET*
Game 7 - October 23, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET*
*If necessary, pitching probables to be determined
Starting Pitching
Much has been made about Cliff Lee not starting in Game 1 as a result of having pitched in the fifth and final game of the Rangers' first-round series against the Rays. Basically, what this means is that the Rangers will not have the luxury of matching ace against ace (Lee vs. Sabathia) in games one and five (assuming Sabathia pitches game five). However, this gives them the opportunity to throw Lee in Game 7, if they are fortunate enough to make it that far.
That being said, it all sets up some interesting pitching matchups at least through the first four games. Game 1 pits two left-handers against each other. Sabathia's name obviously garners much more attention, but do not sleep on C.J. Wilson. The reliever-turned-starter has been absolutely terrific all season long (.217 opponents batting average, 7.50 K/9, 3.35 ERA). And in his first career postseason start last week against Tampa Bay, Wilson gave the Rangers 6.1 strong innings, allowed no runs, scattered two hits, and struck out seven. I think Game 1 is absolutely pivotal for both teams, but more so for the Rangers in order to give themselves some confidence. My head says CC pulls it out, but my gut says Wilson and the Rangers find a way to steal Game 1.
Hughes versus Lewis is another solid pitching matchup, and Lewis is another pitcher that had a surprising year that many people outside of Texas simply do not know about. Despite Hughes' struggles late in the year, he was able to right the ship and fire seven scoreless innings last Saturday against the Twins; you could hear Yankees fans collectively sigh each time Hughes put another zero up on the scoreboard. I think Lewis has been the more consistent pitcher, but Hughes has more talent. It will be a good battle of wills.
Game 3 might present the best matchup of the series. Cliff Lee's playoff domination is well-documented. The guy is lights out in the postseason. He has killed the Yankees before, and based on his performances in the ALDS, he is poised to do it again. Pettitte was a complete wild card going into the Yankees' series versus the Twins, but a strong 7-inning, 1-run performance put any doubt to rest. I think Girardi made a very interesting decision by switching Pettitte and Hughes in the second and third games. I actually believe it will turn out to be a bad move; Pettitte is one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history and I would rather win or lose with him than win or lose with Hughes.
Game 4 is a complete toss-up, but I give a slight edge to the Rangers with Tommy Hunter simply because Burnett is a 4-inning roller coaster every time he goes out to the mound. The knock on Burnett all season long was that, although he has great stuff, he does not have enough mental fortitude to pitch well each start. How do the Yankees expect him to remain mentally strong and focused on the biggest stage? I just don't see it happening.
I think the starting pitching edge has to go to the Yankees for two reasons. First, I think the fact that CC will pitch sooner and possibly more than Lee is a big deal. If the Yankees get up, say, three games to one, then CC will have the chance to pitch in a deciding Game 5, while Lee would have only pitched once to that point. And if CC closes that game out, obviously Lee would not get another start after that. Second, Pettitte is the third best pitcher in this series, and he will be a tremendous asset for the Yankees because of his experience and postseason success. Not only does he give the Yankees a good chance of beating Cliff Lee in New York, but he, like CC, could get two starts in this series, and that is a good thing for the Bronx Bombers; anytime you can get can pitch the all-time postseason wins leader two times in a series, you have to be confident.
Edge: Yankees
Relief Pitching
I give the advantage in the bullpen to the Yankees for three reasons. First, they have momentum. The Yankees bullpen had a great finish to the regular season and performed well in the ALDS versus Minnesota. Yankees relievers pitched seven total innings and allowed only one earned run. Meanwhile, the Rangers' bullpen was roughed up a bit versus the Rays; they pitched 14 total innings and gave up 8 earned runs, including one by heralded young closer Neftali Feliz. But the aforementioned stats lead me to my next point…
The Yankees bullpen is rested and fresh. Not only have they pitched half of the innings that the Rangers' pen has pitched, but two of their relievers, Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre, have not even gotten any work! Sure, you could say that they may be rusty, but let's be honest, it simply means that the starters have gotten deep into ball games and that they have fully energized arms at their disposal.
And finally, I give the relief pitching advantage to the Yanks because they have Mariano Rivera and the Rangers do not. Rivera's presence will tilt the bullpen war in favor of New York in any series against any team simply because he is the best postseason relief pitcher in history. The numbers speak for themselves.
Edge: Yankees
Offense
Most of the Yankees hitters so far this postseason are seeing the ball well and getting nice hits as a result. Guys like Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Mark Teixeira, who produced all season long, are producing now when it counts (combined 12-for-25). However, there have been two big surprises to this point in the playoffs. First, the lack of production from Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod proved last postseason that he can be a big-time performer, and although 3-for-11 is not horrendous, it is not a line fit for an MVP, either. That being said, I think the Yankees have enough pop in their lineup to survive a subpar series or two by A-Rod. But perhaps even bigger of a surprise has been Curtis Granderson. The new Yankee turned up the heat late in the season and his hot-hitting has parlayed into the postseason. Grandy went 5-for-11 against Minnesota with a key triple in Game 1 to start a rally against Francisco Liriano. Granderson, after making some modifications to his swing, has suddenly found a sweet stroke against lefties, who historically have given him trouble. Well, Texas has two great lefties in Lee and Wilson, so Granderson's new swing and hot streak will be put to the test.
For the Rangers, two hitters have stood out thus far: Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz. The irony is that Kinsler and Cruz have been, for the most part, disappoints this season. Kinsler was injured for part of the season and even when healthy lost all power and speed in his game. Cruz sped out of the gate quickly but then plateaued and fell back to mediocrity. In the ALDS versus Tampa, the two combined to hit 16-for-38 with 3 home runs and 9 RBI. But the rest of the lineup has been pretty quiet. Most notably, the Rangers are not getting production from two of their most important hitters, Michael Young and MVP-candidate Josh Hamilton. Young is only 3-for-20 and has struck out six times; Hamilton, still trying to find his groove after missing one month due to injuries, has been even worse at 2-for-18 with six strikeouts.
Again, I have to give the edge to the Yanks. They have a deeper lineup and only one of their hitters is slumping (A-Rod), and he is barely slumping. The Rangers offense relies too much on Young and Hamilton for them to endure another series of their struggles and still make it out alive. Finally, the Yankees hitters have more playoff experience, and that goes a long way. They know how to work the counts and they know how to disrupt a pitcher's rhythm. Ultimately, they are just more complete and have a better chance of surviving minor hitting blips.
Edge: Yankees
Managing
I really have not seen Ron Washington manage much this season. He had the controversial moment before the season when he admitted to his cocaine use. But beyond that, I just don't know much about him and his managing style. I have seen Girardi manage plenty this year; I have doubted many of his decisions and have lauded many others. The bottom line is, he won a championship last season, and he has put his squad in a position to repeat. It is tough to argue against that. But I will reserve my judgment in this regard because of my lack of information. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of Ron Washington can shed some light on this matchup.
Edge: N/A
Series Outlook
While I can imagine the Rangers pulling off the upset, I do not think it will happen. The Yankees are too deep on offense, too deep in the bullpen, and have considerable advantages with starting pitching experience and matchups.
Yankees win in 5 games and advance to the World Series to face the Phillies.
Schedule
Game 1 - October 15, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 2 - October 16, 2010 @ 4:00 p.m. ET
Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis
Game 3 - October 18, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
Cliff Lee vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 4 - October 19, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
Tommy Hunter vs. A.J. Burnett
Game 5 - October 20, 2010 @ 4:00 p.m. ET*
Game 6 - October 22, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET*
Game 7 - October 23, 2010 @ 8:00 p.m. ET*
*If necessary, pitching probables to be determined
Starting Pitching
Much has been made about Cliff Lee not starting in Game 1 as a result of having pitched in the fifth and final game of the Rangers' first-round series against the Rays. Basically, what this means is that the Rangers will not have the luxury of matching ace against ace (Lee vs. Sabathia) in games one and five (assuming Sabathia pitches game five). However, this gives them the opportunity to throw Lee in Game 7, if they are fortunate enough to make it that far.
That being said, it all sets up some interesting pitching matchups at least through the first four games. Game 1 pits two left-handers against each other. Sabathia's name obviously garners much more attention, but do not sleep on C.J. Wilson. The reliever-turned-starter has been absolutely terrific all season long (.217 opponents batting average, 7.50 K/9, 3.35 ERA). And in his first career postseason start last week against Tampa Bay, Wilson gave the Rangers 6.1 strong innings, allowed no runs, scattered two hits, and struck out seven. I think Game 1 is absolutely pivotal for both teams, but more so for the Rangers in order to give themselves some confidence. My head says CC pulls it out, but my gut says Wilson and the Rangers find a way to steal Game 1.
Hughes versus Lewis is another solid pitching matchup, and Lewis is another pitcher that had a surprising year that many people outside of Texas simply do not know about. Despite Hughes' struggles late in the year, he was able to right the ship and fire seven scoreless innings last Saturday against the Twins; you could hear Yankees fans collectively sigh each time Hughes put another zero up on the scoreboard. I think Lewis has been the more consistent pitcher, but Hughes has more talent. It will be a good battle of wills.
Game 3 might present the best matchup of the series. Cliff Lee's playoff domination is well-documented. The guy is lights out in the postseason. He has killed the Yankees before, and based on his performances in the ALDS, he is poised to do it again. Pettitte was a complete wild card going into the Yankees' series versus the Twins, but a strong 7-inning, 1-run performance put any doubt to rest. I think Girardi made a very interesting decision by switching Pettitte and Hughes in the second and third games. I actually believe it will turn out to be a bad move; Pettitte is one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history and I would rather win or lose with him than win or lose with Hughes.
Game 4 is a complete toss-up, but I give a slight edge to the Rangers with Tommy Hunter simply because Burnett is a 4-inning roller coaster every time he goes out to the mound. The knock on Burnett all season long was that, although he has great stuff, he does not have enough mental fortitude to pitch well each start. How do the Yankees expect him to remain mentally strong and focused on the biggest stage? I just don't see it happening.
I think the starting pitching edge has to go to the Yankees for two reasons. First, I think the fact that CC will pitch sooner and possibly more than Lee is a big deal. If the Yankees get up, say, three games to one, then CC will have the chance to pitch in a deciding Game 5, while Lee would have only pitched once to that point. And if CC closes that game out, obviously Lee would not get another start after that. Second, Pettitte is the third best pitcher in this series, and he will be a tremendous asset for the Yankees because of his experience and postseason success. Not only does he give the Yankees a good chance of beating Cliff Lee in New York, but he, like CC, could get two starts in this series, and that is a good thing for the Bronx Bombers; anytime you can get can pitch the all-time postseason wins leader two times in a series, you have to be confident.
Edge: Yankees
Relief Pitching
I give the advantage in the bullpen to the Yankees for three reasons. First, they have momentum. The Yankees bullpen had a great finish to the regular season and performed well in the ALDS versus Minnesota. Yankees relievers pitched seven total innings and allowed only one earned run. Meanwhile, the Rangers' bullpen was roughed up a bit versus the Rays; they pitched 14 total innings and gave up 8 earned runs, including one by heralded young closer Neftali Feliz. But the aforementioned stats lead me to my next point…
The Yankees bullpen is rested and fresh. Not only have they pitched half of the innings that the Rangers' pen has pitched, but two of their relievers, Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre, have not even gotten any work! Sure, you could say that they may be rusty, but let's be honest, it simply means that the starters have gotten deep into ball games and that they have fully energized arms at their disposal.
And finally, I give the relief pitching advantage to the Yanks because they have Mariano Rivera and the Rangers do not. Rivera's presence will tilt the bullpen war in favor of New York in any series against any team simply because he is the best postseason relief pitcher in history. The numbers speak for themselves.
Edge: Yankees
Offense
Most of the Yankees hitters so far this postseason are seeing the ball well and getting nice hits as a result. Guys like Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Mark Teixeira, who produced all season long, are producing now when it counts (combined 12-for-25). However, there have been two big surprises to this point in the playoffs. First, the lack of production from Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod proved last postseason that he can be a big-time performer, and although 3-for-11 is not horrendous, it is not a line fit for an MVP, either. That being said, I think the Yankees have enough pop in their lineup to survive a subpar series or two by A-Rod. But perhaps even bigger of a surprise has been Curtis Granderson. The new Yankee turned up the heat late in the season and his hot-hitting has parlayed into the postseason. Grandy went 5-for-11 against Minnesota with a key triple in Game 1 to start a rally against Francisco Liriano. Granderson, after making some modifications to his swing, has suddenly found a sweet stroke against lefties, who historically have given him trouble. Well, Texas has two great lefties in Lee and Wilson, so Granderson's new swing and hot streak will be put to the test.
For the Rangers, two hitters have stood out thus far: Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz. The irony is that Kinsler and Cruz have been, for the most part, disappoints this season. Kinsler was injured for part of the season and even when healthy lost all power and speed in his game. Cruz sped out of the gate quickly but then plateaued and fell back to mediocrity. In the ALDS versus Tampa, the two combined to hit 16-for-38 with 3 home runs and 9 RBI. But the rest of the lineup has been pretty quiet. Most notably, the Rangers are not getting production from two of their most important hitters, Michael Young and MVP-candidate Josh Hamilton. Young is only 3-for-20 and has struck out six times; Hamilton, still trying to find his groove after missing one month due to injuries, has been even worse at 2-for-18 with six strikeouts.
Again, I have to give the edge to the Yanks. They have a deeper lineup and only one of their hitters is slumping (A-Rod), and he is barely slumping. The Rangers offense relies too much on Young and Hamilton for them to endure another series of their struggles and still make it out alive. Finally, the Yankees hitters have more playoff experience, and that goes a long way. They know how to work the counts and they know how to disrupt a pitcher's rhythm. Ultimately, they are just more complete and have a better chance of surviving minor hitting blips.
Edge: Yankees
Managing
I really have not seen Ron Washington manage much this season. He had the controversial moment before the season when he admitted to his cocaine use. But beyond that, I just don't know much about him and his managing style. I have seen Girardi manage plenty this year; I have doubted many of his decisions and have lauded many others. The bottom line is, he won a championship last season, and he has put his squad in a position to repeat. It is tough to argue against that. But I will reserve my judgment in this regard because of my lack of information. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of Ron Washington can shed some light on this matchup.
Edge: N/A
Series Outlook
While I can imagine the Rangers pulling off the upset, I do not think it will happen. The Yankees are too deep on offense, too deep in the bullpen, and have considerable advantages with starting pitching experience and matchups.
Yankees win in 5 games and advance to the World Series to face the Phillies.
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