 |
| Bringing the House illustration |
Then the Jets organization collectively wet its pants for 36 consecutive days as star cornerback and most-important-player Darrelle Revis held out of training camp and threatened to sit out the season. But one week prior to the team's opener versus Baltimore, the Jets mopped up the situation by giving Revis a new 4-year, $46 million deal.
And finally, the Jets opened their training camp doors to HBO's film crew as the feature team for this season's Hard Knocks television series. For those of you who did not watch the show, it was the most captivating and surreal sports-related content--outside of LeBron James' Decision--of the summer. Head coach Rex Ryan stole the spotlight as he laced each episode with expletive-filled rants. He was loud, boisterous, confrontational, and controversial; he was the perfect reality television personality. And he took plenty of heat for it, too.
Broadway show aside, the Jets entered the season as confident as ever. Everyone expected the nasty defense from last season to pick up right where it left off. Young quarterback Mark Sanchez, one year removed from his rookie season, had matured during the offseason. The team got younger and more skilled through personnel changes. Heck, the city even built a beautiful new stadium for them. It seemed like everybody was on the Jets bandwagon screaming J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS!
But after a pathetic performance in week one against the Ravens on Monday Night Football, let's put things into perspective and hold off on crowning the boys from the Meadowlands. Unlike many of the analysts on TV, I am not going to second-guess the Jets and what they did during the offseason. I, as a matter of fact, thought the Hard Knocks series was great. It was enjoyable, it brought publicity to a team that not many people outside of New York knew about, and I actually think the way everyone behaved seemed pretty natural. In other words, I don't think the show cost them anything in terms of productivity or performance.
Ultimately, my prognosis of the Jets and how their season plays out boils down to one simple fact: The Jets have a lot of great pieces that can help them reach and even win the Super Bowl; however, they lack the most important one--a legitimate quarterback/passing attack. Before I get into my argument, let me preface it by reminding you that I am a huge Mark Sanchez fan. Of all the quarterbacks I have witnessed since I donned the cardinal and gold, Sanchez is by far my favorite. I love the way he plays the game. I think he's got lots of talent and a bright future in the league. To this day, I still believe that had Sanchez stayed in college for his senior season, USC would have won the national championship that year. But I will save that discussion for another time. My point is that I am in no way anti-Mark Sanchez. So any criticism that I dish out is a product of objective analysis and not subjective dislike. USC/Jets/Sanchez fans, brace yourselves…
The Jets cannot win the Super Bowl this season because Mark Sanchez is not a good enough quarterback at this stage in his career. Maybe in a few years, but definitely not this year. I know Jets fans argue that the Jets brand of football (run-heavy, tenacious defense) can hide a mediocre/undeveloped quarterback. Many football fans subscribe to the belief that you don't need a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady to win the Super Bowl. Instead, they say, you can survive with a quarterback that manages the game and minimizes mistakes. To be fair, I used to believe in that philosophy. But in reality, it just doesn't work. Success in today's National Football League is increasingly related to a team's ability to throw the football. Sure, running is great. You can control the tempo and the clock and pound the other team into the ground. But at the end of the day you better be able to air it out if you want to win, or even make it to, the big one.
Going back to the 2002 Super Bowl, here are the two starting quarterbacks in each Super Bowl and the number of passes that each player attempted that season:
2009: Drew Brees (514); Peyton Manning (571)
2008: Ben Roethlisberger (469); Kurt Warner (598)
2007: Eli Manning (529); Tom Brady (578)
2006: P. Manning (557); Rex Grossman (480)
2005: Roethlisberger (268); Matt Hasselbeck (449)
2004: Brady (474); Donovan McNabb (469)
2003: Brady (527); Jake Delhomme (449)
2002: Brad Johnson (451); Rich Gannon (618)
If you take the average of those numbers you arrive at 500 pass attempts per season (Side note: the average should be higher because Roethlisberger's 2005 season total comes from only 12 games played). How many pass attempts did Sanchez have last season? 364. How many is he on pace for this season? 336. While the 500-pass attempt average is certainly not a prerequisite to Super Bowl participation, history indicates that you would rather be over 400 attempts than under. In short, you not only need to be able to throw the ball, but you actually need to throw a decent amount of the time!
It is important to note that when you do throw the football, you don't necessarily need to shatter any passing records. The above quarterbacks vary when it comes to touchdown-to-interception ratio and quarterback rating. As you can see, the numbers run the gamut:
Highest TD:INT ratio - Brady: 50 TD, 8 INT (2007)
Lowest TD:INT ratio - Roethlisberger: 17 TD, 15 INT (2008)
Highest QB rating - Brady: 117.2 (2007)
Lowest QB rating - Grossman and E. Manning: 73.9 (2006 and 2007, respectively)
By comparison, Sanchez threw 12 touchdowns to 20 interceptions last season and had a quarterback rating of 63.0. While those numbers aren't pretty, they aren't too far off from the low-end of the spectrum. But in order to improve on his statistics, Sanchez needs to have more opportunities to throw the football. Unfortunately, judging by what Rex Ryan and the coaching staff said all of last season and this offseason, the young up-and-comer won't get those chances. As a result, the Jets can kiss their lofty Super Bowl hopes goodbye.
No comments:
Post a Comment