Sunday, September 19

Assessing the Pac-10 After "Measuring Stick Saturday"


Coming into this weekend, many thought that the Pac-10 was college football's deepest conference. Through the first two weeks, Pac-10 teams delivered impressive performances. Oregon and Arizona have reached the end zone at will; Oregon put up 72 and 48 points against New Mexico and Tennessee, respectively, and Arizona lit Toledo and Citadel up for 41 and 52 points, respectively. Clearly, the Pac-10 can score. Meanwhile, on the defensive side, Arizona has yet to allow a touchdown and California's defense has only given up 5 points per game. Furthermore, in terms of individual accomplishments, the conference is filled with Heisman hopefuls, especially at the quarterback position; UW's Jake Locker, USC's Matt Barkley, Arizona's Nick Foles, and Stanford's Andrew Luck have all gotten off to quick starts.

But on the flip side, Pac-10 teams have only played cupcakes to this point. While conference play will certainly test each team as it does every season, only tough, non-conference matchups can truly measure where the Pac-10 teams lie in relation to teams in the national picture. Fortunately, or perhaps unfortunately, this weekend provided a slew of difficult out-of-conference challenges. Let's take a look at how the Pac-10 teams measured up.

California 31 - Nevada 52

Measuring Stick Saturday technically commenced on Friday night as the Cal Bears visited the Nevada Wolf Pack. Cal has looked pretty solid thus far, led by senior quarterback Kevin Riley, dynamic running back Shane Vereen, and a tenacious defense that puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I had the opportunity to see Cal impressively defeat Colorado last weekend, so my opinion of the team goes beyond highlights on SportsCenter.

The strong pass rush I witnessed against Colorado did not show up against Nevada, mostly because the Wolf Pack kept Cal's front seven on its heels by pounding the ball on the ground with rock-solid Vai Taua. The senior running back rushed 25 times for 151 yards and 1 touchdown. Nevada also let QB Colin Kaepernick utilize his dual-threat abilities as he added another 148 yards on the ground to give the team 316 total rushing yards. With a rushing attack like that, it is no wonder why Cal's front four did not record a sack on Friday night.

On the offensive side of the ball, Kevin Riley had a terrible game. Although he threw for 277 yards, Riley threw 3 interceptions to only 1 touchdown. Cal will definitely need better performances from Riley in the future if they intend to be a factor in the Pac-10 hunt. Meanwhile, on a more encouraging note for Bears fans, Vereen had a great night on the ground rushing for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns.

I would like to note that the final score of this game is a bit misleading. Cal was within one score (down 24-31) with 5:14 left in the third quarter. But from that point on, Nevada outscored them 21-7. I did not expect Cal to put forth such a poor showing, but Nevada is no slouch. Back to drawing board for the Bears as they host a red-hot Arizona team next weekend.

Portland State 0 - Oregon 69

Nobody expected this to game to be close. It certainly wasn't part of the much-advertised Measuring Stick Saturday because Portland State does not qualify as a "tough, non-conference team." Oregon continued its assault on opposing defenses as they nearly put up 70 points for the second time this season. The Ducks put up 668 total yards, with 528 of those coming on the ground. The star of the game was LaMichael James who rushed for 227 yards on only 14 carries (16.2 yards per carry). That's probably the most indicative stat of this blowout. The Ducks travel to Arizona State next weekend, which should be, at the very least, a more competitive game than this.

Washington State 21 - Southern Methodist 35

Sometimes people forget that the Cougars are part of the Pac-10. This was SMU's first win over a team from a BCS conference since the year 2000. Enough said. WSU looks to continue its losing ways in front of its own fans next weekend against USC.

Houston 13 - UCLA 31


This outcome was a particular shock because UCLA has looked more like a Pop Warner team as of late. Houston has won of the more potent offenses in the country and nobody had any idea how Kevin Prince and company would keep up. Well, that is, until reports surfaced that Houston QB Case Keenum was still not fully recovered from last week's concussion. That gave the boys in Westwood a glimmer of hope. If Keenum would be unable to play, then Houston's offense would not be able to operate in its highest gear, and then maybe, if lightning struck, UCLA could make it a game.

It was clear Keenum was not 100% from the get-go. Although he was an accurate 10-for-18, he only passed for 83 yards, which means he only attempted 4.6 yards per pass, far below his season norm. In addition, Keenum threw for 2 interceptions and re-injured himself while chasing down the defender who picked off his second ball. Keenum's backup, Cotton Turner, was also injured, and Houston was forced to strip a freshman (Terrence Broadway) of his redshirt status and throw him in the game. Broadway performed quite well concerning the circumstances, but it was nowhere near enough for the Cougars.

To be fair, UCLA's offense earned this victory. Sophomore running back Johnathan Franklin led the ground attack with 26 rushes for 158 yards and 3 scores. The Bruins had 266 total yards on the ground, which meant that Prince did not have to throw the ball very often. In fact, Prince ended the game with a pathetic line:  9-for-17, 99 yards, 1 interception. If the Bruins intend on making Franklin the main cog in the offensive game plan, then fans better expect opponents to stack the box against him and make Prince throw the ball. So far this season Prince has not shown that he can play quarterback at the college level, despite all the hype coming into his second season. Through three games, Prince is
24-for-54, 258 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. By comparison, USC's Matt Barkley was 18-for-23, 257 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT in one game versus Hawaii.

USC 32 - Minnesota 21

The Trojans held their own today against the Gophers. Read my complete quarter-by-quarter recap and analysis.

Louisville 28 - Oregon State 35
Are the Beavers the Pac-10's most disappointing team so far? Look, I know they are 1-1 with their lone loss coming in a tough game against a top-5 TCU team on national TV in what was basically an away game. But having a bye week to recover from that loss and then a home game against a middling Louisville squad, you would figure Mike Riley would get his boys to fire on all cylinders. But that was not the case Saturday night in Corvallis.

While the formidable Jacquizz Rodgers did his part (24 carries, 132 yards, 2 TD and 5 catches, 22 yards, 1 TD), the defense disappointed. The Beavers allowed 453 total yards to the Cardinals, including 288 through the air to Louisville QB Adam Froman who only mustered 127 and 219 yards in previous outings versus Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky, respectively. But most disappointing for coach Riley was the fact that the defense allowed the Cardinals to climb back into the game late. The Cardinals scored the final 14 points in the game and came within a touchdown of tying it up. Fortunately, the Beavers managed to pick off a ball late to seal the win.

Arizona State 19 - Wisconsin 20

The Sun Devils kept this contest a lot closer than I thought they would. The game came down to the wire and the 1-point difference was due to a blocked extra point in the fourth quarter (Side note:  Blocked PATs have occurred so often lately and they have such far-reaching repercussions, but most fans simply dismiss them when they happen in real-time).

Arizona State played a very clean ball game on the whole. They did not turn the ball over, but they did not force any turnovers, either. They ran the ball well:  28 team carries for 169 yards. And quarterback Steven Threet went 21-for-33 for 211 yards, but no touchdowns. It was a Big-10 type of game against a Big-10 opponent in a Big-10 stadium. Arizona State does not have the same speed and athleticism that USC, Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State have. And because of that they came up just short.

The Sun Devils' problems came mostly from not being able to stop Wisconsin running back John Clay and not being able to get any pressure, beyond one sack, on quarterback Scott Tolzien. Wisconsin was missing its top two wide receivers, most notably star wideout Nick Toon. Regardless of whether Toon was in or out, the Sun Devils knew to expect a heavy dose of Clay. And that's exactly what they received. Clay carried the ball 22 times for 123 yards and 1 touchdown. But beyond the numbers, it was Clay's ability to gain yards and burn the clock that hurt ASU. With 4:09 left in the game, Wisconsin had the ball at its own 27 yard line and ASU desperately needed to get the ball back. Clay and company ran the clock out in the following fashion:
  • Clay rush for no gain
  • Isaac Anderson rush for 5 yards; ASU personal foul penalty
  • Clay rush for 5 yards
  • Clay rush for 3 yards
  • Tolzien pass to Lance Kendricks for 17 yards
  • Clay rush for no gain; Timeout ASU
  • Clay rush for 10 yards; Timeout ASU
  • WISC kneel; Timeout ASU
  • WISC kneel
  • WISC kneel; End of game
Obviously the personal foul penalty and the 17-yard pass were huge. But ASU just couldn't stop Clay, and thus couldn't stop the clock. I think Clay's effectiveness really exposed a weakness in ASU's defense that teams with great running backs can try to take advantage of (think USC, Oregon State, Oregon). That being said, the Sun Devils proved that they are an underrated team this season and they will be ready for the Ducks next weekend in Tempe.

Wake Forest 24 - Stanford 68

I had no doubts that Stanford would easily handle the Demon Deacons. I think Stanford is one of the best teams in the conference and Wake Forest is not a good enough team to defeat the Cardinal in Palo Alto. A couple things stood out during this game.

First, if you haven't seen Andrew Luck play, then you are missing out. Luck is a great young quarterback who is climbing higher up the Heisman ladder with each performance. Tonight, Luck completed an efficient 17-for-23 passes for 207 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the year now he has thrown 10 touchdowns and no interceptions.

It is also interesting that Luck is completing his passes to many different receivers, which may prevent defenses from focusing on one particular receiver down the line. Against Wake Forest, Luck completed a pass to 11 different receivers. Eleven! The Cardinal also showed their ball distribution on the ground as 8 different people recorded at least two carries. Luck got in on the party in a big fashion with a 52-yard touchdown run halfway through the second quarter. I did not realize Luck had above-average wheels.

Finally, Stanford's pass defense looked really solid. Wake Forest QB Tanner Price only completed 8 of 18 passes for 76 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 interception. In Price's previous start against Duke, he went 12-for-19, 190 yards,  and 3 touchdowns. So they limited the passing game to some degree. In addition, although they allowed 207 yards on the ground, the Demon Deacons only recorded 3.9 yards per carry, so they had to rush a whopping 53 times to gain those yards. I thought it was a solid performance for Stanford all around.

Nebraska 56 - Washington 21

Most of America thought UW did not stand a chance in this game. And I was in that same boat. I know UW has the ability to pull off upsets, especially at raucous Husky Stadium, but sometimes the recipe just isn't right. In this case, it was the recipe, the ingredients, the cook, the tools, and everything else that goes into a complete product. I had the chance to watch the game in its entirety on TiVo, so I want to provide a more in-depth analysis in a subsequent post, but here are a couple takeaways, in short.

First, UW simply cannot stop the run-option. They have trouble with it every season, and to be fair, plenty of teams do. But UW seriously has no chance against it. And Taylor Martinez and the Cornhuskers ran it to perfection earlier today. We already know about Martinez' prior performances, but this was his first road game, and he stepped up in a gigantic way. The young star rushed 19 times for 137 yards and 3 touchdowns. He added 150 yards and another score through the air. Nebraska also had two other players rush for over 100 yards a piece. That means three players rushed for 100 yards each. Is that even possibly in a four-quarter football game? Apparently so.

Second, Jake Locker is overrated. I need to develop an entire column to this topic because it really bothers me like no other in college football today. People say this guy is going to be the number one pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Has there ever been a top overall pick with such a horrendous win-loss throughout his collegiate career? I think the "surrounding talent" argument is overused. At the end of the day, the great quarterbacks make plays, and Locker doesn't do that. He went 4-for-20 today for 71 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks. He added 59 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. So you're telling me that NFL scouts want this guy to lead their team? He can't throw! And, as I said, the NFL is a passing league! All this talk of Locker being the number one pick and a Heisman contender just does not add up at the end of the day. Someone from the UW camp must have subliminally messaged the entire college football nation.

Finally, after I watched UW post a handful of victories last season, I bought into some of the hype and thought, perhaps, that UW was on its way back up. But with such a terrible start to the season, a disappointing loss tonight, and a ridiculously tough schedule ahead, I am beginning to think otherwise. I think this season is done for the Huskies. Over the course of the next six weeks, the pups from Washington play at USC, home against ASU, home against Oregon State, at Arizona, home against Stanford, and at Oregon. How many of those do you reasonably see them winning? Maybe the Arizona State game? At least the Seahawks are looking decent.

Iowa 27 - Arizona 34

Perhaps the crown jewel of the night, this matchup was dubbed as the game of the week in college football, and it did not disappoint. Arizona got off to a ridiculous start and was able to do just enough to eek out the upset over the Hawkeyes. I am sure most eyes were on this game tonight, so I will keep my comments brief.

I thought Arizona got really lucky tonight. Its first three scores came as a result of Iowa errors and its own special teams play. That's not to say that Arizona did not indirectly cause some of that to happen, but it's not like Arizona drove the ball down the field three straight times in dominant fashion. Iowa's first possession ended on a blocked punt that gave Arizona the ball on the 5-yard line. Foles dumped a short pass to David Douglas to give the Cats a 7-0 lead. On the next drive, Stanzi threw his first interception of the season, but it was ball that his intended receiver had bobbled/tipped and Arizona cornerback Trevin Wade scooped up and returned 85 yards for a touchdown. 14-0 Arizona. Iowa then responded with a touchdown drive of their own, but on the ensuing kickoff, Arizona's Travis Cobb went 100 yards to give the Cats a 21-7 lead and legitimate "upset" status. Arizona added two more field goals to close out the half, and they went into the locker room up 27-7. Stanzi and Iowa were seriously in a funk at that point.

But then the second half began, and Iowa started to get some of its mojo back. More importantly, however, Arizona lost all of its mojo. I felt like the crowd calmed down a bit and the offense sputtered. In fact, the offense did not score again until 3:57 left in the fourth quarter. They went 26 minutes in the second half without scoring, yet still managed to win the game. They even lost the turnover battle 3 to 1.  They were also penalized 12 times for 103 yards! It was just the perfect storm tonight.

While I think a lot of luck was involved, Arizona's defense stepped up in a big way. The defense completely stuffed Iowa's running game (26 carries for 29 yards). And although Stanzi finished with 278 yards, they forced him into a lot of bad throws and got an insane amount of pressure on the quarterback. The defense's performance was summarized best on Iowa's final drive of the game. Down only one score, Iowa elected to go with what was working up to that point in the game--Stanzi's arm. After he completed a 7-yard pass to bring the team near midfield, Arizona dialed up the pressure like a maniac. First, Justin Washington sacked Stanzi for a loss of 9 yards. Iowa called timeout. On the next play, a blitzed actually flattened a blocker and annihilated Stanzi, but the play was blown dead due to a false start. At that point, I figured Iowa would keep an extra blocker in the backfield, but they didn't, and Ricky Elmore busted through the line and sacked Stanzi for a loss of 8 yards back to the Iowa 22 yard line. And on the final play, the Cats topped off a dominant defensive performance with a third consecutive sack (unofficially the fourth), this time again by Justin Washington! It was like an experienced Madden player calling for the Engage Eight blitz out of the 4-3 defense. Beastly.

Finally, I do have to comment on Arizona QB Nick Foles. I thought he played very well tonight, going 28-for-39, 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He made some very nice throws deep and over the middle that impressed me a lot. But I thought at times he forced a lot of balls into tight coverage and was lucky that Iowa did not pick off more passes. His running was completely stifled by the Iowa defense, but in the end it was too little too late for the Hawkeyes.

Overall

As a conference, the Pac-10 went 6-4 during Measuring Stick Saturday/Weekend. Nobody actually includes WSU when talking about the Pac-10 in the national picture, so if we exclude them, the conference went 6-3. The Arizona victory was obviously the biggest in terms of gaining national respect, but it shouldn't shock people that the Pac-10's speed was able to conquer the Big-10's strength. It happens all the time. California was the most disappointing team of the weekend as it delivered a dud against Nevada. And UCLA was probably the biggest surprise for the way it handled Houston.

No comments:

Post a Comment