I am a huge fan of Bill Simmons. I read all of his articles on ESPN.com, I listen to all of his BS Report podcasts, I bought The Book of Basketball the day it came out, and I waited in line to meet him at a book signing at LA Live. I think he is the best sports writer today, and I would love to have a job like his. As some of you may know, Simmons is a huge NFL fan and he openly bets on football games. Him and his frequent guest Cousin Sal are particularly interested in spread betting. Well, it just so happens that ESPN.com features an NFL pick'em contest in which you can pick games based on Vegas lines. I have played the non-spread version of the game almost every season, but this season I am entering the spread version because Simmons has officially created a league (group) for his readers/listeners/followers/fans. The group is called "sportsguy33" and is open to the public. Right now there are over 20,000 contestants in the group. On his most recent podcast, Simmons said that he will be issuing prizes to the top performers in the group (autographed stuff!). Once I heard him talk about it, I immediately signed up and joined the group (this year I was 99% sticking to college football pick'em games, but low and behold...).
I encourage all of you to play the game, and if you are a fan of Simmons, to join the group. For those of you who do not want to play, but are still interested in sports betting, I am going to post my picks each week on this blog. Hopefully my picks will stir up some conversation and debate. Obviously, at the conclusion of each week, I will post my weekly and overall record so you can see how smart/stupid I look. Without further ado, my Week 1 selections (my picks are in bold caps)...
Vikings at SAINTS (-6.5)
DOLPHINS at Bills (+3.5)
LIONS at Bears (-6.5)
Raiders at TITANS (-6.5)
Bengals at PATRIOTS (-5.5)
PANTHERS at Giants (-7.5)
FALCONS at Steelers (+2.5)
Browns at BUCCANEERS (-2.5)
BRONCOS at Jaguars (-2.5)
COLTS at Texans (+3.5)
49ERS at Seahawks (+2.5)
PACKERS at Eagles (+1.5)
Cardinals at RAMS (+3.5)
COWBOYS at Redskins (+3.5)
RAVENS at Jets (-3.5)
CHARGERS at Chiefs (+5.5)
A couple things stand out to me after looking at this week's lines and making my picks. First, I think there are some lines that were very easy to take, such as Chargers, Colts, and Packers. Although the Bolts will be without star wideout Vincent Jackson, the team still has one of the best quarterbacks in the game and plenty of other weapons for him to target. They are the cream of the crop in a mediocre AFC West, and although Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place for opposing teams to play, I think they can beat the Chiefs by a touchdown. The Colts line was perhaps the easiest to choose because of how dominant the Colts are in the regular season year after year. They open every season very strong and I don't see this year as being any different. I know the Texans are trendy, but not that trendy. Colts by one touchdown is being conservative in my mind. And finally, the Packers will put up plenty of points week to week, and I think their defense is strong enough to stymie an unproven Kevin Kolb in his first start of his first full season. If this game were played in, let's say, Week 8, after Kolb had made his mid-season adjustments, perhaps I would choose differently.
As always, in any pick'em game, college or pro, spread or non-spread, I think it's always necessary to take some risks and go against the grain. I went with the Lions at +6.5 over the Bears, mainly because I think the Lions will be improved in season two of the Matthew Stafford Experience. That and the Bears don't really impress me that much. It's worth a shot!
Season record: 0-0 (obviously)
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