Image by Brad McDowell via Flickr
Before I dive in, it must be noted that I am wearing a huge grin as I write this post because about two weeks ago in my Yahoo fantasy baseball league I dealt away the pitcher that I am about to discuss. And at this very moment, the trade reeks of sheer brilliance.
By the end of June, Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies was a household name. If his no-hitter against the Atlanta Braves didn't catch your attention, then surely the following stat line will: 11-1, 0.93 ERA. Fast forward to the All-Star break and he was the first pitcher since David Wells in 2000 to win 15 games before the midway point. Jimenez's meteoric start was the stuff of legends, and few can compare.
As his fantasy owner I was giddy whenever Jimenez was scheduled to pitch, and I did all I could to watch those games. But what I noticed was he always underperformed, even when he was dominating. Maybe he didn't strike enough guys out for me. Maybe he walked too many guys. Maybe he was always in some sort of trouble. But I just never had a great feeling about him. We know baseball is a game of numbers, and the numbers certainly did support the argument that part of Jimenez's historic start was due to luck (for instance, he posted ridiculous Batting Average on Balls in Play numbers that were inevitably going to come back to Earth). But sports in general have a non-quantifiable element, as well. We hear about them all the time. Michael Jordan had "it." Derek Jeter is a "winner." Someone "digs deep" to overcome the odds. And what struck me most about watching Jimenez's starts was that he didn't have "it." Sure, he can hit 100 on the radar gun and secondary pitches are unfair. But consistent success, and consistent dominance for that matter, requires more than just raw talent or "good stuff." You need the physical abilities, the mental strength, some luck, and "it." Some guys don't have that complete package. Ask Karl Malone.
As of today, Jimenez is 15-2 with a 2.75 ERA.
I predict that he wins no more than 22 games and ends the season with an ERA above 3.20.
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